BASKETBALL ranking, 1/30/2017

[SpaceRaider]

ap poll

Others receiving votes: SMU 69, Xavier 67, USC 29, Wichita St 8, Akron 5, Middle Tennessee 5, VCU 3, Virginia Tech 2, Illinois State 2, New Mexico State 2, Utah 1, Iowa State 1

 

[Hop45]

Iowa State just lost to Vandy. Not sure what their record is, but surprised they got a vote.

 

[SpaceRaider]

coaches poll is out

Others Receiving Votes
Northwestern 73; Southern Methodist 33; Southern California 24; Miami (Fla.) 19; Middle Tennessee 9; North Carolina-Wilmington 8; New Mexico State 7; Nevada 3; Wichita State 3; Indiana 3; Kansas State 1; Akron 1.

 

[dukewayne]

Dang, MT is so close. Makes you wonder what could have been if...GaState...TSU...?

Also heck of a time for fellow conference teams to have performed poorly in ooc.

Good getting votes in both polls. Really good, MT has say if they continue to play great ball and win.

 

[SpaceRaider]

This tells me we need to be focused on the Texas road trip. Cannot afford any complacency. Nine votes means we are still barely showing up on ballots--probably got 6-8 ballots, as points are awarded based on ranking, most likely we got somebody's #24 vote for 2 points. Northwestern is still not there in coaches, though they sneaked in at #25 this week on AP with 4 losses and a 7-2 Big Ten. We need to be somewhere in 85-95 vote range to make it into #25 from what I see from week to week on average. Depends on how #17-25 does this week, and provided we continue to win, will determine when we make it. Think it will happen after Charlotte, means winning next four. Next week??? Possible. Need several upsets and for us to have two solid blowout type wins--more likely #27 or #28, because of our competition. Keep the faith!!!

I suspect from a fan standpoint we need to be concerned about P5 teams, who get hot for a week or two, leap frogging the Raiders as well.

 

[SpaceRaider]

I found this analysis of MT while scanning twitter, fwiw:

http://haslametrics.com/ratings2.php?yr=&tid=4809

 

[dukewayne]

P5 leapfrogging is a real concern. And the only thing we can do is keep winning strong by double digit margins! In the last week, the Blue Raider's RPI has been taking a slow hit...losing about 3-4 spots a game. CBS has us at #38; this time last week #29. We face #313 and #338 according to CBS. Using conventional wisdom, this time next week we may be looking at anything from #42 to #49, should we win. Should we lose.. no chance at a ranking or an at large this year and down into 50's or 60's we go. I still don't trust the NCAA Selection Committee if we lost in the C-USA Tournament...Murray State is proof positive by winning 25 in a row and being ranked, still miss the NCAA's. Tennessee State game is turning into a bad loss, now below 150 at #153. TSU has nine losses now, and five in the OVC--game out of last place n the OVC East. Georgia State is at #118, but only one game out from the Sun Belt lead. TSU could actually miss the 8 team OVC Tournament.

Of course I agree with your stats and logic that follows said stats. The TSU loss is looking worse as the season goes. In my opinion, it was within acceptable range of performance to blow a game at the start of the season considering MT has basically been replacing 3 starters. Throw in a true Frosh as PG to boot. The Ga St loss hurt in closing out ooc play; however, Ga St does appear to be somewhat of a stronger team than TSU. In my opinion, the Ga St loss was a matter of MT letting VCU beat MT twice.

Since ooc play, I've thought that MT could lose 1 or 2 games in conf and still be in contention for an at-large bid. Of course, those 1 or 2 conf losses would have to be on the road vs the other conf teams competing at the top for 1st place in conf. Losing on the road in conf to teams at the bottom of the conf with RPIs in the 300s would be devastating. Losing conf games to teams towards the bottom of the conf would result in a quick ticket to the NIT should MT not win the conf tourney.

One area I'm not so quick to agree with is the association of MT to Murray St being left out of the NCAAs. Looking straight at the numbers, it is a logical conclusion. There is a risk of similar outcome this season due to C-USA as a whole performing terribly ooc. Human nature being what it is, I argue that brand recognition and perception influences people including committee members. I think the Murray St situation from a few years back suggests that the OVC won't be getting any at-large bids for the foreseeable future. C-USA, right or wrong, has more and better brand recognition and cachet. In seasons with enough quality teams and overall conf quality RPI, C-USA is capable of getting 2 or possibly even 3 in the NCAAs. Heck, even with this terrible conf overall rating, C-USA could still get 2 in this season if MT continues to win and only losses 1 more being in the conf championship game.

Somewhat irrelevant, but of interest: Wasn't MT the last OVC team to get an at-large bid to the NCAAs? Generally speaking, the SunBelt seems to be on the cusp as a conf in having enough brand recognition and cachet to get an occasional at-large bid. The SunBelt occupying that space somewhere between confs such as the OVC and C-USA. If I recall correctly, wasn't MT the last SunBelt team to earn an at-large bid to the NCAAs.