To have any semblance of a chance, Rhode Island and Nevada MUST win their tournaments.
Alabama is already in, doesn't matter what happens there. They just steam-rolled Auburn today (which hurts us more)
Louisana needs to win SBC tournament. Them losing in the SBC finals puts another team on the bubble. Cajuns probably wouldn't get in, but their resume is just as valid as ours IMO.
Same goes for Buffalo and the MAC. Likely wouldn't get an at-large, but if they lose in the finals by 1 point or something they're going to have as valid a resume as ours.
ODU or Marshall needs to win CUSA tournament. ODU probably helps more.
Wichita State, Houston, or Cincy needs to win AAC tournament. Any of the 3 will do as the other 2 will receive at-large bids.
That's about it. But realistically, even if 0 bids are stolen and everything goes as planned, I just don't see us getting in. We are 0-3 against Top 50 BPI/RPI.
The committee is going to favor a team like Oklahoma State who has 8 wins against the Top 50. 8 wins against the Top 50 and we have 0. Oklahoma States worst loss is to Kansas State (#60). Lunardi currently has Oklahoma State Last 4 out and MT last 4 in which I adamantly disagree with. The committee is going to favor Okie St. over MT IMO. They have to, they're realistically the better team and playing much better basketball right now (Just blew out #6 Kansas before B12 tournament started)
I'll admit it's going to be close but I think we will be left out in the end because it's very easy for them to do so. No marquee wins, too many bad losses. Our own assistant coach said after the USM game we are realistically an NIT team. That should tell you all you need to know.