Which option should MT take
- Thread starter SpaceRaider
- Start date
Bingo. I just replied to Alan Farley saying that. Pick the best of the worst.
I appreciate all Alan has done for MT, but I hope his aversion to the MAC is not prevailing through the admin folks... it's a worst-case scenario if we are stuck in a garbage CUSA with travel to the middle of the New Mexico desert. It just baffles me that some folks would rather our reputation get trashed by being stuck in a conference with a recently D2 school and that is almost certainly going to disappear when WAC (and ASUN, if they do too) go FBS...
The only reservation I have about the MAC is I wish it was a southern-based conference. It’ll to be weird to be associated with schools from NY, MI, IL, and OH and be the most southern (geographically) school, but I suppose just as weird as the speculated adds from TX and NM. But beggars can’t be choosers, and I’d appreciate the stability. And who knows what’ll happen when the SEC, Big 10, ACC, and PAC12 all break off from the NCAA? That may cause another realignment in the remaining schools left.
It's not just the FCS schools which if it were decent schools would be different. But it literally is anyone who will answer Judy's call. Which from their perspective, why wouldn't they. That's her issue. She is looking at it from their perspective instead of ours.
But we would actually save money in the MAC. It is shorter travel across the board. And with the G5 TV deals about the same (except for AAC which will drop big time next round) we could use the savings.
But we would actually save money in the MAC. It is shorter travel across the board. And with the G5 TV deals about the same (except for AAC which will drop big time next round) we could use the savings.
Bro, we ain't close to anyone now after the CUSA teams bolt. Us and WKU and that's it. Ohio is closer than La Tech and Texas and Floridia.
The views on going to the MAC are based entirely too much on emotion of folks feeling like we've been left behind.
I felt the same way initially, but at this point, I've just reached a point I really don't give a crap anymore. But for those that still care. Some things to consider. As I look at this more strategically particularly from a potential future opportunity and also from a business perspective, I see it differently. I will acknowledge it may be a bit of a gamble but here are the reasons to pass on the MAC.
1. Culture and recruiting. We are not going to be a good fit culturally. It's a northern conference. We are a southern school. The premise of playing all of our games in November on a Tuesday or Wednesday is going to further destroy any chance of recovering what's now a lost fan base. For the same reasons, being in the MAC will impact our recruiting primarily because we will no longer be playing our road games in the south. We will lose brand awareness in the south, because there will no longer be any media attention on MT at local levels south of Tennessee. We can't underestimate the impact that's going to have on recruiting in the places we recruit.
2. If we go to the MAC that's probably our final destination. And for the aforementioned reason it wouldn't be advisable for MT to be a northern conference forever. It will be much, much more difficult to get to the AAC from the MAC than it would from even a dilapidated C-USA. ESPN has been very careful in how it's orchestrated the movement of teams. After Aresco failed at luring MWC that have TV deals with CBS notice they didn't go after any Sun Belt teams. Aresco who is a former ESPN exec, he focused on a league that didn't have a deal with ESPN. It wouldn't mean it's impossible, but it's just going to be much, much more difficult to move from one ESPN league to another.
3. I haven't run up all the numbers yet, but would consider doing it if folks want to see it, but what I'm going to say about finances is that if we leave we are walking away from millions. And I do mean mean millions over the next few years. So, this is where the gamble comes in. If we stay for a few years and collect all this revenue that's going to come in not only will the AD be in a much stronger position financially, those funds can be used to close the deal on these promised facility upgrades. It's that issue - lack of facility progress - that is having the most significant impact on MT's place with other conferences. So, the gamble assumes three years from now we will look better, that there will be another round of moves, and either the SBC or AAC will need to add.
All that said, there are couple of things that also need to happen. Judy needs to be fired. She's done absolutely nothing to make C-USA better. Nothing. Second, if any of the remaining schools are trying to push more schools up from FCS to get to 10 or 12 teams then F that. Go to the MAC ASAP. Only way I think there is any value staying in C-USA is an eight team league in the short term so that us, wkcc, UTEP, La Tech, and FIU can collect. It's kind of like winning the athletic lottery the amount of money that would otherwise be left behind.
I felt the same way initially, but at this point, I've just reached a point I really don't give a crap anymore. But for those that still care. Some things to consider. As I look at this more strategically particularly from a potential future opportunity and also from a business perspective, I see it differently. I will acknowledge it may be a bit of a gamble but here are the reasons to pass on the MAC.
1. Culture and recruiting. We are not going to be a good fit culturally. It's a northern conference. We are a southern school. The premise of playing all of our games in November on a Tuesday or Wednesday is going to further destroy any chance of recovering what's now a lost fan base. For the same reasons, being in the MAC will impact our recruiting primarily because we will no longer be playing our road games in the south. We will lose brand awareness in the south, because there will no longer be any media attention on MT at local levels south of Tennessee. We can't underestimate the impact that's going to have on recruiting in the places we recruit.
2. If we go to the MAC that's probably our final destination. And for the aforementioned reason it wouldn't be advisable for MT to be a northern conference forever. It will be much, much more difficult to get to the AAC from the MAC than it would from even a dilapidated C-USA. ESPN has been very careful in how it's orchestrated the movement of teams. After Aresco failed at luring MWC that have TV deals with CBS notice they didn't go after any Sun Belt teams. Aresco who is a former ESPN exec, he focused on a league that didn't have a deal with ESPN. It wouldn't mean it's impossible, but it's just going to be much, much more difficult to move from one ESPN league to another.
3. I haven't run up all the numbers yet, but would consider doing it if folks want to see it, but what I'm going to say about finances is that if we leave we are walking away from millions. And I do mean mean millions over the next few years. So, this is where the gamble comes in. If we stay for a few years and collect all this revenue that's going to come in not only will the AD be in a much stronger position financially, those funds can be used to close the deal on these promised facility upgrades. It's that issue - lack of facility progress - that is having the most significant impact on MT's place with other conferences. So, the gamble assumes three years from now we will look better, that there will be another round of moves, and either the SBC or AAC will need to add.
All that said, there are couple of things that also need to happen. Judy needs to be fired. She's done absolutely nothing to make C-USA better. Nothing. Second, if any of the remaining schools are trying to push more schools up from FCS to get to 10 or 12 teams then F that. Go to the MAC ASAP. Only way I think there is any value staying in C-USA is an eight team league in the short term so that us, wkcc, UTEP, La Tech, and FIU can collect. It's kind of like winning the athletic lottery the amount of money that would otherwise be left behind.
Last edited:
Only two MAC programs less than a seven hour drive. Currently, there are four not counting Western in C-USA that are less than seven hours. Nearly every MAC road trip sans Ball State and Miami will be a flight. Maybe can throw Ohio U in there as a seven to eight hour bus ride.
West Virginia to the ACC, Memphis to the B12 and MT to the AAC. Probably will take 2 years but it’s going to happen….
That was the issue last round. Isn't anymore. Bow Tie Gee has done well. Plus a lot of the old guard from the ACC is gone.
That being said, WVU fan or not, the ACC has no need to expand and no one is leaving with their grant of rights. I would love to play $h!t Pitt and the castrated turkeys every year. But I don't see it happening.
Now Memphis to B12, yeah. Soon as OU and UT leave which will be soon as I bet a deal will be reached.
But honest question. The AAC is spread out big time. Is it worth that for a better TV deal? But again, will that TV deal be as good next round with these new schools or will it be lower? Of course right now we'd take $1m a year easily.
And MT01....great post above. I actually agree with many many points. But you touched on the biggest one. Judy. I just don't trust her in all this.
Without hesitation, it’s the Mid American Conference for me.
Think branding, institutional values, and level of competition are a good fit. Travel is decent to many universities, sans Buffalo (that’s a flight) and maybe Michigan universities (e.g. fly to Detroit). Toledo and Akron are longer rides, but MT has visited Akron back in the 80s during their OVC stay. MAC is a budget friendly conference for our Olympic sports moreso than traveling three time zones and now made worse with the advent of NMSU Tarleton State, possibly North Dakota State, or UMASS or UCONN entering our conference, or whomever Commissioner Judy rounds up to save her job and C-USA from complete breakup.
It’s either that, independent purgatory, or back to FCS—likely as OVC member (Hello, Beth DeBauche) which sadly admits our 23 year FBS experience in football as a total failure and a ruined image as a regional university.
Think branding, institutional values, and level of competition are a good fit. Travel is decent to many universities, sans Buffalo (that’s a flight) and maybe Michigan universities (e.g. fly to Detroit). Toledo and Akron are longer rides, but MT has visited Akron back in the 80s during their OVC stay. MAC is a budget friendly conference for our Olympic sports moreso than traveling three time zones and now made worse with the advent of NMSU Tarleton State, possibly North Dakota State, or UMASS or UCONN entering our conference, or whomever Commissioner Judy rounds up to save her job and C-USA from complete breakup.
It’s either that, independent purgatory, or back to FCS—likely as OVC member (Hello, Beth DeBauche) which sadly admits our 23 year FBS experience in football as a total failure and a ruined image as a regional university.
There needs to be 3 options:
Best option: Carefully rebuild CUSA with a proper and well thought out expansion of FCS programs.
Worst option: Anything where were stuck in a hodgepodge of junk with UCONN and NMSU.
Make the best of a bad situation option: MAC
Best option: Carefully rebuild CUSA with a proper and well thought out expansion of FCS programs.
Worst option: Anything where were stuck in a hodgepodge of junk with UCONN and NMSU.
Make the best of a bad situation option: MAC
I agree. That's what makes me say MAC. I don't trust Judy to do the best option. And honestly I don't trust CM and McPhee either.
Breakdown of C-USA Revenue Distributions
In 2014, C-USA revenues were about $52 distributed across members. MT and other new members got about one million less than holdover members due to exit and entrance fees but would have been much higher for the holdovers had C-USA not gone to 14 members. Generally speaking C-USA on given year in 3.0 distributes about $30 to $35M. Ergo schools within C-USA receive about $2.5M to $2.7M annually from the league. MT has earned as much as $3.7M a few years ago. About $17M of this comes from the college football playoff. Even with MT and other league members success in the first round of the NCAA Tournament revenue from basketball units is considerably less than CFB playoff revenues.
C-USA does use a performance based metric to distribute revenue in a normal year. Last year MT only got about $1.8M from the league primarily because of our shitty basketball and losing football season. Below I will break down what we will give up by going to the MAC assuming we add three and stay at eight for a few years.
Normal Distributions
We will assume the lower end of the range at $30M for the sake of argument. Normal distributions would be split eight ways at $3.75M.
Exit Fee Revenue
I’ve seen a $3M exit fee in some reporting. Marshall’s beat reporter has put it at $5.6M, but CBS puts it at $4M. Splitting the difference and using a reputable source I’m going to use the $4M as the exit fee. With nine defectors that’s a $36M haul to be split among the five of us left. That comes out to $7.2M per school. Im also going to assume C-USA wil elect to distribute exit and entrance fees over a two year window to entice us not look to jump immediately with a single lump sum which I’ve broken down below.
Entrance Fee Revenue
The three entering the league would be required to submit entrance fees of $2M each or $6M in total which is about another million ($1.2M).
Numbers Breakdown.
Year One
Annual: $3.75M
Exit: $3.6M
Entrance: $1.2M
Total: $8.55
Year Two
Same at $8.55M
Year three would then go to normal distributions only.
Total Two Year Revenue Haul = $17.1M
This compared to what would be $5M or $6M at most in a given year with the 14 team current configuration.
Even if it was spread over three year period it would still be a total of $20+ million instead of the $7.5M we could expect otherwise.
Also, if you’re looking for a comparison the MAC distributes about $2M per school, so over the next three years MTs financial situation would adjust as follows
$6M in revenue distributions.
$4 million exit fee to C-USA (have to assume they would add five to hold it together to collect even more revenue between the remaining three teams).
Entrance fee to the MAC which I believe is $1M though haven’t confirmed that.
So the three year delta would be to give up about $19 million. Probably enough to buy out both coaches and build an indoor practice facility. I would be interest to see if anyone would be willing to change their vote based on these numbers.
In 2014, C-USA revenues were about $52 distributed across members. MT and other new members got about one million less than holdover members due to exit and entrance fees but would have been much higher for the holdovers had C-USA not gone to 14 members. Generally speaking C-USA on given year in 3.0 distributes about $30 to $35M. Ergo schools within C-USA receive about $2.5M to $2.7M annually from the league. MT has earned as much as $3.7M a few years ago. About $17M of this comes from the college football playoff. Even with MT and other league members success in the first round of the NCAA Tournament revenue from basketball units is considerably less than CFB playoff revenues.
C-USA does use a performance based metric to distribute revenue in a normal year. Last year MT only got about $1.8M from the league primarily because of our shitty basketball and losing football season. Below I will break down what we will give up by going to the MAC assuming we add three and stay at eight for a few years.
Normal Distributions
We will assume the lower end of the range at $30M for the sake of argument. Normal distributions would be split eight ways at $3.75M.
Exit Fee Revenue
I’ve seen a $3M exit fee in some reporting. Marshall’s beat reporter has put it at $5.6M, but CBS puts it at $4M. Splitting the difference and using a reputable source I’m going to use the $4M as the exit fee. With nine defectors that’s a $36M haul to be split among the five of us left. That comes out to $7.2M per school. Im also going to assume C-USA wil elect to distribute exit and entrance fees over a two year window to entice us not look to jump immediately with a single lump sum which I’ve broken down below.
Entrance Fee Revenue
The three entering the league would be required to submit entrance fees of $2M each or $6M in total which is about another million ($1.2M).
Numbers Breakdown.
Year One
Annual: $3.75M
Exit: $3.6M
Entrance: $1.2M
Total: $8.55
Year Two
Same at $8.55M
Year three would then go to normal distributions only.
Total Two Year Revenue Haul = $17.1M
This compared to what would be $5M or $6M at most in a given year with the 14 team current configuration.
Even if it was spread over three year period it would still be a total of $20+ million instead of the $7.5M we could expect otherwise.
Also, if you’re looking for a comparison the MAC distributes about $2M per school, so over the next three years MTs financial situation would adjust as follows
$6M in revenue distributions.
$4 million exit fee to C-USA (have to assume they would add five to hold it together to collect even more revenue between the remaining three teams).
Entrance fee to the MAC which I believe is $1M though haven’t confirmed that.
So the three year delta would be to give up about $19 million. Probably enough to buy out both coaches and build an indoor practice facility. I would be interest to see if anyone would be willing to change their vote based on these numbers.
Last edited:
But what happens after year 3?
It would be a short term windfall - but is that worth trading for a stable home?
CUSA's dead. Turn down the MAC, and we're very likely to end up independent, FCS, or in a conference filled with Texas JUCO's.
And I have no confidence that they'd use the money for anything that would make a difference. Like I said in another post, they'll take that cash, re-pave the Tennis Courts, and then add a few easily attainable incentives to everyone's contract, and pat themselves on the back for a job well done.
The one thing you really have to take into consideration is would the stability, media exposure, and recruiting benefit enough to offset giving up $19 million over the next three years? I say no, because stability is the only thing you get. There is slight bump in being to be on ESPN but would be offset significantly by the recruiting impact. Bottom line is the enhanced exposure in the north wouldn't even come close to touching one years worth of those numbers much less over a three year period.
That's where the gamble comes in. See my post above. I'm just not sure the stability is worth giving up the chance to be better. Also, think about the fact it would take us 10 years to make the type of revenue we can bank in three. Going to the MAC is equivalent to what MT always does. Choose the mediocre option. Let's take the risk, build our facilities, and try use those next three years to get ourselves back on the map and attractive to other suitors.
Also, this stability factor is also only a short term solution. MT in the MAC long term is not going to do anything for us. We will be stuck there and I see too many negative consequences by being in the MAC long term.
We can probably argue that M&M can't get us there, which is fair. But if we go to the MAC we're basically giving up at ever being anything.
If you are in charge, i can buy it.
But with M&M in charge, I have zero confidence of this program doing anything to better itself with that $$$, or be forward thinking enough to position ourselves better.
I will say this, I think you are underestimating the impact ESPN has.
If you're an ESPN property, pretty much every game is going to be televised or streamed. If you're not, then you might as well not exist. CBS or whatever we have now is trash.
I also think you're overestimating the "southern"-ness of the new CUSA. If the expansion strategy that's rumored is true - there's going to be no Alabama, Georgia, NC or SC teams, 1 Florida team way the heck down in Miami area, no Mississippi, No Arkansas.
CUSA wants to be Texas based. There's going to be us, one team in Florida, one team in Virginia (i'm not sure I consider Virginia south anymore), and then Connecticut, West Texas and New Mexico, possibly west Missouri, northwest Louisiana. That's not our home. We'll be an outlier there as much as we will be in Ohio/Indiana/Etc.
If I had more faith in A: our leadership and B: the conference, then I would say wait. Tske the money and build.
But I really don't see Judy making it work.
Because of this..
Say we take the money. And say we even build better FB facilities and win a few championships. Will that be enough to get pulled up?
It's a tough ?. Take stability that isn't the best conference for us but is stable. Or take the money and hope there is an opening in the future.
Say LaTech hits a stride the next few years. We take the $ and stay. They win 3 championships let's say and Memphis leaves. AAC takes them instead of us. Will we look back being stuck then and wish we took the MAC now?
But I really don't see Judy making it work.
Because of this..
Say we take the money. And say we even build better FB facilities and win a few championships. Will that be enough to get pulled up?
It's a tough ?. Take stability that isn't the best conference for us but is stable. Or take the money and hope there is an opening in the future.
Say LaTech hits a stride the next few years. We take the $ and stay. They win 3 championships let's say and Memphis leaves. AAC takes them instead of us. Will we look back being stuck then and wish we took the MAC now?
I'm not basing anything on the new C-USA other than collecting the revenue. And then looking to get out as soon as possible thereafter.
CUSA leadership, and MT leadership, have not shown that they can do anything forward-leaning thus far.
I'm surprised so many want the MAC. Joining the MAC is the most Middle Tennessee/McPhee/Massaro thing ever.
Instead of gambling and taking a big risk/reward, you take the easy, mediocre, boring, and safe option.
The options are staying in CUSA where we get a windfall of $$$$, but our conference mates will be less known and could be terrible OR could be great at the FBS level. That windfall of money would allow us to get new coaches, build new facilities, and position ourselves for the next realignment. The concern here is, will McPhee and Massaro actually spend the $$$ to improve our programs, or just use it to pay bills and business as usual stuff? It's a gamble.
OR
Join the MAC where recruiting becomes a huge unknown. We will also lose close to $20 million after you consider CUSA exit fee's, MAC entrance fee's, and the $36 million to be distributed from the 9 teams leaving. We would almost certainly not be able to afford good new facilities by taking this route, but we will have a "stable" conference consisting of very known (and poorly supported) northern schools. Going to the MAC would all but guarantee we take ourselves out of the conversation for the next round of expansion. I personally think this is a terrible option and a very weak choice.
I'm all in for CUSA, the $20 million, focusing on MT, and positioning ourselves for the next expansion by taking all that $$$ and investing it into our coaching staffs, facilities, etc.
With that being said, I fully expect McPhee/Massaro to accept an invitation to the MAC
Instead of gambling and taking a big risk/reward, you take the easy, mediocre, boring, and safe option.
The options are staying in CUSA where we get a windfall of $$$$, but our conference mates will be less known and could be terrible OR could be great at the FBS level. That windfall of money would allow us to get new coaches, build new facilities, and position ourselves for the next realignment. The concern here is, will McPhee and Massaro actually spend the $$$ to improve our programs, or just use it to pay bills and business as usual stuff? It's a gamble.
OR
Join the MAC where recruiting becomes a huge unknown. We will also lose close to $20 million after you consider CUSA exit fee's, MAC entrance fee's, and the $36 million to be distributed from the 9 teams leaving. We would almost certainly not be able to afford good new facilities by taking this route, but we will have a "stable" conference consisting of very known (and poorly supported) northern schools. Going to the MAC would all but guarantee we take ourselves out of the conversation for the next round of expansion. I personally think this is a terrible option and a very weak choice.
I'm all in for CUSA, the $20 million, focusing on MT, and positioning ourselves for the next expansion by taking all that $$$ and investing it into our coaching staffs, facilities, etc.
With that being said, I fully expect McPhee/Massaro to accept an invitation to the MAC
Last edited:
Like we took a risk going to a wobbly CUSA? Look where we are now. The options are either go join a league with Tarleton State, a team that was just D2, that will almost certainly be dead within a couple of years -- or join a stable conference with historic and recent success. Seriously? Folks are acting like CUSA will definitely survive. Um, have y'all not been paying attention?
In all seriousness, what makes you think that the MT leadership would use the funds for the purpose of improving anything or anything forward thinking?
Ive seen nothing from M&M that would lead me to believe that this is something that would likely happen if they were given 20 million to spend.
This is not an administration that, over the past decade, has shown that it wants to commit resources of any kind to put an outstanding product on the field or court.
Good points, and I especially find the ESPN points interesting.
I'm firmly in the camp that all of this matters little with the horrible leadership in place with the 3Ms.
As I posted somewhere around here recently, cash bailouts usually do not work given human nature particularly where poor leadership has been and continues to be involved. More money will likely yield just more of the same failed leadership.
I'm firmly in the camp that all of this matters little with the horrible leadership in place with the 3Ms.
As I posted somewhere around here recently, cash bailouts usually do not work given human nature particularly where poor leadership has been and continues to be involved. More money will likely yield just more of the same failed leadership.
Lots of assumptions in that revenue distribution post. The nine departing members could easily present a financial sweetener to MT-WKU to vote to dissolve the conference. The nine departing save $36M at the expense of two buyouts and votes to dissolve the conference.
Lots of things can happen before the money is actually deposited or withdrawn from the bank account.
Lots of things can happen before the money is actually deposited or withdrawn from the bank account.
Last years tournament units. Though I know there’s a rolling calculation. https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/2021-ncaa-tournament-basketball-fund-units-money/
Fair questions and tough choices all the way around. What is likely true is, it doesn't matter what choice we make because our leadership and administration will continue to fail us with the terrible choices they consistently make. So we are probably screwed whichever way we go.
I would rather take the gamble and try to pocket as much $$$ as possible, assuming our administration will actually put it to good use. If their claims of having 90% of the funds and only needing 10% more are true, then we easily cover that with the windfall of $$$ coming.
I also want to stay in a southern footprint.
I would almost prefer being FCS in a southern conference vs. being FBS in a northern conference. I just really think recruiting is going to be hard for our football program in the MAC. Impossibly hard.
This is me in a nutshell. MAC or drop to a regional FCS and play more local teams. I just have no desire to stay in CUSA v 812 and be the grandfather of a bunch of FBS newbies.
I believe if the conference dissolves, the ncaa credits go to the schools that earned them
Schools departing can't vote and legally can't conspire to kill the conference. Even a sweetner - MT and wkcc can't do it alone. Requires 75% and us two would only represent 40% of the remaining members with a vote.
What was risky about that at the time? There wasn’t a single team in the r Sun Belt at the time that would have said no. Not a single one. I don’t think anyone calculated that we would end up with a commissioner worse than the one we were ridding ourselves of in Benson.
The fact that half of the teams were leaving was at least a little risky... wasn't it? It's not like we went to a stable conference, and we knew it wasn't lol
Obviously not. Glad you recognize BOTH OF THOSE WERE RISKY.
Going to the MAC is not risky - it is the most stable G5 conference. Staying in CUSA is - it is the worst and most unstable G5 conference.
