FOOTBALL New conference realignment rumblings

[MidTennMtneer]

My thought is Clemson and FSU will not win this lawsuit. They knew the terms of the agreement and signed on the dotted line. The ACC may change how their money is distributed, however that will require the approval from the other schools.
FSU and Clemson may have the money to leave under the current terms but that would be a financial disaster.

In my mind, I don't think they are trying to win, but to force the ACC AND ESPN's hands.

If they create instability, then ESPN may say forget this. We want out. Which they have to make that decision by Feb 2025. They can leave no questions asked. Then all schools will have a leg to stand on because the ACC will hold their media rights with no media deal. Negligence.

Why would ESPN want out? They have the SEC all to themselves. They have the CFP all to themselves. The only ACC schools that really bring $ are Clemson, FSU, and UNC. I don't see the SEC taking Clemson or FSU, but UNC gives them a new state. NC St will most likely be forced to tag along too. The rest aren't worth near $40m a year ESPN pays now. Wake Forest? Boston College?

The B12 takes the basketball schools they want and the rest join a G5 backfilled ACC, who then signs a new media deal for significantly less. ESPN gets essentially the same inventory for less money.

It's all essentially a game of chicken.

 

[MTTim]

In my mind, I don't think they are trying to win, but to force the ACC AND ESPN's hands.

If they create instability, then ESPN may say forget this. We want out. Which they have to make that decision by Feb 2025. They can leave no questions asked. Then all schools will have a leg to stand on because the ACC will hold their media rights with no media deal. Negligence.

Why would ESPN want out? They have the SEC all to themselves. They have the CFP all to themselves. The only ACC schools that really bring $ are Clemson, FSU, and UNC. I don't see the SEC taking Clemson or FSU, but UNC gives them a new state. NC St will most likely be forced to tag along too. The rest aren't worth near $40m a year ESPN pays now. Wake Forest? Boston College?

The B12 takes the basketball schools they want and the rest join a G5 backfilled ACC, who then signs a new media deal for significantly less. ESPN gets essentially the same inventory for less money.

It's all essentially a game of chicken.

Unfortunately for everyone outside the SEC and B10, ESPN holds all the cards.
I wish I had gone to law school. This game of chicken seems like fun and doing it with someone else's money.

 

[Sommy]

It does feel like the trend to larger super conferences will continue. As the ACC backfills, it would make sense for AAC and SBC to possibly come together. That would be where I would like to see MT. But as others have mentioned, we have really nothing to offer except a big market and geographically well located with other schools.

 

[mtfblue]

In my mind, I don't think they are trying to win, but to force the ACC AND ESPN's hands.

If they create instability, then ESPN may say forget this. We want out. Which they have to make that decision by Feb 2025. They can leave no questions asked. Then all schools will have a leg to stand on because the ACC will hold their media rights with no media deal. Negligence.

Why would ESPN want out? They have the SEC all to themselves. They have the CFP all to themselves. The only ACC schools that really bring $ are Clemson, FSU, and UNC. I don't see the SEC taking Clemson or FSU, but UNC gives them a new state. NC St will most likely be forced to tag along too. The rest aren't worth near $40m a year ESPN pays now. Wake Forest? Boston College?

The B12 takes the basketball schools they want and the rest join a G5 backfilled ACC, who then signs a new media deal for significantly less. ESPN gets essentially the same inventory for less money.

It's all essentially a game of chicken.

UVA is worth it for the SEC as well adding a new state, also looking west Kansas with basketball adds a new state that is contiguous

 

[mtfblue]

It does feel like the trend to larger super conferences will continue. As the ACC backfills, it would make sense for AAC and SBC to possibly come together. That would be where I would like to see MT. But as others have mentioned, we have really nothing to offer except a big market and geographically well located with other schools.

why pay an exit fee and entrance for the same prize you have an easier path to the cfp in cusa.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

why pay an exit fee and entrance for the same prize you have an easier path to the cfp in cusa.

It all depends on the lawsuits. If, big if, somehow it is determined exit fees can't be enforced, it opens a huge can of worms. Most likely though everyone will come to a settlement to prevent that can opening.

But either way this will take a few years and by then the MAC will have a new deal as theirs expires in '27, the AAC could possibly begin negotiations as theirs ends in '32, SBC in '31, and CUSA with a GOR expiring in '27 will be up for negotiation for sure.

By then a lot will be sorted out and if we go somewhere we will have a better picture of where the best place to be is and most likely without even paying.

EDIT...I knew I saw the '27 somewhere.

 

[MTLynn]

 

[AustinLewis]

My thought is Clemson and FSU will not win this lawsuit. They knew the terms of the agreement and signed on the dotted line. The ACC may change how their money is distributed, however that will require the approval from the other schools.
FSU and Clemson may have the money to leave under the current terms but that would be a financial disaster.

IMO, the FSU / Clemson / ACC fiasco will end in some sort of compromise / settlement that reduces the cost for FSU / Clemson, ensures security for ACC, and allows FSU / Clemson to move to a conference with a ESPN contract

ACC will backfill & trickle down could affect MT.

But the BIGGER issue for MTSU is creating that winning culture that attracts fans, gains attention of media, and makes MT a desirable brand. BuildBlueNow Phase 2 will need to see some level of progress within the next 12-18 months (which is likely) as well.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

IMO, the FSU / Clemson / ACC fiasco will end in some sort of compromise / settlement that reduces the cost for FSU / Clemson, ensures security for ACC, and allows FSU / Clemson to move to a conference with a ESPN contract

ACC will backfill & trickle down could affect MT.

But the BIGGER issue for MTSU is creating that winning culture that attracts fans, gains attention of media, and makes MT a desirable brand. BuildBlueNow Phase 2 will need to see some level of progress within the next 12-18 months (which is likely) as well.

Thing is if they settle (and I agree they will), it opens the door for others. Supposedly the B1G wants UVA and UNC. Will they try to negotiate a way out?

Anyone else in the ACC has very few options unless the B12 comes calling. And they don't want everyone.

I still thing the Super League is the end game, for football only. It will be run independent with students being employees of the school, or, the league "licensing" the schools' names to svoid anti-trust. And all other sports will be conference affiliated.

They will wind up being employees or at the least a union so they can collectively bargain. There are too many lawsuits now (currently in the billions) and that really is the only ways out of it all.

 

[AustinLewis]

Thing is if they settle (and I agree they will), it opens the door for others. Supposedly the B1G wants UVA and UNC. Will they try to negotiate a way out?

Anyone else in the ACC has very few options unless the B12 comes calling. And they don't want everyone.

I still thing the Super League is the end game, for football only. It will be run independent with students being employees of the school, or, the league "licensing" the schools' names to svoid anti-trust. And all other sports will be conference affiliated.

They will wind up being employees or at the least a union so they can collectively bargain. There are too many lawsuits now (currently in the billions) and that really is the only ways out of it all.

I think the ACC will eventually die & you'll see the remaining schools migrate to BIG12, BIG10, or SEC.

The next few years are going to be interesting as the high P5 sell themselves for TV$$$ & the high G5 / low P5 fight for spots in BIG12.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

College Football ‘Super League’ Pitch Deck Details Breakaway Plan

A document distributed in February by College Sports Tomorrow laid out a proposed "NIL Salary Cap" and a breakdown of its seven geographic divisions.

www.sportico.com