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mtfblue said:
usually taking over crap programs.
Let's see the successful ones that have moved up as well. Most aren't given adequate funding and most aren't given a chance to be successful. Most black coaches have to be better than there white counterparts.
Strong
Babers
Sumlin
Taggart
Mack
McNeil
Norvell
Hazell

You brought up the failure rate of black coaches what is it for 1st or FCS white coaches?
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Just want to point on out some key distinctions.

1. Strong: already mentioned his success as one of the few.

2. Babers - Didn't go back that far. Only wen to about 2017. That said, Babers had both OC experience at multiple P5 programs and head coach at FCS. Very experienced when he got the BGSU job. And a great hire by them. Unfortunately, they couldn't keep him long. If I had gone back that far, he defintiely would be in the success category.

3. Sumlin- Like Babers didn't go back that far.

4. Taggart is one of the failures I mentioned. Losing record at every stop including Western, FAU, USF, and FSU. His only stop above .500 was the one season at Oregon (7-5). Overall, 71-80 and had one good season in 13 years as a head coach.

5. Mack doesn't have enough history to evaluate with respect to these others.

6. McNeil: didn't go back that far. If I went back and included the years McNeil was at ECU the number of failed coaches would likely increase significantly.

7. Norvell I included in the list of failed (for now), because I used a very low bar for success. A .500 or above record and/or a conference championship. In this regard, Norvell has not been a success. But his book isn't complete yet. He could still be successful. He was just barely above .500 at Nevada but still has a chance with CSU.

8. Hazzell - didn't go back that far but see McNeil comment. He was only at Kent St for two years, so even if I did go back that far he would be a difficult one to assess. One losing season and one winning. Terrible at Purdue. Not sure what he represents.
 
I was unable to find statistics on the overall win rate of any new HC, but this USA Today article looks at the "success rate" of new P5 hires from 18-21

"There were 43 different hires made on the Power Five level from 2018-21, including seven programs that made multiple hires during this cycle: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida State, Kansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee.

Nineteen of these 43 hires (44.2%) can be classified as "hits," by virtue of matching or exceeding the admittedly subjective standard for success heading into their tenures."

I would imagine that number for unproven HC would be MUCH lower than that.

www.usatoday.com

What makes successful college football coaching hire? A look at Power Five hires finds key traits

Can you predict college football coaching success? A look at Power Five hires from 2018-21 found four key traits that predict positive results.
www.usatoday.com
 
we already know Blake Baker interviewed he is white, who is to say other coaches didn't get interviewed. It shouldn't matter that maybe the 2 leading candidates are possibly black. You have only 7 black coaches for 65 to 70 schools in G5. Maybe just maybe if they're going to hire a black coach, he gets a fair shake and get the resources available to him to be successful. damn shame race was even brought up anyway. When we all know white coaches get the benefit of doubt and multiple chances to be HC at schools unlike black coaches normally get crap jobs and try to make the. better and once fired rarely get a 2nd chance
 
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mtfblue said:
we already know Blake Baker interviewed he is white, who is to say other coaches didn't get interviewed. It shouldn't matter that maybe the 2 leading candidates are possibly black. You have only 7 black coaches for 65 to 70 schools in G5. Maybe just maybe if they're going to hire a black coach, he gets a fair shake and get the resources available to him to be successful. damn shame race was even brought up anyway. When we all know white coaches get the benefit of doubt and multiple chances to be HC at schools unlike black coaches normally get crap jobs and try to make the. better and once fired rarely get a 2nd chance
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I don't really understand your point. Is MT a crap job? What constitutes a crap job? Are you suggesting that if a black coach gets hired here he might not get a fair shake but a white coach would? I really don't understand you're suggesting other than finding a unique way to say I'm racist for bringing it up. Which is exactly what you're doing.

The point I'm raising is that the failure rate of black coaches is extremely, extremely high at G5 schools. Facts are facts whether you like them or not or whether you're uncomfortable with them or not. I'm not saying either of these guys would fail. I'm just saying the odds aren't good based on what we've seen from a data perspective. Moreover, I told you that two black coaches were tied for my top 3.

I agree with you that black coaches get less opportunities. In fact I stated that as an "unfortunate" reality. I also agree they don't get second chances. But I don't know what you mean about crap jobs. Perhaps you were referring to the fact black coaches don't get blue blood P5 offers? I'm not even addressing that. I'm just addressing the hiring at non-power schools which is a completely different dynamic. Being hired at Akron or FAU is no more crappy than being hired at Kent St or La Tech. And success against peers is limited for black coaches in these situations - for whatever reason.
 
MT01 said:
I don't really understand your point. Is MT a crap job? What constitutes a crap job? Are you suggesting that if a black coach gets hired here he might not get a fair shake but a white coach would? I really don't understand you're suggesting other than finding a unique way to say I'm racist for bringing it up. Which is exactly what you're doing.

The point I'm raising is that the failure rate of black coaches is extremely, extremely high at G5 schools. Facts are facts whether you like them or not or whether you're uncomfortable with them or not. I'm not saying either of these guys would fail. I'm just saying the odds aren't good based on what we've seen from a data perspective. Moreover, I told you that two black coaches were tied for my top 3.

I agree with you that black coaches get less opportunities. In fact I stated that as an "unfortunate" reality. I also agree they don't get second chances. But I don't know what you mean about crap jobs. Perhaps you were referring to the fact black coaches don't get blue blood P5 offers? I'm not even addressing that. I'm just addressing the hiring at non-power schools which is a completely different dynamic. Being hired at Akron or FAU is no more crappy than being hired at Kent St or La Tech. And success against peers is limited for black coaches in these situations - f
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Man you brought up race and now back tracking. As you know just like the NFL most black coaches get crap jobs with very little administrative support. If MT wasn't building the facilities this would be a crap job. We will see once everything is on place in 2025 how well the new coach does. There oit of a 137 jobs only 15 are coached by black men. So race never should've been brought into this, but you couldn't help yourself of the hundreds of post no one brought up race just good coaching candidates.

MT01 said:
or
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I think black coaches may seem to have a higher fail rate because they get fewer opportunities. A smaller sample size will lead to a perceived higher “fail” rate. If 10 black coaches get hired and 4 are “successful” we say only 4 black coaches have been successful. If there are 60 white coaches and 40% are successful we have 24 successful coaches. Fewer successful black coaches brings attention to the issue. It is an interesting topic to discuss and I don’t think anyone is racist for bringing it up. There are many factors that go into this. I for one couldn’t care less who it is as long as they win and I think everyone agrees with that.
 
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Also, for me I have enjoyed the enthusiasm & positive reinforcement this page has generated thus far. I see its already had over 5,000 views. That shows the true interest that MT supporters have in wanting a great hire for the football team.
I truly don't think there's any bigotry or hate amongst us here. Merely a misunderstanding amongst fans excited for hopefully what will be a great improvement in all things for Blue Raiders fans no matter the creed, color, or ethnicity.
Bottom line I hope we can all be friends again without any animosity.
By the way, I hope this doesn't come across as preachy. Lord knows I use too much fowl language on a regular basis to be one. Hahaha
 
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After 18 years of Stuck, all these guys are exciting to me. Really, I see no downside. Worst case scenario, weat least get to see something different.

Regarding Banks at UTk - they have been a solid defensive unit more often than not. But when they bust, it’s usually like one of those terrible defensive plays where you’re like “what are they doing”!!!

Also also, if the report about Banks is coming from a character named Basilio, you can pretty much dismiss it.
 
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mtfblue said:
Man you brought up race and now back tracking. As you know just like the NFL most black coaches get crap jobs with very little administrative support. If MT wasn't building the facilities this would be a crap job. We will see once everything is on place in 2025 how well the new coach does. There oit of a 137 jobs only 15 are coached by black men. So race never should've been brought into this, but you couldn't help yourself of the hundreds of post no one brought up race just good coaching candidates.
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How am I backtracking? Facts are facts.

And I didn’t bring race into it. McPhee did. I’ve been told his direction is to hire a black coach. I then pointed out high failure rates for G5 schools and some potential reasons why that is and why I believe there are better candidates who might have the skill set and experience to overcome the reasons behind why the failure rate is high in these circumstances. I don’t care if the coach is green, black, or orange but I want to hire someone who has the experience that will allow them to succeed here. This is not an easy job. Given the direction from the president I believe that name should be Simmons (or Atkins). But I will support whoever it is.
 
I'm going to throw out a name i haven't seen yet. AJ Milwee Co-OC/QB coach at Texas.

Tuesday, Aug, 10, 2021. (Stephen Spillman)

AJ MILWEE
​

  • TITLE Co-Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks

A former analyst at Alabama and offensive coordinator at Akron, AJ Milwee was named quarterbacks coach at Texas on January 22, 2021 and named Co-Offensive Coordinator ahead of the 2023 season.
Milwee helped guide quarterback Quinn Ewers to one of the finest freshman seasons in program history in 2022. Ewers earned honorable mention Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Honors passing for 2,177 yards and 15 touchdowns on 172-of-296 passing. In 10 starts, he won six games, tied for third-most by a UT freshman. His 2,177 passing yards were the third most for a Longhorn freshman, while his 15 touchdown passes were the fifth most. Against Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown, he connected for four passing scores, tied for 10th-most in program history and third among freshmen. In the Alamo Bowl versus Washington, he threw for 369 yards, the third-most for a Texas QB in a bowl game and the third-highest total for a freshman in any game in program history. Ewers concluded the season having thrown 116 consecutive passes without an interception, the eighth-longest streak for a Texas quarterback.
In 2021, Milwee helped mold Texas quarterbacks into one of the top units in the nation. Casey Thompson led the Big 12 Conference and placed 30th in the nation in passing touchdowns (24), while ranking fourth in the conference and 26th nationally in passing efficiency (154.7). Thompson passed for 410 yards against Kansas and 388 versus Oklahoma, the seventh- and 15th-best marks in program history, while also passing for six TDs against Kansas and five each against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, tied for the first- and third-best marks in UT history. The combination of Thompson and Hudson Card completed 62.7 percent of their passes, the ninth-best mark in program history, and total 29 passing touchdowns, tied for the fifth-most in a season for the Longhorns.
Milwee arrived in Texas after spending two seasons on the same coaching staff with Steve Sarkisian at Alabama, where he has served as an analyst for the Crimson Tide in 2019 and 2020. Milwee was part of a staff that guided Alabama to a 13-0 record and the 2020 National Championship. The 2019 squad capped off the year with a 35-16 win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl to finish ranked No. 8 in the final AP Top 25 poll.

Prior to Alabama, Milwee spent seven seasons at Akron, including his last six as the Zips’ offensive coordinator. He joined the Akron staff as a quarterbacks coach in 2012, and at the time he was elevated to oversee the program’s offense in 2013 was the second-youngest coordinator in FBS at age 27.

The 2017 Akron squad (7-7 overall, 6-2 MAC) soared to first place in the MAC East with huge victories over Ohio and Kent State to claim the division title and a spot in the MAC Championship game for the second time in program history and first time since 2005. Akron also advanced to an FBS bowl for the second time in three years, another program first. The Zips won their third consecutive Wagon Wheel (and fourth in last five years) over rival Kent State.
The same year, Akron posted 24 passing touchdowns that ranked as the third most in school history. Redshirt senior wide receiver Tra’Von Chapman earned third-team All-MAC honors. Senior running back Warren Ball, senior offensive lineman Xavier Quigley, and senior wide receiver Anthony Young earned Academic All-MAC honors, while Ball was named to the College Sports Information Directors of America (CoSIDA) Academic All-District 5 football team.
Milwee mentored four quarterbacks throughout the season. Senior and three-year starter Thomas Woodson started the first nine games. He finished his collegiate career at No. 2 with 6,864 passing yards and No. 2 in career passing TDs (53). Redshirt freshman Kato Nelson took over the starting role, leading the Zips to wins over Ohio and Kent State as well as appearances in the MAC Championship game and the Boca Raton Bowl. Also seeing action were junior Robbie Kelley and sophomore Nick Johns, who also appeared on special teams.
 
Question hypothetically speaking. If Manny took the job at James Madison instead of coming here, what do you think that would say about the state of and also the future of the program?
 
I like Jerry Mack now for the job because he has won as a HC with little to no resources, he's recruited on every level and he has strong TN ties and will recruit this state along with others. He took a bad rushing group at UT and turned them into being ranked 13th in the nation. We all know how rough it's been up in Knoxville so for anyone to achieve that, it's a sign of how good they really are. I could say the same about Banks to be honest but Mack has a lot more upside and he knows offense. He will get good assistants and probably an awesome OL coach. Plain and simple, he may not be the best coach out there but for MT at this time, he may be the best coach for us and our needs right now.
 
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MT01 said:
Question hypothetically speaking. If Manny took the job at James Madison instead of coming here, what do you think that would say about the state of and also the future of the program?
Click to expand...
Right now, we suck. In 1-2 years from now, our new student performance center will be one of the nicest in CUSA and even the SBC. It's a different ball game. Right now, we have below par facilities. Solve that and it's a different story.

Manny is also a ACCish east coast guy. JMU may be a better fit for him if he took it. Last time I checked, didn't Manny lose to LaTech and FIU while at Miami? In that same year, we beat the hell out of FIU 50-17. La Tech goose egged them in a bowl game. Manny is a better DC than HC.I know people here like him, but he was no Bear Bryant. Also, he had 1 really good year here and that was 2009. We still lost to Troy 26-7. I think we are better with an offense guy.
 
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MT01 said:
How am I backtracking? Facts are facts.

And I didn’t bring race into it. McPhee did. I’ve been told his direction is to hire a black coach. I then pointed out high failure rates for G5 schools and some potential reasons why that is and why I believe there are better candidates who might have the skill set and experience to overcome the reasons behind why the failure rate is high in these circumstances. I don’t care if the coach is green, black, or orange but I want to hire someone who has the experience that will allow them to succeed here. This is not an easy job. Given the direction from the president I believe that name should be Simmons (or Atkins). But I will support whoever it is.
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I'm going to let you have it big dog. Your never wrong.
 
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blueraiderJT said:
Right now, we suck. In 1-2 years from now, our new student performance center will be one of the nicest in CUSA and even the SBC. It's a different ball game. Right now, we have below par facilities. Solve that and it's a different story.

Manny is also a ACCish east coast guy. JMU may be a better fit for him if he took it. Last time I checked, didn'y Manny lose to LaTech and FIU while at Miami? La Tech goose egged them in a bowl game. Manny is a better DC than HC.
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This is a good article ranking the currently open HC positions. I tend to agree with them.

theathletic.com

We rank the open CFB coaching jobs, plus: Manny Diaz hired by Duke

The Athletic updates you on all the wild spinning of college football's coaching carousel, now in full swing.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 
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If a coach is successful at a crap program, they can move to a better program. Consider vanderbilt's years of futility in football (it warms my heart). James Franklin has been the only guy to come in and kick-ass. Now he has the job he always wanted.
 
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MTLynn said:
One thing is certain: if Elarbee is hired, the offensive line will be outstanding.
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That's who I would pick. Elarbee. Them were good times for MT football. I remember 'em. Good times. And if he accepts the job, I hope he will bring in as many former Blue Raiders as possible to be his assistants. O-line is where the success of a team is. Far and away.

Walden a distant second. What AP did with their helmets this year is great. 615 on one side, tristar on the other. Walden probably didn't come up with that branding idea, but I bet he had to approve it before it was implemented. Clarksville is a cool town.
 
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MT01 said:
Question hypothetically speaking. If Manny took the job at James Madison instead of coming here, what do you think that would say about the state of and also the future of the program?
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Nothing. JMU is a better job than MT.
 
magaraider said:
615 on one side, tristar on the other. Walden probably didn't come up with that branding idea, but I bet he had to approve it before it was implemented. Clarksville is a cool town.
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If I could, I would lean HEAVILY into 615 & tristar as MUCH as possible.

Put it on hats. Put it on polos. Make 615=MT.

Then again, I tell people I'm 615 til I die so maybe I'm a little biased there.
 
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AustinLewis said:
If I could, I would lean HEAVILY into 615 & tristar as MUCH as possible.

Put it on hats. Put it on polos. Make 615=MT.

Then again, I tell people I'm 615 til I die so maybe I'm a little biased there.
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Sounds like you're a 615 native. I miss the 615 I was born and raised in and I hope to escape soon. Winchester, TN sounds good. Or Hoenwald. Anywhere but Metro Nash and surrounding. The only traffic I care to navigate are farm tractors and Amish buggies.
 
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magaraider said:
Sounds like you're a 615 native. I miss the 615 I was born and raised in and I hope to escape soon. Winchester, TN sounds good. Or Hoenwald. Anywhere but Metro Nash and surrounding. The only traffic I care to navigate are farm tractors and Amish buggies.
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100% a 615 native.

It's where I was born. Where I was raised. And I've already told my family : when I die, bury me in TN.
 
AustinLewis said:
If I could, I would lean HEAVILY into 615 & tristar as MUCH as possible.

Put it on hats. Put it on polos. Make 615=MT.

Then again, I tell people I'm 615 til I die so maybe I'm a little biased there.
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I would too. It's why I used the tri-star and state outline in my basketball court designs. ....that whole "contest" still pisses me off. I will always say they got the gray idea from me. 😂
 
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MTTim said:
All I can say is Manny knows the leadership, or lack of, here.
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Correct. The people in control of MT right now hold a mindset that does not believe in meritocracy. Especially McPhee. If you are able to talk with him long enough you will be able to tell he is definitely an establishment guy.
 
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Brew_Raider said:
Did they ever reach out and try to make it right?
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Nope. They announced it, posted entries on their socials, then silence. Then next thing you know there's an article on GBR on Murphy upgrades and a random comment from CM that they were taking elements from all the designs. Nothing to the entrants about it being cancelled. Was handled poorly in my book.
 
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SpaceRaider said:
After 18 years of bad and lazy coaching Middle Tennessee is reduced to 'potential in a growing area" - I absolutely despise our leadership or lack there of.
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it's like a group of entitlement-minded squatters moved into a nice home and trashed it and now we can't get 'em out because of some new equity law
 
blueraiderJT said:
I like Jerry Mack now for the job because he has won as a HC with little to no resources, he's recruited on every level and he has strong TN ties and will recruit this state along with others. He took a bad rushing group at UT and turned them into being ranked 13th in the nation. We all know how rough it's been up in Knoxville so for anyone to achieve that, it's a sign of how good they really are. I could say the same about Banks to be honest but Mack has a lot more upside and he knows offense. He will get good assistants and probably an awesome OL coach. Plain and simple, he may not be the best coach out there but for MT at this time, he may be the best coach for us and our needs right now.
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I'm good with that choice, I'm not sure that any of the other candidates are all that better and I'm thinking having been in the state, he's more familiar to local high school coaches than our previous staff who couldn't bother to develop and maintain relationships with area and midstate coaches.

The MEAC HC experience is plus, not a huge plus, but against candidates who have none, a plus none the less. I don't see a sure thing among any of them.

All the candidates are a roll of the dice. Whoever is named, I'm good with it. Let's get him on board. The sooner the better.
 
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