Fire up the rumor mill: Missouri St to CUSA???

[Noogaraider1]

For all tracking this ever changing situation....it appears the below is about to happen.

Oregon and Washington to BIG, AZ and AZ state to Big 12

If the rest of the PAC12 can stay together then my guess is they raid the MW with Boise and SD State. From there what the PAC or MW does could really affect us. Raid the AAC and maybe we get the call.

 

[ewglenn]

PAC is in a tough spot

Big Ten adding Oregon and Washington, leaving Pac-12 with uncertain future

After a roller coaster of exploration and negotiation across the week, the Ducks and Huskies will exit the Pac 12, leaving the 108-year-old league with no certain future.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[MidTennMtneer]

We will know more once the B12 is settled. If I were Yormark I'd take UA and that's it till the ACC implodes. If UA is all the B12 takes, then things will get crazy on the G5 front.

Feel bad for OSU and Wazzu. Don't feel bad for UU at all. Stanford has enough $ it doesn't matter. Cal, ehh. Wazzu can't survive on the MWC $4m a year. They are in major debt from upgrades.

I mean the PAC could absorb the MWC or merge as they still have autonomy. Take some MWC and some AAC. Will AAC go after CUSA & SBC schools? Remaining MWC merge with CUSA? Still too many variables.

 

[mtfblue]

We will know more once the B12 is settled. If I were Yormark I'd take UA and that's it till the ACC implodes. If UA is all the B12 takes, then things will get crazy on the G5 front.

Feel bad for OSU and Wazzu. Don't feel bad for UU at all. Stanford has enough $ it doesn't matter. Cal, ehh. Wazzu can't survive on the MWC $4m a year. They are in major debt from upgrades.

I mean the PAC could absorb the MWC or merge as they still have autonomy. Take some MWC and some AAC. Will AAC go after CUSA & SBC schools? Remaining MWC merge with CUSA? Still too many variables.

i would see the last part happening, the remaining merge with CUSA and set up a true east west league, or the MWC pulls up Mont, Mont St, NDSU, SDSU. It all depends on who gets in the PAC. That will determine what really happens. Can the MWC schools really afford the 28 million buyout?

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

The Apple deal will surely decrease once departures are announced.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

i would see the last part happening, the remaining merge with CUSA and set up a true east west league, or the MWC pulls up Mont, Mont St, NDSU, SDSU. It all depends on who gets in the PAC. That will determine what really happens. Can the MWC schools really afford the 28 million buyout?

It's actually 34 but will be negotiated down.

The Apple deal will surely decrease once departures are announced.

Oh for sure. But even $8-10 with incentives is better than the $4m MWC or $7m AAC. Not to mention a better path to the CFP.

 

[ewglenn]

I think the PAC gets down to Cal, OSU, WSU and Stanford. I could see Stanford leaving for independence. From there I think the PAC adds to get their conference back to solid footing.

Oregon St
Washington St
California
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU
Colorado St
Air Force
UNLV
Nevada

I would also add SMU and Tulane to add some academic prestige back while also giving some CST teams. Inventory is something they will need and a couple of CST teams will allow them more opportunities for earlier games.

 

[Noogaraider1]

I think the PAC gets down to Cal, OSU, WSU and Stanford. I could see Stanford leaving for independence. From there I think the PAC adds to get their conference back to solid footing.

Oregon St
Washington St
California
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU
Colorado St
Air Force
UNLV
Nevada

I would also add SMU and Tulane to add some academic prestige back while also giving some CST teams. Inventory is something they will need and a couple of CST teams will allow them more opportunities for earlier games.

Would this dissolve the MWC $34M GOR? The new PAC12 media deal is gonna be terrible. $34M is a lot to overcome.

 

[sWiley]

Would this dissolve the MWC $34M GOR? The new PAC12 media deal is gonna be terrible. $34M is a lot to overcome.

it would not.

MWC schools are stuck. Pac12 won't have enough $$$ to get them to come over. Only way is if MWC/Pac12 merge or some kind of deal is worked out but no way MWC let's them off the hook. MWC has a lot of power in this situation and holds all the cards for both the survival of the Pac12 and the resulting G5 dominoes that will fall.

Wouldn't surprise me to see an AAC or SBC get worried and pre-emptively add a pair of schools. AAC would obviously be much more likely to pull a move like that, but it's pretty clear everyone see's the writing on the wall at this point. 16 to 24 team mega conferences. CUSA doesn't even get a mention here because there are no real viable candidates to go after at this time unless you want to seal your fate as a glorified FCS conference.

If I was one of these G5 league commissioner's I would be aggressively formulating the best 20-24 team league possible. Get the best 20-24 teams you can who have shown they are serious about D1 athletics, split them into divisions, lock them all up in a great GOR/TV media deal, and get to work. It doesn't have to be more complex or more difficult than that.

 

[SpaceRaider]

PAC is in a tough spot

Big Ten adding Oregon and Washington, leaving Pac-12 with uncertain future

After a roller coaster of exploration and negotiation across the week, the Ducks and Huskies will exit the Pac 12, leaving the 108-year-old league with no certain future.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[sWiley]

And it's official.....

Arizona, ASU, and Utah to join Big 12

Washington and Oregon to Big Ten

Pac12 looking very dead.

 

[MT01]

Although the four remaining have options none of them are great.

1. Probably first they will seek to join the ACC to remain in power conference status. I could have seen the ACC being game for adding all of them when it included Oreg and Ariz, but the four that are left seem to just bring nothing much for them but a logistical headache and I don't see how they can give them much of anything in TV revenue. ESPN didn't want PAC content when it included OU, UW, and Ariz, so don't see these four offering much value at all to the ACC's deal.

2. Join the MWC. Basically finalize the compete disbandment of the PAC conference brand and be absorbed into the non-power conference.

3. Try to salvage the league by adding mostly MWC teams. The problem with trying to scoop MWC teams is a) timing and b) exit penalties. The defections of the PAC 12 begin in '24. It's too late for MWC teams to give notice and they already have an absurdly hefty exit fee - much less what it would cost for an early exit. For this option, the PAC 4 would have to get an exemption from the NCAA to operate next year.

4. The four may not all do the same thing. Independence may be the only hope. And I imagine that Oreg St and Wash St have pretty much none right now.

 

[MT01]

For MT, it's important that next steps happen gradually and not like what happened in the PAC. Ideally, PAC plucks from MWC and AAC leaving some gaps in either the AAC or the Sun Belt but not enough to force those two into a merger.

Worst case is PAC takes a specific amount from MWC and AAC (whatever that number is) that forces them to merge leaving no further dominoes for Sun Belt and C-USA.

 

[BRaiderDave]

One thing is for certain. We are screwed no matter what happens.

 

[blueraiderJT]

The remaining P12 teams coukld be plcked by the MWC. That is a possibility.

 

[crposton]

Sommy I am in total agreement. For me it’s aac or bust.

By the time we get to the AAC it won’t be any different than where we are now or were last year. Same conference, different name.

 

[MT01]

At least we won't be in the one we're in now and have a bit more cash to show for it.

 

[Sommy]

Is PAC even trying at this point? It’s not like this came out of left field and they seem to just be sitting on their hands.

SMU, Tulane, Memphis and to a lesser extent, Tulsa could be somewhat attractive additions. SMU for sure. Why is PAC doing nothing? Again, anything that helps MT leave The embarrassment of CUSA, I’m for it.

 

[sWiley]

It would be ideal for MT if no major G5 changes happen for at least another 2 years. We are collecting nice sums of money from CUSA right now. Obviously, if SBC or AAC calls and we have to go, then we leave. But hopefully it would be a little further down the road so we can collect some more money and then leave. I would prefer SBC but AAC would be fine too.

Worst case scenario CUSA gets raided and MT is not one of the teams selected. We are then basically left in a glorified FCS league and our Division 1 football journey is officially a nightmare and over with. It is extremely important for our football team and basketball team to be champions or at least runner ups these next few years. And they better keep building and building fast and announce phase 2 and 3 as soon as possible.

If we do get left behind in CUSA after next shuffle and the SBC or AAC takes let’s say WKU and Liberty, we should just shut football down, go all in on basketball, and find the best basketball conference available. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that though.

 

[blueraiderJT]

Is PAC even trying at this point? It’s not like this came out of left field and they seem to just be sitting on their hands.

SMU, Tulane, Memphis and to a lesser extent, Tulsa could be somewhat attractive additions. SMU for sure. Why is PAC doing nothing? Again, anything that helps MT leave The embarrassment of CUSA, I’m for it.

With what? They have no media deal or money now. PAC12 is gone. The MWC had a friday night meeting to pt together a strike strategy. The commish has spoken with Washington st, and oregon st. Something will go down soon.

 

[blueraiderJT]

To be back in the SBC would be a dream. The AAC is just CUSA 5. I think we stay put for a while. The SBC has no reason to expand now.

 

[sWiley]

Is PAC even trying at this point? It’s not like this came out of left field and they seem to just be sitting on their hands.

SMU, Tulane, Memphis and to a lesser extent, Tulsa could be somewhat attractive additions. SMU for sure. Why is PAC doing nothing? Again, anything that helps MT leave The embarrassment of CUSA, I’m for it.

They didn’t have any foresight with TV contract expirations and had no insight on the value (or lack thereof) of their broadcast rights. The Big 12 commish deserves a major raise and maybe an award of some kind because he has masterfully timed and plotted all of these moves to take advantage of the pac12’s poor situation.

nobody wants to give the pac12 a big TV contract because nobody watches their games. Plus, all the other power leagues negotiated their contracts first, so ESPN and Fox have plenty of content and inventory for broadcasting.

So basically, nobody needs or really wants rights to air pac12 games. I’m surprised Apple even offered the $20 million per school plus escalators but that offer is long gone now since everyone left.

Big 12 is paying $30 million per school and Big Ten is paying even more than that. It was an easy financial decision for these schools to leave. As always, it is 100% about the money. Sheer greed and trying to keep up with the joneses. CFB has gone absolutely mad with money, NIL, transfer portal, etc. It’s not even a shell of itself anymore and should be classified as a professional sport now. Sickening to me personally, but nobody cares what you or I think. They just want that money, at all costs, and nothing is going to stop them.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

Let me ask this, does the name Pac whatever carry any weight with say a MWC or AAC school? I know it's a crazy question considering, but those of us remember the Pac10 in its glory days.

I think it's coming to a point where at least one G5 conference will cease to exist soon. We know the Pac whatever will pick who they want from MWC, then others will pick from the lower conferences. In the end, one conference has to give, just which one will it be.

We have to position ourselves now for the future. Maybe, just maybe, this big announcement Lee mentioned needs to come asap to show the world we are dedicated to upping our facilities to not be left out.

Unfortunately, this administration has alienated damn near everyone who ever cared about MT athletics. I don't give a damn about announced attendance, the buts in the seats on tv tells the whole picture.

Forgive my grammar, it's been an emotional day for me, with all I've been through, so I've had a few drinks.

 

[blueraiderJT]

Let me ask this, does the name Pac whatever carry any weight with say a MWC or AAC school? I know it's a crazy question considering, but those of us remember the Pac10 in its glory days.

I think it's coming to a point where at least one G5 conference will cease to exist soon. We know the Pac whatever will pick who they want from MWC, then others will pick from the lower conferences. In the end, one conference has to give, just which one will it be.

We have to position ourselves now for the future. Maybe, just maybe, this big announcement Lee mentioned needs to come asap to show the world we are dedicated to upping our facilities to not be left out.

Unfortunately, this administration has alienated damn near everyone who ever cared about MT athletics. I don't give a damn about announced attendance, the buts in the seats on tv tells the whole picture.

Forgive my grammar, it's been an emotional day for me, with all I've been through, so I've had a few drinks.

I'm yelling you, the MWC is the one who's plucking the Pac12. The PAC12 has no money and the MWC has a 34 mill per team buyout with better media coverage. Plus, the last PAC12 commmish leaked funds from Comcast and millions are owed. The MWC is in the driver's seat. The MWC commish had a smile on her face when she was asked about next moves. Things could go down as early as tomorrow.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

I'm yelling you, the MWC is the one who's plucking the Pac12. The PAC12 has no money and the MWC has a 34 mill per team buyout with better media coverage. Plus, the last PAC12 commmish leaked funds from Comcast and millions are owed. The MWC is in the driver's seat. The MWC commish had a smile on her face when she was asked about next moves. Things could go down as early as tomorrow.

This. The most likely scenario is that the MWC merges with the PAC essentially for the name and autonomy status, for the next two years anyway. Think Pacific Mountain Conference. Fire Kilavkoff. I fully see Stanford going Indy as they can afford it. So that would make 15 teams. Grab a few AAC to open up the central time zone then call up Apple and say hey, we have more inventory than CBS/FOX can handle. Let's work out a deal for say $6m plus incentives. You get your foot in the college door at low risk. That would give teams $10m. Make it more manageable for the leftover PAC teams and incentivize AAC teams to join.

I don't see the AAC adding unless they lose more than 2. But even if they call us, is it worth it? Sure it's more $ now. But their next media deal will not be anywhere near $7m. Although it still will probably be more than the $600k we get now.

 

[blueraiderJT]

This. The most likely scenario is that the MWC merges with the PAC essentially for the name and autonomy status, for the next two years anyway. Think Pacific Mountain Conference. Fire Kilavkoff. I fully see Stanford going Indy as they can afford it. So that would make 15 teams. Grab a few AAC to open up the central time zone then call up Apple and say hey, we have more inventory than CBS/FOX can handle. Let's work out a deal for say $6m plus incentives. You get your foot in the college door at low risk. That would give teams $10m. Make it more manageable for the leftover PAC teams and incentivize AAC teams to join.

I don't see the AAC adding unless they lose more than 2. But even if they call us, is it worth it? Sure it's more $ now. But their next media deal will not be anywhere near $7m. Although it still will probably be more than the $600k we get now.

Great points. Another scenario I just thought of. What's to stop other G5 teams fromm calling the Pac12 right now that don't have 34 mill buyouts to go? If I was Massaro, would it hurt to call? Not at all. I wonder how many calls have come in? How desperate would they be to accept whoever right now.

However, I think the MWC is in the driver's seat. I wouldn't merge when I'm in position to buy. Naverez isn't gonna give up her seat so it would be the other dude who would be leaving. She handled SDSU like a boss and made them tuck their tail between their legs when they pulled their crap. I like her.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

Great points. Another scenario I just thought of. What's to stop other G5 teams fromm calling the Pac12 right now that don't have 34 mill buyouts to go? If I was Massaro, would it hurt to call? Not at all. I wonder how many calls have come in? How desperate would they be to accept whoever right now.

However, I think the MWC is in the driver's seat. I wouldn't merge when I'm in position to buy. Naverez isn't gonna give up her seat so it would be the other dude who would be leaving. She handled SDSU like a boss and made them tuck their tail between their legs when they pulled their crap. I like her.

Can we swap Judy for her... Throw in some cash to boot?... wishful thinking

 

[AustinLewis]

A few rumblings this morning :

1) Pac 12 / MWC is on the table
2) AAC has discussed adding remaining 4 PAC12 with scheduling concessions
3) Stanford has reached out to Big 12...

It's interesting that the Big 12 looked DOA almost 10 years ago & it's rebounded quite well. Meanwhile the PAC12 looked like it was making some moves but seems to have lost its appeal in the last 5 years

 

[MidTennMtneer]

Supposedly the ACC has reached out as well offering unique scheduling and an opportunity for more $ for current schools.

EDIT...ignore that. That was before yesterday's defections it seems. I hate people re-tweeting something days old during all this.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

Looks like my prediction may come true, but slightly different.

Rumors are the remaining PAC (minus possible Stanford but maybe Stanford) are hatching a plan with the upper MWC schools to fully dissolve the MWC and then pulling the upper from AAC to complete. The rationale being it would elimate the MWC buyout, keep the PAC prestige, autonomy status, and PAC Network. Apple is still interested and wants its own conference.

So in this scenario Wyoming, Hawaii, and probably Air Force would be left out, with SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe even USF leaving the AAC.

Supposedly also looking at pulling AAC schools for '24 to get to 8 or so teams (buyout is around $15m) and waiting for the MWC schools to come in '25 (buyout $17m with that long a notice).

I had a feeling this would tumble to the G5s.

 

[Sommy]

Looks like my prediction may come true, but slightly different.

Rumors are the remaining PAC (minus possible Stanford but maybe Stanford) are hatching a plan with the upper MWC schools to fully dissolve the MWC and then pulling the upper from AAC to complete. The rationale being it would elimate the MWC buyout, keep the PAC prestige, autonomy status, and PAC Network. Apple is still interested and wants its own conference.

So in this scenario Wyoming, Hawaii, and probably Air Force would be left out, with SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe even USF leaving the AAC.

Supposedly also looking at pulling AAC schools for '24 to get to 8 or so teams (buyout is around $15m) and waiting for the MWC schools to come in '25 (buyout $17m with that long a notice).

I had a feeling this would tumble to the G5s.

Well if that works out, perhaps a small window will open for MT. If 4 slots open, Massaro better be begging and pleading to let us in.

 

[crposton]

All conferences other than the SEC, ACC, B1G, and Big 12 need to all agree to work together to regionalize their conferences. This is all gone way too far. None if these conferences/schools can afford to fly their non revenue sports across country for games all the time.

 

[FranklinRaider315]

Well if that works out, perhaps a small window will open for MT. If 4 slots open, Massaro better be begging and pleading to let us in.

If the SunBelt flipped him and McPhee the bird, why would the AAC even listen??? Seriously.

 

[mtfblue]

Looks like my prediction may come true, but slightly different.

Rumors are the remaining PAC (minus possible Stanford but maybe Stanford) are hatching a plan with the upper MWC schools to fully dissolve the MWC and then pulling the upper from AAC to complete. The rationale being it would elimate the MWC buyout, keep the PAC prestige, autonomy status, and PAC Network. Apple is still interested and wants its own conference.

So in this scenario Wyoming, Hawaii, and probably Air Force would be left out, with SMU, Tulane, Memphis, and maybe even USF leaving the AAC.

Supposedly also looking at pulling AAC schools for '24 to get to 8 or so teams (buyout is around $15m) and waiting for the MWC schools to come in '25 (buyout $17m with that long a notice).

I had a feeling this would tumble to the G5s.

air force with their academic status would be in is cal and Stanford have a say. they may go 3 time zones but not all 4. AAC will lose SMU, Tulane, Tulsa and maybe Rice. MWC loses NM, SDSU, Fresno, Air Force, UNLV and Colorado St... that's 10 new schools giving the PAC 14.

 

[blueraiderJT]

The PAC would need a REAL media deal to attract anyone at this point and they simply don't have it. They have lost the P5 status as well. They want to merge with the MWC buut if I'm the MWC commish, I would want complete control with a new garanteed media deal before I even considered. I would instead go to Oregon St. and Wash St, and really talk with them. If I could get them to join the MWC, then no merge deal. Keep it MWC all the way.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

Got close though...
https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/only-1-fbs-conference-has-not-added-teams-at-all-this-century

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/05/acc-presidents-meet-after-pac-12-fractures

 

[blueraiderJT]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/05/acc-presidents-meet-after-pac-12-fractures

So the ACC would have to take a cut per school plus fund the travel expenses for just 2-4 schools over 2,000 miles away. I don't see that happening. The MWC is in a powerful spot right now. I would let them struggle or go indy and then they would come begging in a couple months. The PAC has a little money right now to get some teams but the pickings are so slim.
For the ACC, Memphis, Uconn and App st. makes way more sense for them.

 

[RaidRRick]

So the ACC would have to take a cut per school plus fund the travel expenses for just 2-4 schools over 2,000 miles away. I don't see that happening. The MWC is in a powerful spot right now. I would let them struggle or go indy and then they would come begging in a couple months. The PAC has a little money right now to get some teams but the pickings are so slim.
For the ACC, Memphis, Uconn and App st. makes way more sense for them.

App State to the ACC??!! Come on man! I enjoy this board, but some of you guys, good lord!....

 

[mtfblue]

doesn't the PAC lose all it's autobids since they don't have 6 teams that have played in the same conference? I know the MWC didn't have autobids for some years when they formed. So why would the MWC schools go to the PAC? They hold all the cards. OSU and WSU should be applying. With the PAC devastated who gets the NCAA tourney credits that have been earned?