G5(6) Revenue Sharing

[RaiderDoug]

Yea, sorry, not interested.

The biggest appeal for college athletics, to me, was that the smaller schools like us theoretically had a chance. If we put together that perfect roster, developed those players and eventually had a stacked roster full of juniors and seniors that would start at many P5 schools, we could go win some big games and shock the world. This recipe is what allowed small schools like MT to rise up and play with the big dogs on occasion.

That's all long gone. And the proof is in the pudding. See any mid-major darlings going to the Sweet 16 this year ? Seen any huge G5 upsets in college football lately ? Nope. And the scary part is, we are only getting started with paying players. Millions and millions more is about to flow to the players at P5 programs and roster sizes are likely to increase as well. Do you have any idea what that means and entails for a school like MT? It isn't going to be pretty to say the least.

I understand it's pretty silly to think we stand a chance against the big dogs. Back when I was a student, even though it was unrealistic to think we would go on the road and beat a Georgia or a Florida, I traveled to those games and I believed. I went into The Swamp holding "Hurricane Marks hits Florida" after our damn game had to be rescheduled because of a hurricane. Clint Marks was our QB, hence the sign name. We were a 30 point underdog, but I still believed.

That belief is gone. That theoretical chance no longer exists because money and power will assure programs like us stay on the bottom with their foot on our necks. Any good young player we cultivate now belongs to the Power 5. The cards were already prohibitively stacked against us before NIL and free transfers. Now, it's over in my eyes.

And I'll never understand how sports are interesting to people when it's simply the biggest wallet wins. Like, what's even the point? That removes most if not all of the competitive spirit by quite literally removing competition from the sport.

Shitty shit happens and you just have to make the best of it.

If MT is playing WKU in anything, I'm going to watch and pull for MT. I don't care if the players are literally the 50 worst players to have ever buckled on a helmet. I don't care if every single player on our team is headed for a future of loading lumber at Lowe's. I'm still watching.

I do think sooner or later a framework will shake out and there will be some sort of division for schools like ours. The current trajectory is unsustainable for all but maybe 20 programs. Teams way higher up the totem pole by virtue of history/tradition/budget/fan base/success are going to find themselves just as screwed. Hell, take a gander on over to some Vols message boards and it's starting to sink in that even them, with all the resources they can muster - they're realizing that they're not the biggest swinging you-know-what when the name of the game is deepest pocket wins.

At the end of the day, you can support your alma mater at what ever level we compete at, or you can find something else to do with your entertainment dollars/interest. I'll choose the former.

 

[RaiderDoug]

Once you get collective bargaining in college sports, I'm hopeful that happens.

I'm not sure what would cause this to happen though.

I just don't see the incentive to unionize that the players would have. They have all the leverage right now. Unlimited spending cap, unlimited freedom of movement, unlimited pretty much everything. Any attempt to restrict that goes right to the courts, which would side with the players.

The programs have no carrot or stick to compel the traditional union/management relationship to form.

 

[asuhatesme]

I'm not sure what would cause this to happen though.

I just don't see the incentive to unionize that the players would have. They have all the leverage right now. Unlimited spending cap, unlimited freedom of movement, unlimited pretty much everything. Any attempt to restrict that goes right to the courts, which would side with the players.

The programs have no carrot or stick to compel the traditional union/management relationship to form.

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

if there’s one thing you should have learned by watching college athletics, it’s that first and foremost, the schools are going to get their money before everyone else does.

Now that the players are being paid through the university, there absolutely will be an employment structure.

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

In a funny way, it’s not as dire for schools like us because we’ve never made enough tv money for it count for much. Much like a lower middle class family over extending themselves on credit cards, some of those schools are a couple of seasons of half full stadiums away from crippling debt that might not be recoverable from. And all because they toed the SEC and Big 10 line for a system that benefits about 10 out of 135 schools.

 

[RaiderDoug]

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

if there’s one thing you should have learned by watching college athletics, it’s that first and foremost, the schools are going to get their money before everyone else does.

Now that the players are being paid through the university, there absolutely will be an employment structure.

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

In a funny way, it’s not as dire for schools like us because we’ve never made enough tv money for it count for much. Much like a lower middle class family over extending themselves on credit cards, some of those schools are a couple of seasons of half full stadiums away from crippling debt that might not be recoverable from. And all because they toed the SEC and Big 10 line for a system that benefits about 10 out of 135 schools.

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

Yes. Because that's not enough money to incentivize the players to tie themselves to any restrictive contract. The schools will not act as one as the pros do - if you refuse a contract in the pros, you have no place else to play. That's the leverage that the pros have. In order for that to happen here, the schools would need to be united as an entity (think like a college football commish) - i.e. you don't sign up, you can't play college football anywhere.

But you think Ohio State is going to stand in solidarity with Purdue in order to have any leverage over the players? Ain't happening. Ohio State will happily fork over 20 million as the cost of doing business.

And 20 million won't go as far we think it will, what with all the players in all sports needing cash, title IX, and all that will come with that. Most of the football players are still going to get their cash from outside NIL.

The lunch money that the house settlement will provide won't be incentive enough to get any of these players to sign binding and restrictive contracts.

Think about it this way - if you're an agent, and your presented with a contract where you can get 25k or so through the university House settlement, but your client has to sign a contract that restricts you to the school and your earning potential.

Or you can say "no thanks", and keep your free agency shopping every year for 10x that amount, and allow you to change schools whenever you want?

This would, in theory, work for smaller schools like ours and players at our level that usually don't have too many high end options (if you don't sign here you'll end up at Tennessee Tech), but if we don't have the full 20 million pool (which we won't), how much is that really worth to an individual player?

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

I don't think that will happen. This house settlement doesn't affect 3rd party contracts. If you're buying players through an NIL collective now, your school will continue to do so on top of the house money.

Now could some schools/fan bases theoretically run out of money for both 3rd party NIL and the 20 million through the school - 100% surely they will. If you're someone that doesn't have mega pockets like a Mississippi State or huge fan base like a Wake Forest - you're only slightly less F***** than we are in the long run.

But if you're banking on someone like Ohio State or Texas or Georgia running out of money for both....I don't think that's going to happen.


TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

Not for the top 20 or so programs. Eventually, some beancounters will come up with a proposal that makes the presidents drool, and we'll see an NFL lite type of deal (Superleague?) where the top programs bind and sell off their TV inventory together. At that point, it'll all split up. When we get there - probably 2030-ish.

 

[ewglenn]

Just for clarification, Title IX currently does not apply to NIL. Revenue sharing will likely not be subjected to Title IX as it will be directly related to the revenue the individual sport is bringing in.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

Just for clarification, Title IX currently does not apply to NIL. Revenue sharing will likely not be subjected to Title IX as it will be directly related to the revenue the individual sport is bringing in.

Ok, the athletes, when paid by the university, are paid, their pay is based off the amount their respective sport brings in?