G5(6) Revenue Sharing

[RaiderDoug]

Yea, sorry, not interested.

The biggest appeal for college athletics, to me, was that the smaller schools like us theoretically had a chance. If we put together that perfect roster, developed those players and eventually had a stacked roster full of juniors and seniors that would start at many P5 schools, we could go win some big games and shock the world. This recipe is what allowed small schools like MT to rise up and play with the big dogs on occasion.

That's all long gone. And the proof is in the pudding. See any mid-major darlings going to the Sweet 16 this year ? Seen any huge G5 upsets in college football lately ? Nope. And the scary part is, we are only getting started with paying players. Millions and millions more is about to flow to the players at P5 programs and roster sizes are likely to increase as well. Do you have any idea what that means and entails for a school like MT? It isn't going to be pretty to say the least.

I understand it's pretty silly to think we stand a chance against the big dogs. Back when I was a student, even though it was unrealistic to think we would go on the road and beat a Georgia or a Florida, I traveled to those games and I believed. I went into The Swamp holding "Hurricane Marks hits Florida" after our damn game had to be rescheduled because of a hurricane. Clint Marks was our QB, hence the sign name. We were a 30 point underdog, but I still believed.

That belief is gone. That theoretical chance no longer exists because money and power will assure programs like us stay on the bottom with their foot on our necks. Any good young player we cultivate now belongs to the Power 5. The cards were already prohibitively stacked against us before NIL and free transfers. Now, it's over in my eyes.

And I'll never understand how sports are interesting to people when it's simply the biggest wallet wins. Like, what's even the point? That removes most if not all of the competitive spirit by quite literally removing competition from the sport.

Shitty shit happens and you just have to make the best of it.

If MT is playing WKU in anything, I'm going to watch and pull for MT. I don't care if the players are literally the 50 worst players to have ever buckled on a helmet. I don't care if every single player on our team is headed for a future of loading lumber at Lowe's. I'm still watching.

I do think sooner or later a framework will shake out and there will be some sort of division for schools like ours. The current trajectory is unsustainable for all but maybe 20 programs. Teams way higher up the totem pole by virtue of history/tradition/budget/fan base/success are going to find themselves just as screwed. Hell, take a gander on over to some Vols message boards and it's starting to sink in that even them, with all the resources they can muster - they're realizing that they're not the biggest swinging you-know-what when the name of the game is deepest pocket wins.

At the end of the day, you can support your alma mater at what ever level we compete at, or you can find something else to do with your entertainment dollars/interest. I'll choose the former.

 

[RaiderDoug]

Once you get collective bargaining in college sports, I'm hopeful that happens.

I'm not sure what would cause this to happen though.

I just don't see the incentive to unionize that the players would have. They have all the leverage right now. Unlimited spending cap, unlimited freedom of movement, unlimited pretty much everything. Any attempt to restrict that goes right to the courts, which would side with the players.

The programs have no carrot or stick to compel the traditional union/management relationship to form.

 

[asuhatesme]

I'm not sure what would cause this to happen though.

I just don't see the incentive to unionize that the players would have. They have all the leverage right now. Unlimited spending cap, unlimited freedom of movement, unlimited pretty much everything. Any attempt to restrict that goes right to the courts, which would side with the players.

The programs have no carrot or stick to compel the traditional union/management relationship to form.

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

if there’s one thing you should have learned by watching college athletics, it’s that first and foremost, the schools are going to get their money before everyone else does.

Now that the players are being paid through the university, there absolutely will be an employment structure.

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

In a funny way, it’s not as dire for schools like us because we’ve never made enough tv money for it count for much. Much like a lower middle class family over extending themselves on credit cards, some of those schools are a couple of seasons of half full stadiums away from crippling debt that might not be recoverable from. And all because they toed the SEC and Big 10 line for a system that benefits about 10 out of 135 schools.

 

[RaiderDoug]

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

if there’s one thing you should have learned by watching college athletics, it’s that first and foremost, the schools are going to get their money before everyone else does.

Now that the players are being paid through the university, there absolutely will be an employment structure.

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

In a funny way, it’s not as dire for schools like us because we’ve never made enough tv money for it count for much. Much like a lower middle class family over extending themselves on credit cards, some of those schools are a couple of seasons of half full stadiums away from crippling debt that might not be recoverable from. And all because they toed the SEC and Big 10 line for a system that benefits about 10 out of 135 schools.

You think the schools are just going to hand over $20M a year to the players?

Yes. Because that's not enough money to incentivize the players to tie themselves to any restrictive contract. The schools will not act as one as the pros do - if you refuse a contract in the pros, you have no place else to play. That's the leverage that the pros have. In order for that to happen here, the schools would need to be united as an entity (think like a college football commish) - i.e. you don't sign up, you can't play college football anywhere.

But you think Ohio State is going to stand in solidarity with Purdue in order to have any leverage over the players? Ain't happening. Ohio State will happily fork over 20 million as the cost of doing business.

And 20 million won't go as far we think it will, what with all the players in all sports needing cash, title IX, and all that will come with that. Most of the football players are still going to get their cash from outside NIL.

The lunch money that the house settlement will provide won't be incentive enough to get any of these players to sign binding and restrictive contracts.

Think about it this way - if you're an agent, and your presented with a contract where you can get 25k or so through the university House settlement, but your client has to sign a contract that restricts you to the school and your earning potential.

Or you can say "no thanks", and keep your free agency shopping every year for 10x that amount, and allow you to change schools whenever you want?

This would, in theory, work for smaller schools like ours and players at our level that usually don't have too many high end options (if you don't sign here you'll end up at Tennessee Tech), but if we don't have the full 20 million pool (which we won't), how much is that really worth to an individual player?

Collectives will die off or be absorbed by the schools. No need for them. Average donors aren’t going to pay even more (their tickets and donations have already been raised to obscene levels) for players that are already being paid through the university.

I don't think that will happen. This house settlement doesn't affect 3rd party contracts. If you're buying players through an NIL collective now, your school will continue to do so on top of the house money.

Now could some schools/fan bases theoretically run out of money for both 3rd party NIL and the 20 million through the school - 100% surely they will. If you're someone that doesn't have mega pockets like a Mississippi State or huge fan base like a Wake Forest - you're only slightly less F***** than we are in the long run.

But if you're banking on someone like Ohio State or Texas or Georgia running out of money for both....I don't think that's going to happen.


TV money will dry up in the future. It will be Armageddon for some schools, mainly the lower tier power schools that get 50 percent or more of their budget from that money.

Not for the top 20 or so programs. Eventually, some beancounters will come up with a proposal that makes the presidents drool, and we'll see an NFL lite type of deal (Superleague?) where the top programs bind and sell off their TV inventory together. At that point, it'll all split up. When we get there - probably 2030-ish.

 

[ewglenn]

Just for clarification, Title IX currently does not apply to NIL. Revenue sharing will likely not be subjected to Title IX as it will be directly related to the revenue the individual sport is bringing in.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

Just for clarification, Title IX currently does not apply to NIL. Revenue sharing will likely not be subjected to Title IX as it will be directly related to the revenue the individual sport is bringing in.

Ok, the athletes, when paid by the university, are paid, their pay is based off the amount their respective sport brings in?

 

[MidTennMtneer]

Ok, the athletes, when paid by the university, are paid, their pay is based off the amount their respective sport brings in?

Correct. It is up to the schools how they distribute the money.

But I've yet to see a school announce it a different way. Football the most, MBB next, WBB, then rest. Slight differences after that as some schools are splitting rest evenly, some baseball schools are giving a bit more to those players, etc.

Here is an example that Texas Tech announced

 

[RaiderDoug]

Just for clarification, Title IX currently does not apply to NIL. Revenue sharing will likely not be subjected to Title IX as it will be directly related to the revenue the individual sport is bringing in.

Not now because current NIL deals are private business contracts.

House settlement funds are from the university, and it will be subject to Title IX. It'll have to be unless Federal law goes away. They don't have to pay it equally, but it'll have to be there and it'll chip away from that 20 mil and other funds.

That 20-million, when it gets down to the individual player, will not be enough to get players to waive what's essentially far more money and free agency through the current system.

The kid who went to Michigan over LSU got like 10 million. He ain't signing anything for what they'll offer him from the House money.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

Not now because current NIL deals are private business contracts.

House settlement funds are from the university, and it will be subject to Title IX. It'll have to be unless Federal law goes away. They don't have to pay it equally, but it'll have to be there and it'll chip away from that 20 mil and other funds.

That 20-million, when it gets down to the individual player, will not be enough to get players to waive what's essentially far more money and free agency through the current system.

The kid who went to Michigan over LSU got like 10 million. He ain't signing anything for what they'll offer him from the House money.

That changed with the current admin. Now, doesn't mean it will stay as it is another interpretation of Title IX and will 10000% wind up in the courts. But as of the current admin's guidance right now, revenue sharing payments are not subject to Title IX.



This is where collectives change things. Even if revenue sharing becomes part of Title IX, the schools will work around it. Remember new donors who don't have a record with the school can donate to a collective for a NIL deal and not be subjected to the clearing house approval. So if I donate $20k to Raiders Rising for a certain player, the deal will have to be approved as it is over $600 and I'm in record with BRAA. But if my Dad donates, zero scrutiny whatsoever.
So for example while Ohio State may pay a FB QB $275k from revenue, their THE Foundation collective can get him another $2m from an unaffiliated donor and boom. They've got the kid.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

It sounds to me like it will take all the schools to say we are only paying this much and that is it. We all know that will never happen, especially at the larger schools.

I could totally see the pitch for players to come to a G5 will be along the lines of come here and we will pay what we can and develop you so that you can get those big money deals. Look how many of our former players earned big money NIL deals at P4 schools.

 

[JohnDavidBlue]

I don't like to waste my time. If I want to watch inconsequential games, my wife and I will bring a lawn chair and go watch the local little league baseball or football teams. I could also fill up on the hot dogs and a pretzel for under 15 dollars.

Everyone sees it. All the pundits see it. Sweet 16 teams are from power conferences. The Cinderella is dead.

NIL has killed mid majors.

Again, if I were a student involved in the SGA, my platform would be to remove the tremendous amount of student fees that feeds the sports complex that means absolutely nothing.

No restrictions on transfer and NIL being pay for play, its over.

Shitty shit happens and you just have to make the best of it.

If MT is playing WKU in anything, I'm going to watch and pull for MT. I don't care if the players are literally the 50 worst players to have ever buckled on a helmet. I don't care if every single player on our team is headed for a future of loading lumber at Lowe's. I'm still watching.

I do think sooner or later a framework will shake out and there will be some sort of division for schools like ours. The current trajectory is unsustainable for all but maybe 20 programs. Teams way higher up the totem pole by virtue of history/tradition/budget/fan base/success are going to find themselves just as screwed. Hell, take a gander on over to some Vols message boards and it's starting to sink in that even them, with all the resources they can muster - they're realizing that they're not the biggest swinging you-know-what when the name of the game is deepest pocket wins.

At the end of the day, you can support your alma mater at what ever level we compete at, or you can find something else to do with your entertainment dollars/interest. I'll choose the former.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

I'd like to think at some point, even the big school donors will get tired of paying millions to these kids... It may not be in my lifetime, but they will eventually get tired of a coach coming every year, hey, I need $5M for this kid in high school.

 

[mtfblue]

I thought with the settlement, that NCAA was going to ban collectives, NIL will be around but it would have to come with endorsing something.

 

[DisgruntledAlum]

I thought with the settlement, that NCAA was going to ban collectives, NIL will be around but it would have to come with endorsing something.

I thought was the original intent to begin with. Allow kids to make commercials, not flat out have minimum amounts.

 

[MidTennMtneer]

I thought with the settlement, that NCAA was going to ban collectives, NIL will be around but it would have to come with endorsing something.

The settlement allows collectives to be brought into the schools if desired, but most aren't. We aren't. They are giving points etc just like we do. Raiders Rising members get priority points just like a BRAA member. But RR is fully separate from the school....well...yes and no.

The settlement does restrict NIL deals. That's what I mean by new donors. The settlement creates a "clearing house", essentially 3rd party arbitration that is run by accounting firm Deloitte. NCAA has nothing to do with it. All collective deals over $600 that are done by someone associated previously with the university, ie me as a BRAA member, must go through the clearing house to ensure fair market value and that they are true NIL deals and not flat payments. In other words the true actual spirit of NIL that no one has an issue with.

Deals done by new donors are not subject to the review.....kind of. "Affiliated entities" is the term used. The line is blurry on if collectives like RR are affiliates. There are already lawsuits on that front as well filed as being against the House settlement over the clearing house as it still restricts athletes ability to be paid, just not by the NCAA now.

As said in this article:
“NIL collectives are private entities not controlled by the school and not guided by Title IX,” said Carter. “This allows NIL collectives to take the money they’ve collected and distribute it however they see fit, which most of time is going to go toward the football program and, after that, men and women’s basketball. A tiny percentage of what’s leftover could potentially go to student athletes in other sports.”

NIL’s Impact on College Sports from a Funding, Facilities and Student-Athlete Perspective - HOK

Experts share how Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) is transforming college athletics when it comes to program funding, sports facilities and the role of student athletes.

www.hok.com

What most likely will happen is schools like Ohio State will keep THE Foundation as an affiliated entity, but one of their high donors will simply start a new "marketing" firm that pays athletes directly. The coaches won't talk to that firm directly, thereby skirting the whole thing.
That goes along with the agreement with the State of Tennessee and their lawsuit. As part of that settlement the NCAA won't police NIL deals or payments themselves and schools and their "third parties" CAN use them for recruiting. That was just signed this morning by a judge.

Federal Judge Approves NCAA Settlement in Lawsuit Led by Tennessee over NIL Recruitment Ban - Tennessee Star

A federal judge approved a final settlement deal between a bipartisan coalition of states led by Tennessee with the NCAA.

tennesseestar.com