LADY RAIDER BB Special season brewing
- Thread starter Matt Dossett
- Start date
A special season at this point is a ncaa tournament bid, whether automatic or at-large and getting at least one win...
Best not to over estimate the kindness of the NCAA when it comes to being a G5 school. Last year's squad made it to the top 25 for a short period & finished regular season 25-4. With 3 conference tournament wins we made it to the NCAA with an excellent 28-4 record, but we received only an 11 seed.
This year if we finish 24-6 we will probably have a Net Ranking in the low to mid 40's. To make the tourney we'll have to win 3 conference tournament games giving us a record of 27-6. That's not quite as stellar as last year's 28-4 which also included a victory over ranked Louisville.
IMO we would likely receive a 12 or 13 seed.
I dislike the women's tournament bracket format. It totally favors seeding Power 5 teams on their home court. Very hard to beat a top 15 team in front of 10,000 fans on their home court. If given a 13 seed that's exactly what our ladies will be up against facing a 4 seed on their home court. As a possible 12 seed facing a top 20-25 team on a neutral court would be tough enough, but not impossible.
If we win our tournament, but have one or two added regular season losses MT will likely be a 13 or 14 seed come March.
This year if we finish 24-6 we will probably have a Net Ranking in the low to mid 40's. To make the tourney we'll have to win 3 conference tournament games giving us a record of 27-6. That's not quite as stellar as last year's 28-4 which also included a victory over ranked Louisville.
IMO we would likely receive a 12 or 13 seed.
I dislike the women's tournament bracket format. It totally favors seeding Power 5 teams on their home court. Very hard to beat a top 15 team in front of 10,000 fans on their home court. If given a 13 seed that's exactly what our ladies will be up against facing a 4 seed on their home court. As a possible 12 seed facing a top 20-25 team on a neutral court would be tough enough, but not impossible.
If we win our tournament, but have one or two added regular season losses MT will likely be a 13 or 14 seed come March.
Part of the reason why staying put in C-USA was a massive screw up. I'm not a fan of the setup either, but Middle isn't gonna get the benefit of the doubt when their history in the NCAAT under Insell has been ugly.
Last years team was good but how many wins did they have against tourney teams? Obviously beating Louisville was impressive, but it wasn't one of their best teams. They let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers against Princeton.
I'd put this staff against anyone else when it comes to scouting, recruiting and development. However, being a top 50-75 program is the ceiling for this program until CRI faces the reality that going 6-7 deep will get you beat come tournament time. Trust the time you invested in these girls and allow them to grow on the floor when it's a tight game, not when your 30. There's no reason anyone should be playing more than 32 min a game
CRI talked post game the other night about us fans being critical of him come tournament time on some of his philosophies. And he's right, we certainly have been. Including myself as well. There's one thing about Rick at the age of 72. He & Popeye the Sailor Man go by the same statement, "I yam what I yam..." Rick is a tough old dog, & no matter what the deal it's tough to teach an old dog new tricks.
As time goes on watching Lady Raider basketball I've just decided to set back & enjoy the show until it comes to an end. Despite disagreeing with how some things are said & done I've decided to just wish Rick & the Ladies the best, & let the chips fall wherever they fall. Good luck & best wishes team!
I would like to see a conference tournament win and a tourney win in the ncaa or two. I've got the feeling that either this season or next is CRI's last hurrah, before retiring. It would make sense for it to be with this team. I doubt next season will be as a good of a swan song as this year.
This season I think we have all the pieces to do it. We've seen in games both last year and this year how we can really dominate against good P5 teams and even blow them out (Louisville last year and UT this year). With a good matchup, ideally against a non-hosting higher seed like we had this past season but not a future top 5 team again (... sigh), I think we can do it this time around.
I sure hope so, that would be great. So if we do go to the big dance who could be relied upon at a critical phase of the game? My only answer is we must have a leader on the floor that can make a shot, & take command to settle the team's nerves in tough stretches. Unfortunately I don't think it's going to be a strategic assist from the bench, we've seen that scenario more than once. It must be from one of our players. She's been inconsistent at times in the past as many of our players have, but I’m thinking Savannah Wheeler may be ready to be that person in the tournament. Hope she can avoid those 1-9 shooting nights. In the NCAA a great guard can win you a game. Her free throw shooting is always excellent. If she can be that solid producer from the field everything else opens up for us. I see her being an essential piece of the puzzle towards helping MT make a name for itself. Fingers crossed.
I agree. Savannah has come up clutch big-time in many games this year and last, and she's growing every time out. I have a lot of faith in her and it's clear she has self-confidence too. I think this year could be a big one for us. Also in the Coaches' Show tonight, Rick mentioned knowing that we'll need to play both Nas and Iulia at the same time especially against the bigger P5 teams -- that is gonna be a key cog to our success this year, and I'm very glad he sees how good we are with that huge size.
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A question for anyone that knows. Has Wheeler used up all eligibility? I'm pretty sure Whitson was able to use an additional year this year for grad studies. Wasn't sure if part of that was a Covid related option. Since Savannah recently received her undergrad degree is she eligible for 1 more year as a grad student next year if she so desires?
Would love to see her in the backcourt with a healthy Jada Harrison. If so, we could have the makings of another great team.
Would love to see her in the backcourt with a healthy Jada Harrison. If so, we could have the makings of another great team.
I believe she'll be eligible for a COVID year. Don't quote me on that though lol. (I think she'll be done after this year but who knows?)
Of the four wbb and four mbb games yesterday, the win by the Lady Raiders was the only one by a visiting team.
Re-watched the FIU game. It's rare to see a complete bludgeoning of a good team like that, especially on the road. Reminded me of when a coach says about a great player, "the game has finally slowed down for them." Everyone understood their position & place on the court so well it appeared at times almost effortless for them. The other thing I liked, while it was probably the most complete game of the year there were no huge end of game reactions from the players. They reacted calmly as if they totally expected to play as they did.
I know not every remaining game will be like the past one, but would be something to see if they were.
I know not every remaining game will be like the past one, but would be something to see if they were.
Before we played FIU, they had received votes in the Top 25 the day after we beat Jacksonville St. I kept hoping that MTSU would come out smoking, but keep it up through the game. If they didn't with another team receiving the accolades that MTSU felt it deserved, they never would. They had as complete of a game as I have seen from them in a while.
A little statistical data comparing the 1st 10 games to the last 10 games of regular season for the Lady Raiders.
1st 10 games:
Offensive scoring avg: 68.5 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 60.1 ppg
2nd 10 games:
Offensive scoring avg: 75.2 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 54.5 ppg
Season combined averages:
Offensive scoring avg: 71.8 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 57.3 ppg
Considerable improvement on scoring differential for 2nd 10 games. Team went from basically an 8 point scoring margin of victory over their opponents their 1st 10 games to almost a whopping 21 point scoring margin for the second 10 games.
Not only a major improvement in Offensive efficiency, but Defensive efficiency as well. Looking forward to seeing if the Ladies & coaching staff can maintain such an impressive margin of victory over the upcoming last 10 games of the regular season.
1st 10 games:
Offensive scoring avg: 68.5 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 60.1 ppg
2nd 10 games:
Offensive scoring avg: 75.2 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 54.5 ppg
Season combined averages:
Offensive scoring avg: 71.8 ppg
Defensive scoring avg: 57.3 ppg
Considerable improvement on scoring differential for 2nd 10 games. Team went from basically an 8 point scoring margin of victory over their opponents their 1st 10 games to almost a whopping 21 point scoring margin for the second 10 games.
Not only a major improvement in Offensive efficiency, but Defensive efficiency as well. Looking forward to seeing if the Ladies & coaching staff can maintain such an impressive margin of victory over the upcoming last 10 games of the regular season.
First off, I am ALWAYS appreciative of anyone who puts in the time and effort it takes to support a narrative with statistics and data. It’s a lot of work instead of just throwing a lazy narrative out there. So many thanks for that 👏👏👏.
The only thing I would mention is I think we could all agree our schedule the first 10 games was more challenging than the last 10? We play in a rather pedestrian conference and 6 of our last 10 games were against conference teams. So that “could” skew the numbers somewhat. Quality & caliber of an opponent can matter.
Really good teams, in any sport, peak at the right time. Hopefully that’s what’s happening here.
Again, thanks for putting in the work!👏
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Appreciate that, but actually only took about 5-6 minutes. I agree that the conference as a whole is not as strong as our non-conference schedule. But I also think our 1st 5 are playing much better now than earlier in the year. The stability of playing as a solid unit instead of trying to find different player combos as so many teams have to do is paying off in the long run. Hopefully we're peaking at the right time, & not too early with a full month left in the season.
Charlie Creme has MT as an 11 seed in Baton Rouge against 6 Baylor
Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection
Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.
www.espn.com
Better than LACharlie Creme has MT as an 11 seed in Baton Rouge against 6 Baylor
Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection
Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.www.espn.com
Bracketology is a frustrating thing for a G5 school like MT. Last year we had 5-6 weeks ranked in the AP Poll top 25. You would think it should have corresponded to a 6 or 7 seed going into the NCAA's. Instead we get an 11 seed in the tournament. Now this year we're not in the top 25, yet still considered an 11 seed.
I feel the NCAA doesn't care if we're #25 or #45 in the rankings. All they're willing to give us is an 11 or 12 seed period, & to get that seeding we better win our conference tournament. Otherwise even with a top 25 NET if we lose in our conference tournament it's hello WNIT all over again.
I feel the NCAA doesn't care if we're #25 or #45 in the rankings. All they're willing to give us is an 11 or 12 seed period, & to get that seeding we better win our conference tournament. Otherwise even with a top 25 NET if we lose in our conference tournament it's hello WNIT all over again.
Need to look at it from the selection committee's view as well. A good team that plays in a mediocre conference with a terrible record in the tourney (as of late), what reason would they have to reward MT with a 6 seed or better? The people that vote in the AP or Coaches arent gonna have a say in seeding.
I know it's fun to talk about the NET ranking but pretty clear it doesn't help MT one bit. Middle had the respect of the committee after making them look good at the end of the Stephany Smith era, but if your a G5, you can't have a cold spell of going 17 years without a tourney win.
Blame the idiots that thought staying in C-USA was a good idea
