Okay Flash, Mike...It's Prediction Time for the Senate Races!

[bigbadjohn45]

Flash/Mike,

Alrighty my friends, we're six days away from the crucial Midterm Elections, and, according to Real Clear Politics, there are 10 states currently listed as "tossups." So, let's get your state-by-state predictions and we'll compare our picks against the results this Wednesday--that is--unless there are run-off elections which will push a few results back a few months.

Here's my state-by-state picks:

Alaska: I'll go with with Republican Dan Sullivan to defeat incumbent Democrat Mark Begich.

Arkansas: Look for Republican Tom Cotton to oust incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor.

Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner will soundly beat incumbent Democrat Mark "Uterus" Udall.

Georgia: I believe businessman David Perdue (Republican) will eventually defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn, although this one may go to a runoff in January.

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst has run a stellar campaign and will defeat Democrat Bruce Braley.

Kansas: I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I have my doubts that Republican incumbent Pat Roberts will prevail. "Independent" Greg Orman, who will most assuredly vote with the Democrats, may just steal this one. We can't win 'em all, folks.

Kentucky: RINO Mitch McConnell will win again--this time against an extremely weak challenger in Democrat Alison Grimes.

Louisiana: I believe Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will ultimately prevail against liberal, Obama-supporting, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu--although this race will most likely be decided in a runoff. I hope I'm right here as I cannot stand the sight of Landrieu.

New Hampshire: It's hard to see any Republican winning in the liberal bastion of the Northeast, and I think incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen narrowly escapes with a win over Republican challenger Scott Brown.

North Carolina: I've waffled back and forth on this one. I think Republican Thom Tillis eeks out a close victory over incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. I sure hope I'm right on this one as I cannot stand Hagan either! (See earlier comments about Mary Landrieu!)

Your picks?

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Here's my state-by-state picks:

Alaska: I'll go with with Republican Dan Sullivan to defeat incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Agree

Arkansas: Look for Republican Tom Cotton to oust incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Agree

Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner will soundly beat incumbent Democrat Mark "Uterus" Udall. Agree

Georgia: I believe businessman David Perdue (Republican) will eventually defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn, although this one may go to a runoff in January. Agree

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst has run a stellar campaign and will defeat Democrat Bruce Braley. Agree

Kansas: I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I have my doubts that Republican incumbent Pat Roberts will prevail. "Independent" Greg Orman, who will most assuredly vote with the Democrats, may just steal this one. We can't win 'em all, folks. Disagree

Kentucky: RINO Mitch McConnell will win again--this time against an extremely weak challenger in Democrat Alison Grimes. Agree

Louisiana: I believe Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will ultimately prevail against liberal, Obama-supporting, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu--although this race will most likely be decided in a runoff. I hope I'm right here as I cannot stand the sight of Landrieu. Agree

New Hampshire: It's hard to see any Republican winning in the liberal bastion of the Northeast, and I think incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen narrowly escapes with a win over Republican challenger Scott Brown. Agree

North Carolina: I've waffled back and forth on this one. I think Republican Thom Tillis eeks out a close victory over incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. I sure hope I'm right on this one as I cannot stand Hagan either! (See earlier comments about Mary Landrieu!) Disagree


BBJ, I have followed some of these races but I have not really had the time to study each one very closely. That said, I will have to defer to the latest election forecast (see link).

2014 MIDTERM ELECTIONS FORECAST

 

[RandallThomason]

I'd love to see all 10 of those go in the GOP column. I would say 7 or 8 is more likely. Worried about NC, GA, and NH especially. It's hard to believe that in a true "wave environment" that the GOP candidate is having a hard time getting over the hump in Georgia and North Carolina.

I do think Mitch will win in Kentucky.

I'd like to see the GOP pick up the senate and have enough influence over a few dems in the senate to be able to send a full ObamaCare repeal bill to the president's desk. Even when it's vetoed, just getting such a bill to his desk and out of Harry Reid's would be a big political victory.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by nashvillegoldenflash:
Here's my state-by-state picks:

Alaska: I'll go with with Republican Dan Sullivan to defeat incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Agree

Arkansas: Look for Republican Tom Cotton to oust incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Agree

Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner will soundly beat incumbent Democrat Mark "Uterus" Udall. Agree

Georgia: I believe businessman David Perdue (Republican) will eventually defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn, although this one may go to a runoff in January. Agree

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst has run a stellar campaign and will defeat Democrat Bruce Braley. Agree

Kansas: I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I have my doubts that Republican incumbent Pat Roberts will prevail. "Independent" Greg Orman, who will most assuredly vote with the Democrats, may just steal this one. We can't win 'em all, folks. Disagree

Kentucky: RINO Mitch McConnell will win again--this time against an extremely weak challenger in Democrat Alison Grimes. Agree

Louisiana: I believe Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will ultimately prevail against liberal, Obama-supporting, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu--although this race will most likely be decided in a runoff. I hope I'm right here as I cannot stand the sight of Landrieu. Agree

New Hampshire: It's hard to see any Republican winning in the liberal bastion of the Northeast, and I think incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen narrowly escapes with a win over Republican challenger Scott Brown. Agree

North Carolina: I've waffled back and forth on this one. I think Republican Thom Tillis eeks out a close victory over incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. I sure hope I'm right on this one as I cannot stand Hagan either! (See earlier comments about Mary Landrieu!) Disagree


BBJ, I have followed some of these races but I have not really had the time to study each one very closely. That said, I will have to defer to the latest election forecast (see link).

Flash, thanks for participating in my little prediction thread!

With regard to your picks, I'd have to say I hope you're right about Kansas and wrong about North Carolina. Along with Georgia, those two states are my toughest to figure out the outcome of. I do hope Thom Tillis can pull it out in North Carolina over liberal Kay Hagan. That race will probably be the most expensive statewide race in history. I do fear rampant voter fraud in North Carolina could still allow Hagan to steal the election. We'll have to wait and see on that one.

At any rate, RINO Pat Roberts is vulnerable in Kansas, I believe, and may very well lose. However, let's hope the good folks in Kansas will do the right thing to help ensure a Republican Senate and return Roberts for another term.

Additionally, I agree that David Perdue should prevail in Georgia--although it bothers me that supposed "red" states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Kansas should even be close.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by RandallThomason:
I'd love to see all 10 of those go in the GOP column. I would say 7 or 8 is more likely. Worried about NC, GA, and NH especially. It's hard to believe that in a true "wave environment" that the GOP candidate is having a hard time getting over the hump in Georgia and North Carolina.

I do think Mitch will win in Kentucky.

I'd like to see the GOP pick up the senate and have enough influence over a few dems in the senate to be able to send a full ObamaCare repeal bill to the president's desk. Even when it's vetoed, just getting such a bill to his desk and out of Harry Reid's would be a big political victory.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Randall, thanks for your participation in my prediction thread. Like you, I'd love to see the GOP triumph in all 10 "tossup" states; however, that's probably not going to happen. I agree with your concern about the states of North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire, but I think another huge concern is Kansas. I'm not sure if the voters of Kansas will drag RINO Pat Roberts across the finish line this go around....

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Republican Louisiana state Sen. Elbert Guillory has cut a new ad accusing Democratic North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan of using black people for votes, then ignoring them until the next election.

The ad, produced by Sen. Mary Landrieu. In that ad, Guillory stands in his hometown of Opelousas, Louisiana, and says Democratic policies have failed the black community.

In the anti-Hagan ad, Guillory, who is black, notes that in 2008, 95 percent of black North Carolina voters cast their ballots for Hagan.

"The Democrats have created the illusion that they are the salvation of the black community. But who among us have they saved?" Guillory asks in the ad.

He said black people are being "used" by "limousine liberals who have become our new overseers," as a photo of Hagan is shown.

"We've only traded one plantation for another," he says. "You are not Kay Hagan's cause, and you are certainly not her charity. You are just a vote. She has stepped off your backs to fame and fortune and left you behind on food stamps, deprived of the American dream."




This post was edited on 10/30 1:01 PM by nashvillegoldenflash

Elbert Guillory: Send Hagan Home

 

[Blueraider_Mike]

The Rs pick up 7, maybe 8 with KS too close to call.

The D's keep NH and NC. If it was a wave election those two would fall but its not.

So a 52-48 majority.

Which since the ACA was passed with 51 votes and the Supreme court defined as tax legislation it ONLY takes 51 votes to repeal it. Chew on that....

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Well, we're just two days away and the DNC Chair seems confident that the Democrats will hold the Senate (see link). It's almost like she knows key Democrat demographics are going to turn out in droves. Those key demographics being the dead, the illegal, and the multiple voters. That said, you can never depend on the polls to be right. Voter fraud is so prevalent in the democratic precincts that we really can't be sure of anything until long after the voting booths close on Tuesday. But I'm still reasonably confident the Republicans will take both the House and Senate.



'We're going to hold the Senate'

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by nashvillegoldenflash:
Well, we're just two days away and the DNC Chair seems confident that the Democrats will hold the Senate (see link). It's almost like she knows key Democrat demographics are going to turn out in droves. Those key demographics being the dead, the illegal, and the multiple voters. That said, you can never depend on the polls to be right. Voter fraud is so prevalent in the democratic precincts that we really can't be sure of anything until long after the voting booths close on Tuesday. But I'm still reasonably confident the Republicans will take both the House and Senate.

Flash, this is definitely concerning to us. We've talked about rampant voter fraud on here ad nauseum, and I've read where it's going to be a factor in North Carolina's Senate race (Hagan v. Tillis). I wouldn't be surprised if Hagan wins by the margin of voter fraud as voter id laws were suspended there by a liberal (Obama-appointed) judge. I'm still hopeful we can get to a 51-seat majority, though. It'll be interesting to see what happens....

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by Blueraider_Mike:
The Rs pick up 7, maybe 8 with KS too close to call.

The D's keep NH and NC. If it was a wave election those two would fall but its not.

So a 52-48 majority.

Which since the ACA was passed with 51 votes and the Supreme court defined as tax legislation it ONLY takes 51 votes to repeal it. Chew on that....

I think your prediction that the GOP picks up seven Senate seats is a pretty good guess--bringing them to a 52-48 advantage overall. I think Kansas and North Carolina are the two that are too close to call. I'm hoping for the best with those two. Meanwhile, I agree that New Hampshire remains with the Dem's (Shaheen).

Meanwhile, I think it's highly likely Louisiana and perhaps Georgia are decided by runoff elections. I think the GOP prevails in both states, though, if it comes to that.
This post was edited on 11/3 9:02 AM by bigbadjohn45

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by nashvillegoldenflash:
Well, we're just two days away and the DNC Chair seems confident that the Democrats will hold the Senate (see link). It's almost like she knows key Democrat demographics are going to turn out in droves. Those key demographics being the dead, the illegal, and the multiple voters. That said, you can never depend on the polls to be right. Voter fraud is so prevalent in the democratic precincts that we really can't be sure of anything until long after the voting booths close on Tuesday. But I'm still reasonably confident the Republicans will take both the House and Senate.

Flash, here's a poll that just came out showing Republican challenger Thom Tillis with a 2-point-lead against incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in North Carolina:

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/north-carolina-senate-poll-21422298

North Carolina should be interesting to watch. Looks to be neck-and-neck there....

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

That's nice to know BBJ, but I'm still concerned about voter fraud. I have the feeling that we'll be up late tomorrow night because there are so many tight races.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by nashvillegoldenflash:


That's nice to know BBJ, but I'm still concerned about voter fraud. I have the feeling that we'll be up late tomorrow night because there are so many tight races.

You're probably right, but here's another recent poll from the North Carolina Senate race, showing Tillis up by 5 points over Hagan:

http://www.argojournal.com/2014/10/poll-watch-vox-populi-polling-r-north.html

Let's hope and pray we can overcome the voter fraud. We need every vote we can get.

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

A new video released Breitbart.com said the North Carolina State Board of Elections has launched an investigation into the allegations presented by the video.


"We have folks who are investigating it. We actually have one of our people going down to Charlotte today to look into this matter more fully," said State Board of Elections spokesman Josh Lawson. He also said the board has requested Project Veritas provide the full, unedited video.


"It is illegal to vote as a non-citizen," Breitbart said. "It is also illegal to assist non-citizens to vote."
Recently, an audit revealed that more than 1,400 non-citizen immigrants are on North Carolina's voter rolls. According to Lawson, about 20 have already cast early ballots or voted absentee.


"These are folks that based on the database comparisons from Homeland Security and from the DMV showed up as non-citizens, but they have not had a hearing yet," he said. "So it is not like I could say to you definitively non-citizens are voting." About 226 of the 1,425 illegal immigrants have voted in previous elections.


"We're looking today to finalize a guidance to the counties regarding a challenge procedure in the event that an individual flagged by the citizenship audit shows up to the polls," Lawson added. "So we're hoping to get that out to the counties later this afternoon."


In late October, the Democrats in some close races. Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., for example, won in 2008 with only 312 votes. The Post also said it was possible that Obama won North Carolina as a result of votes by non-citizens.


It's also not the first time North Carolina has been the subject of stories involving voter fraud. Earlier this year, we reported that a study provided evidence of Thom Tillis.













This post was edited on 11/3 5:15 PM by nashvillegoldenflash

North Carolina investigating voter fraud by Dems

 

[bigbadjohn45]

No doubt this is a huge problem, my friend. The Voter ID Law will not go into effect in North Carolina until the 2016 election, unfortunately....

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Originally posted by nashvillegoldenflash:
Here's my state-by-state picks:

Alaska: I'll go with with Republican Dan Sullivan to defeat incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Agree

Arkansas: Look for Republican Tom Cotton to oust incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Agree

Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner will soundly beat incumbent Democrat Mark "Uterus" Udall. Agree

Georgia: I believe businessman David Perdue (Republican) will eventually defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn, although this one may go to a runoff in January. Agree

Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst has run a stellar campaign and will defeat Democrat Bruce Braley. Agree

Kansas: I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I have my doubts that Republican incumbent Pat Roberts will prevail. "Independent" Greg Orman, who will most assuredly vote with the Democrats, may just steal this one. We can't win 'em all, folks. Disagree

Kentucky: RINO Mitch McConnell will win again--this time against an extremely weak challenger in Democrat Alison Grimes. Agree

Louisiana: I believe Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will ultimately prevail against liberal, Obama-supporting, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu--although this race will most likely be decided in a runoff. I hope I'm right here as I cannot stand the sight of Landrieu. Agree

New Hampshire: It's hard to see any Republican winning in the liberal bastion of the Northeast, and I think incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen narrowly escapes with a win over Republican challenger Scott Brown. Agree

North Carolina: I've waffled back and forth on this one. I think Republican Thom Tillis eeks out a close victory over incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. I sure hope I'm right on this one as I cannot stand Hagan either! (See earlier comments about Mary Landrieu!) Disagree


BBJ, I have followed some of these races but I have not really had the time to study each one very closely. That said, I will have to defer to the latest election forecast (see link).

Flash, it looks like you were right about Kansas! Thank goodness the voters of Kansas did the right thing to reelect Sen. Pat Roberts! Additionally, Gov. Sam Brownback was reelected, as well. I was sure glad to see Thom Tillis defeat Kay Hagan in North Carolina! I guess my only miss was Kansas, but I'm glad I missed it! It's a great day to be a Republican, isn't it?