What seed would MT end up with?
I may be off base here but I'll go ahead and guess anywhere from 6-9.
Thoughts?
I may be off base here but I'll go ahead and guess anywhere from 6-9.
Thoughts?
If we were to win out from here on out including Sun Belt Tournament.....
- Thread starter BlueRaiderVol
- Start date
Closest Sun Belt comp I can think of to that scenario would be the 2001-02 WKU team which I believe went 28-3 through the conference tournament and was given a 9 seed. I doubt there is a scenario where we could get anything better than that and likely not better than 10 IMO. I'd rather be a 10 than a 9 anyway if it came down to that.
In practicality though, I really don't expect us to win out. We have a really good squad, but far from an unbeatable one. I'd say the odds of running the table through the conference tournament are less than 10 percent.
This post was edited on 1/18 3:39 PM by RandallThomason
In practicality though, I really don't expect us to win out. We have a really good squad, but far from an unbeatable one. I'd say the odds of running the table through the conference tournament are less than 10 percent.
This post was edited on 1/18 3:39 PM by RandallThomason
My concern is that it looks like the team is starting to peak a bit. Kermit said last night he wasn't worried about it but to me, you dont want to peak mid-season and set yourself up with every game being "the other guys superbowl".
I think it would do MT some good to lose a couple between here and Hot Springs which would force them to regroup and adjust rather than just sticking with what works. Sounds weird I know...but you cannot afford another letdown in Hot Springs or the couple of games leading into the SBC Tournament.
Just my opinion on the matter.
But if they did win out, I think you're looking at an 8/9 seed AT BEST, but probably more along the lines of a 10 like Randall said.
I think it would do MT some good to lose a couple between here and Hot Springs which would force them to regroup and adjust rather than just sticking with what works. Sounds weird I know...but you cannot afford another letdown in Hot Springs or the couple of games leading into the SBC Tournament.
Just my opinion on the matter.
But if they did win out, I think you're looking at an 8/9 seed AT BEST, but probably more along the lines of a 10 like Randall said.
4 or 5 seed......in the NIT! It is great to see Kermit and young men give "The Rat" Shields and UALR an excellent beat down. Just my opinion, I don't think they are looking like they are peaking. Lots of kinks to work out. Credit that they are winning as many as they are without peaking. Front court needs way more consistency. Clearly, JT Sulton is the one hurt the most by the loss of Dendy. Last year, he was greatly benefited from being left wide open for a dish from Dendy etc who was double and triple teamed. I was concerned that he would struggle this year without a bunch of the attention going to Dendy. Hopefully Sulton can improve and increase output. Same goes for Shawn Jones. Heck, his upside is unbelievably crazy good. It is frustrating to watch him not realize but in limited episodes. Call me crazy, but I think Walker could be a tremendous asset for MTSU. It's good to see him get more PT. Hopefully he will continue to develop as he could level the playing field against some of the top teams with big deep front courts. I think Walker has problem of being a true legitimate traditional Center on a team that is all about the stretch 4. Let Walker play to his strengths at appropriate times, and I think he could be a real force for the team. Hunter is coming along nicely with good contribution. The back court is so experienced and deep and excellent. At the swing, Hammonds is really coming along and playing excellent ball after a somewhat slow start to the season. Marcos Knight is simply just incredible. A real rarity. What 6-2? Plays like he is 6-7! Reminds me of that incredible guard UNO had back a number of years ago under Monte Towe. Coincidence? In my mind, coach Towe just might be the unsung hero of MTSU basketball right now. Massey and little brother Knight are a great combo to run the point. Good size, strong, and aggressive right at the point of attack. As long as they are consistent, a true strength for the team. Just what the doctor ordered for a team to have a shot at a tourney run.
Credit Kermit for having these guys playing defense. It is winning games when the offense is off. If MTSU can get good consistency in flow of offense with ball movement, cuts down the lane, and the extra pass, then I think MTSU might start hitting their peak. They had great offensive flow and ball movement last year. They wore down defenses and waited for them to make mistakes or breakdown and attacked the rim. They were also excellent at making that extra pass for the high percentage shot. While it seems to me they are working at that this year, it does not seem like they have really gotten into that offensive flow on a consistent basis yet this season. If they do, they will be peaking. They are showing signs. IMO, peaking at the right time is a possibility. Still, there are a couple of coaches who get at Kermit. In that regard, MTSU has to figure out how to beat Ark St if MTSU wants to go dancing IMO. Don't look now, but WKU looks like they are getting back to being, well, Western. MTSU must own WKU this year if there is to be any chance at dancing. All of the aforementioned put together puts MTSU in the tourney with the coveted 12 seed. If MTSU does not develop front court players, offensive flow, Ark St, and WKU, MTSU will likely be back in the NIT.
IMO, over 20 years no tourney and a Blown, with capital B, opportunity last year for the dance, MTSU has to prove and earn their way into the tourney before I start celebrating it much less expecting it. Especially the case before counting on anything above an 11 seed. Bottomline, gotta get their first.
Credit Kermit for having these guys playing defense. It is winning games when the offense is off. If MTSU can get good consistency in flow of offense with ball movement, cuts down the lane, and the extra pass, then I think MTSU might start hitting their peak. They had great offensive flow and ball movement last year. They wore down defenses and waited for them to make mistakes or breakdown and attacked the rim. They were also excellent at making that extra pass for the high percentage shot. While it seems to me they are working at that this year, it does not seem like they have really gotten into that offensive flow on a consistent basis yet this season. If they do, they will be peaking. They are showing signs. IMO, peaking at the right time is a possibility. Still, there are a couple of coaches who get at Kermit. In that regard, MTSU has to figure out how to beat Ark St if MTSU wants to go dancing IMO. Don't look now, but WKU looks like they are getting back to being, well, Western. MTSU must own WKU this year if there is to be any chance at dancing. All of the aforementioned put together puts MTSU in the tourney with the coveted 12 seed. If MTSU does not develop front court players, offensive flow, Ark St, and WKU, MTSU will likely be back in the NIT.
IMO, over 20 years no tourney and a Blown, with capital B, opportunity last year for the dance, MTSU has to prove and earn their way into the tourney before I start celebrating it much less expecting it. Especially the case before counting on anything above an 11 seed. Bottomline, gotta get their first.
Great post, but WKU hasn't been too impressive this year (they're 5-4 in conference) and they just lost to UALR, who we beat by 32. WKU is suffering from some injuries, so it'll be interesting to see how much they improve when they get everyone back healthy.
It sounds like there is some growing skepticism among some WKU fans that Harper is not the right man for that job long term. Obviously he had a great run last year and has some major injury problems right now, but reading through some random message board posts there seems to be some concern about his ability to restock the roster with the kind of talent they used to have in abundance.
A little off the subject but if I was a WKU fan I would be questioning whether or not moving to FBS football was the right decision. If it weren't for that move, I imagine WKU could have had a very legitimate chance to be playing in the A-10 right now or perhaps be a major candidate to join the old Big East hoops schools in a power hoops conference. From the outside looking in, WKU put a very proud hoops tradition at risk when they invested so heavily in making the move in football and their results in basketball since making the move up pale in comparison to what they achieved regularly for a long time prior to that.
Again, I say all that as a total outsider to the inner workings of WKU athletics, so maybe my thinking is entirely off base with how their fan base looks at the issue. Just putting my thoughts out there.
Here at MT, I think we had a lot more to gain and a lot less to lose by moving up to FBS. WKU could have competed for FCS national titles and had a better chance to sustain and build on the great basketball tradition that they had. Maybe they still can and this is just a bad stretch, but I've posted in detail before how the evidence shows that it's very hard for non-top tier schools to sustain high level basketball success and play FBS football. Was thinking about that again last night watching the great Butler/Gonzaga game.
This post was edited on 1/20 11:04 PM by RandallThomason
I think it comes down to hiring a great coach and either paying to keep him or finding a suitable replacement.
western didn't/couldn't pay Horn to stay and they made a bad hire with McDonald.
memphis state paid big bucks for Calipari and they haven't had the same success since he left.
Wonder what Butler and Gonzaga pay their coaches?
western didn't/couldn't pay Horn to stay and they made a bad hire with McDonald.
memphis state paid big bucks for Calipari and they haven't had the same success since he left.
Wonder what Butler and Gonzaga pay their coaches?
Randall: your thoughts on having D-1 football at a non-power conference school having a negative effect on BkB have given me food for thought since you first expressed them. IIRC the last mid-major poll I saw had BYU as the only D-1 FB playing school in the top 10 and MT was the next.
Your line of thinking took me to the conclusion that the Murray's, EKU's and AP's (what's happened to them?) of the OVC may regret adding Belmont if the non-FB playing, short time D-1 in BkB, poor fan support school in Nashville begins to dominate their conference against those with traditionally strong BkB. As a long-time BkB follower living in the mid-state and as a traditionalist who believes in time spent "seasoning" in all things Belmont does not deserve to be where they are regardless of coach, etc. Yet here they are, less that a dozen years removed from the NAIA, dominating the OVC against teams, some of which have been D-1 for over half a century, and they have by far the highest RPI in the entire state. Life just ain't fair. (Can you tell that to this MT fan the Blue Raiders success over the past two years is severely diminished by the fact that Belmont is better?)
This post was edited on 1/21 10:54 AM by MTFNBY5
Your line of thinking took me to the conclusion that the Murray's, EKU's and AP's (what's happened to them?) of the OVC may regret adding Belmont if the non-FB playing, short time D-1 in BkB, poor fan support school in Nashville begins to dominate their conference against those with traditionally strong BkB. As a long-time BkB follower living in the mid-state and as a traditionalist who believes in time spent "seasoning" in all things Belmont does not deserve to be where they are regardless of coach, etc. Yet here they are, less that a dozen years removed from the NAIA, dominating the OVC against teams, some of which have been D-1 for over half a century, and they have by far the highest RPI in the entire state. Life just ain't fair. (Can you tell that to this MT fan the Blue Raiders success over the past two years is severely diminished by the fact that Belmont is better?)
This post was edited on 1/21 10:54 AM by MTFNBY5
I have only seen Stevens' total compensation package estimated to be at "over $1 million annually," but I don't know exact number. He's had chances to leave and make more. I think Few makes a similar amount and he has turned down chances to make more. Stevens and Few know they are in great circumstances.
I don't think it's as simple as retaining coaches. Was Horn all that great of a coach? If he was, why did he flop at South Carolina? Why did Felton flop at Georgia? Why was Greg McDermott successful at Northern Iowa only to flop at Iowa State and now have a top 20 team at Creighton? Why was Dan Monson so successful at Gonzaga (where Mark Few is now successful) only to be fired at Minnesota and then re-emerge to build Long Beach State into a very good program? Why is Anthony Grant struggling to gain consistent traction so far at Alabama while Shaka Smart is rolling in success at Grant's former job, VCU?
To me, it is clear that having primary resources invested into your program's infrastructure is a key component of building and maintaining a program. Most schools have one clear front-running program that they put the most resources into. Although MT hasn't burst the door down in men's basketball in a while, I think it is really a pretty solid reflection on MT athletics that so many sports have achieved some level of consistent success and growth over the last decade. It's not an easy thing to pull off and I think a school like WKU is learning that the hard way right now.
I think the truly great coaches (Petino, Calipari) win with different staffs. Coaches who had been successful in the past (Horn and Felton, perhaps?) may have been dependent upon a key assistant. Andy McCollum wasn't successful after he lost Larry Fedora.
Randy Wiel lost his #1 assistant after his second season, IIRC, and the team never recovered:
2001-02 (14-15)
2000-01 (5-22)
1999-00 (15-13)
1998-99 (12-19)
1997-98 (19-9)
1996-97 (19-12)
And speaking of Randy Wiel, his son plays baseball at vandy:
This post was edited on 1/21 9:44 PM by MTLynn
Zander Wiel
Randy Wiel lost his #1 assistant after his second season, IIRC, and the team never recovered:
2001-02 (14-15)
2000-01 (5-22)
1999-00 (15-13)
1998-99 (12-19)
1997-98 (19-9)
1996-97 (19-12)
And speaking of Randy Wiel, his son plays baseball at vandy:
This post was edited on 1/21 9:44 PM by MTLynn
Zander Wiel
