Here's Why Cruz and Trump are BOTH Likely to Fall Short of 1237 Delegates

[nashvillegoldenflash]

• Cruz will be unable to reach 1237 delegates by end of April, but Trump will be practically unable to by the end of May.

• In remainder of April, Cruz is projected to win 190 delegates to Trump's 141.

• In May, Cruz is projected to win 111 delegates to Trump's 70.

• By end of May, Trump is projected to need 273 of remaining 303 delegates to clinch majority. The 56 delegates from Montana and South Dakota make that highly improbable.

• Trump knows Cruz is the second ballot favorite.

On Saturday, over at The Gateway Pundit, Joe Hoft put together a delegate math piece purporting to show that Cruz will be out of the running for 1237 delegates by the end of April. Hoft got that right, but his math used to get there is significantly off. What Hoft also fails to mention is that Trump will be effectively unable to reach 1237 delegates at the end of May.

Using Hoft’s report, the Trump campaign began to echo the elimination narrative. It also realized Trump’s own path to 1237 has significantly narrowed. When Trump fails to get to 1237, Cruz has already proven he has a superior second ballot strategy.

Hoft’s math has Cruz needing 687 delegates by the end of April. The actual number would show that Cruz would need fewer than 687 delegates by this Saturday.

Why Hoft is Wrong

By using the Associated Press delegate count, Hoft misses a lot of delegates already awarded. The AP count is Trump 736, Cruz 463, Kasich 143. The AP is off in Missouri, North Dakota, Colorado, and Guam. CR uses The Green Papers delegate apportionment as our base source.

The Green Papers current delegate count has Trump at 753 delegates, Cruz 478, and Kasich 144. The Green Papers awards Cruz only 8 delegates in North Dakota. That number is actually 18 based on Cruz’s pre-convention published list. That gives Cruz 488 delegates. If the five unpledged delegates from Louisiana are accounted for, that number goes up to 493. There are also a number of other unpledged delegates that have been selected, and delegates for other candidates in the mix.

The actual number of delegates remaining to be awarded/selected is 850. This includes 42 from Wisconsin and the remaining Wyoming and Colorado delegates. There are also 32 uncommitted delegates who have been selected but are unbound at this point.

To get to 1237, Donald Trump would need 56.9 percent of the remaining delegates, and Cruz would need 87.5 percent. This does not take into account any unbound delegates from other candidates, nor the pool of 32 unbound delegates who have thus far remained uncommitted to any one candidate.

This is the starting point.

Here’s Hoft’s problematic math, which shows a misunderstanding of many states.

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Continued:

Wisconsin

Hoft apportions the Wisconsin delegates as 40 for Cruz and two for Trump. It is impossible for anyone to get only two delegates in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a winner-take-all primary, by state and district. The minimum number of delegates winnable in Wisconsin is three, not two. Hoft’s projection is also off. The conventional wisdom is that Trump will win two congressional districts in the Northwest corner of Wisconsin. That would give Cruz 36 Delegates and Trump six delegates, with Kasich getting shut out. After Wisconsin, the delegate numbers would be Trump 759, Cruz 529 and Kasich 144. Trump would need 60 percent of the remaining delegates and Cruz would need 89 percent.

Colorado

Hoft conveniently leaves off Colorado from his analysis. Cruz has won 100 percent of all allotted delegates so far in Colorado, a win of six delegates. The remaining delegates for Colorado will be apportioned by this Saturday, April 9th, after the Colorado State Republican Convention.

The available pool of Colorado electors for delegate has already been selected. Trump and Kasich can no longer affect the elector selection. Cruz should win the remaining five congressional districts, for 15 delegates total. Cruz has put forth a strong slate of delegates to compete for the remaining 13 delegate slots. It is safe to assume Cruz would win ten of those slots and Trump three. In addition, there are three uncommitted Colorado delegates that represent the state’s members of the RNC.

Cruz should win an additional 25 delegates in Colorado, Trump three, with three remaining uncommitted. The projected delegate count would be Trump 762, Cruz 554, Kasich 144. Not counting the uncommitted delegates, Trump would need 61 percent, and Cruz 88 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch 1237.

It is important to note that Cruz would only need 683 delegates at this point. This is four delegates fewer than Hoft’s post-April 26th analysis shows. Hoft’s math is already busted.

Wyoming

Hoft also ignored Wyoming. Wyoming has apportioned 12 of their 26 non RNC member delegates. There are 14 left to apportion by April 16th. Wyoming’s current delegate count is Cruz nine, with Trump and Rubio each at one. If the remaining 14 are apportioned at the same ratios, Cruz should garner eleven, Trump two and Kasich one. In addition three RNC members are unbound by party rules.

The projected delegate totals after Wyoming would be Trump 764, Cruz 565, and Kasich 145. Trump would need 62 percent, and Cruz 88 percent of the remaining 760 delegates to clinch 1237.

New York

At this point, Trump would only have won a single state, Arizona in over a month. He would go into New York having not won a state in the previous four weeks. New York votes on April 19th.

New York is a proportional state with a 20 percent threshold. If you win over 50 percent of the vote statewide or in a congressional district, you win all of the delegates. If two or more candidates receive over 20 percent of the vote and one does not receive over 50 percent in a congressional district, the top vote getter is apportioned two delegates and the next vote getter is apportioned one.

Only 14 delegates are apportioned statewide, the remaining 81 are apportioned three each in New York’s 27 congressional districts. The Real Clear Politics average has Trump winning with over 50 percent at this point. Hoft is probably most correct in his New York analysis where Trump will gain 60 delegates, Cruz 30, and Kasich five.

The projected delegate count would be Trump 824, Cruz 595, and Kasich 150. Trump would need 62 percent and Cruz 96.5 percent of the remaining delegates to gain a majority of the remaining 665 delegates. Going forward it is unlikely that either candidate would get to 1237 delegates.

Northeast Tuesday


On April 26, 2016 five Northeastern states - Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island - hold primaries. 172 delegates are up for grabs. The delegate totals will be discussed after we go through each state.

Connecticut

Connecticut holds a hybrid primary. The statewide contest in Connecticut is proportional with a 20 percent threshold. If one candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote they receive all of the statewide delegates. Otherwise, the 13 statewide delegates are apportioned in a proportional manner. The winner of each of the five congressional districts is awarded three delegates. There are 28 total delegates.

Hoft has the state going 18 delegates for Trump and 10 delegates for Cruz. That math is difficult under the rules. Assuming that Trump gets 45 percent, Cruz 35 percent, and Kasich 20 percent of the vote the statewide delegate total would be Trump six, Cruz five, and Kasich two. Of the five congressional districts Trump should win three closest to New York City and Cruz could win the other two. That would be a delegate projection of Trump 15, Cruz 11, and Kasich two.

Delaware

Delaware awards their 16 delegates in a winner-take-all primary. While there is no evidence that Trump is stronger in Delaware than Cruz, for good measure let’s go with Hoft’s prediction that Trump will win these 16 delegates.

Maryland

Maryland is a winner-take-all hybrid state. The statewide winner will garner 14 at-large delegates. The winner of each of the eight congressional districts in Maryland will receive three delegates. The Maryland delegation is bound through the first two ballots.

Hoft has awarded all of Maryland’s delegates to Trump. The most recent poll has Trump up 34 to Cruz’s 25. The poll was taken a month ago when Rubio was still in the race. Wisconsin saw similar numbers until Cruz started spending time there. CR Senior Editor Daniel Horowitz lives in Maryland and expects Cruz to win almost every district and statewide because Maryland is a wealthy state, a closed primary, and the state’s GOP voters are more conservative than Republicans in other northeastern states. Therefore it is projected that Cruz will win the 38 Maryland delegates.

Pennsylvania

Here is another place where Hoft made an incorrect assumption. While Pennsylvania is a winner-take-all state it is only so for 17, of the states 71 delegates. Megan Sweeney, the Pennsylvania GOP Communications Director, confirmed to Conservative Review, that the remaining 54 congressional district delegates are officially unbound to any candidate.

Hoft awarded Trump 71 of the delegates from Pennsylvania, only 17 are winner-take-all. The deadline to have your name appear on the ballot as a delegate has passed. Cruz has shown a stronger delegate strategy to date. Therefore, in Pennsylvania it can be assumed that many of the district delegates are in fact Cruz delegates. Assuming Trump won the statewide delegate and the district delegates were split 60 percent Cruz, 25 percent Trump and 15 percent Kasich the final delegate projection in Pennsylvania would be, Trump 31, Cruz 32, and Kasich eight.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island awards delegates proportionally with a 10 percent threshold. There are 13 statewide delegates apportioned this way, plus six congressional district delegates apportioned three each per congressional district. The top three finishers, above 10 percent, in each district are each apportioned one delegate. Hoft fails to give Kasich any delegates. Kasich would get a minimum of three just from the congressional districts.

Assuming a 45 percent Trump, 35 percent Cruz, and 20 percent Kasich finish, the delegate projections would be Trump eight, Cruz seven, and Kasich four.

On April 26th, it is projected that the days total delegate count would be Trump 70, Cruz 88, and Kasich 14.

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Continued:

Cruz would be eliminated, but Trump’s road is tough

So yes, at the end of April, Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from attaining 1237 delegates prior to the convention. The projected delegate count would be Trump 894, Cruz 683, and Kasich 164. There will be 502 delegates remaining to be apportioned. There will be another between 40 and 50 that have remained uncommitted publicly at this point.

Of the actual delegates to be awarded, Trump would need 68% of them going forward. This is where his math gets hard. Not only is it predicted that Cruz will win 190 delegates, to Trump’s 141 in April, but the calendar gets increasingly harder for Trump in May and beyond. By the end of May, Trump will be effectively eliminated from attaining 1237 delegates.

Trump’s campaign is trying to make a moral equivalence between calls for Kasich to drop out when mathematically eliminated and calling on Cruz to drop out. Over the weekend Trump even started to call for Kasich to drop out. The Trump campaign is laying the groundwork to call on Cruz to drop out post April 26, 2016. There is no moral equivalence though. Here’s why:

Under the current rules of the Republican Party, you need to have the majority of delegates from eight states for your name to be placed into nomination. If unchanged, that means only Cruz and Trump will have their name placed into nomination, on every ballot. The Trump campaign understands this, and is posturing to try and prevent a second ballot. Trump currently has met the eight state threshold. Cruz has a majority in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Utah, and North Dakota, for six states. It is projected that he will win majorities in Wisconsin and Colorado by the end of this week, for his eight state total.

Kasich will not get to the eight state threshold and his name will never be in nomination. That is the key difference. Kasich would not even qualify under the pre-2012 rules which required a plurality in five states.

Reince Priebus has gone on record stating there isn’t a likelihood that rule 40(b) would be changed.

The Clock Turns to May

As we look at May there are only five contests in the month with a total of 199 delegates. The states are Indiana (57), Nebraska (36), West Virginia (34), Oregon (28), and Washington (44).

Of those five states, Trump is expected to be prohibitively strong in only one of them, West Virginia. Trump has had his best performances in Appalachia, and the state of West Virginia is practically all Appalachian country.

Indiana 5/3

Indiana is a winner-take-all state by congressional district and statewide. Cruz has a strong chance at winning the statewide vote in the state and the 30 statewide delegates. There are nine congressional districts each awarding three delegates. Assuming Cruz wins 5 and Trump and Kasich each win two, given that this state is similar to Wisconsin, that would give a projection of Cruz 45 delegates, Trump six, and Kasich six.

The projected delegate total after May 3rd would be Trump 900, Cruz 728, and Kasich 170. Trump would need to win 76 percent of the remaining 445 delegates to get to 1237.

Nebraska and West Virginia 5/10

Nebraska is a winner-take-all state, and based on past demographic performance, Cruz should easily win this state and its 36 delegates. Trump should win the 34 delegates in West Virginia for the reasons previously stated.

The projected delegate total after May 10th would be Trump 934, Cruz 764, and Kasich 170. Trump would need 81 percent of the remaining 375 delegates to clinch 1237.

Oregon 5/17

The Oregon primary is proportional without a threshold. There is no current polling in Oregon. If Trump and Cruz each attained 35% and Kasich received the remaining 30 percent, the 28 delegates would be apportioned ten each for Trump and Cruz and eight for Kasich.

The projected delegate total after May 17th would be Trump 944, Cruz 774, and Kasich 178. Trump would need 84% of the remaining 347 delegates to clinch the nomination.

Washington 5/24

Washington has a proportional primary by district and statewide. The 14 statewide delegates are proportionally awarded based on the statewide vote with a 20% threshold. The congressional districts go two delegates to the first place vote getter, and one delegate for the runner up. If a candidate gets over 50 percent, he wins all three delegates.

Assuming a similar finish to Oregon above, Trump and Cruz would each get five statewide delegates and Kasich four. Cruz and Trump, under this scenario, would split the remaining 30 district delegates 15 a-piece. Trump would receive 20 delegates, Cruz 20 delegates, and Kasich four delegates.

The projected delegate total after May 24th would be Trump 964, Cruz 794, and Kasich 178. Trump would need to win 273 of the remaining 303 delegates, or 90 percent. This of course assumes that the unbound delegates are establishment types and part of the #NeverTrump movement.

June 7th is Tough for Trump

There are 303 delegates up for grab on June 7, 2016. They are in California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), New Mexico 24, and South Dakota (29).

The remaining 303 delegates are awarded on June 7th. Trump needs 273 of them. The states of Montana and South Dakota are winner-take-all for a total of 56 delegates. Cruz has won every demographically similar state to those two by large amounts this election season. He should win both of those states. If he does, that leaves 246 delegates on June 7th. Even if Trump won every single remaining delegate he could not get to 1237. Due to no chance of winning Montana and South Dakota, Trump is effectively eliminated at the end of May.

Trump’s campaign staffers have done this math. That is why they are increasingly laying the groundwork to call for Cruz to exit the race when he is eliminated from a majority. They know Cruz is the second ballot favorite, and that Kasich is a non-factor.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Flash, it's amazing that someone would go to the lengths they've gone to project all this! Of course, we both know these predictions are what they are--predictions--and given the nature of politics, things could change on a dime. Let's hope for starters that Cruz has a very good night tonight in Wisconsin!

 

[Blueraider_Mike]

I think if Cruz wins WI as expected things trend to a contested convention. I also think NY may be interesting. If Cruz and Kasich can keep him from 50% then it over for Trump.

Gonna be a crazy convention.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

I think if Cruz wins WI as expected things trend to a contested convention. I also think NY may be interesting. If Cruz and Kasich can keep him from 50% then it over for Trump.

Gonna be a crazy convention.

Mike, I'm still waiting for your response as to why you feel that Flash and I are "being played" as you said in a previous thread. Care to explain that?

 

[Blueraider_Mike]

I can't remember the exact context of using that phrase. My beef with you two is in the heat of the battle you guys started making enemies of folk who have been supporting conservative causes for years and years because by covering Trump or talking about - using your terms - they were now in the tank for him - I believe its a mis characterization and doesn't take much inspection to realize this isn't true. It is not the job of Rush, or Fox News or your local talk show host to give equal time to all candidates, its their job to cover interesting stories and people to drive viewership. The truth is Trump has been the most interesting story by far.

Secondly, drawing this line in the sand without truly understanding why the average Trump supporter was sick and tired of Washington and instead of full on attack of Trump, take a different course. Trump in himself is not the enemy. He is a symptom of something bigger. Something that Cruz wanted to tap in to and hasn't yet.

Look, we all agree on 99% of the issues. I am not a Trump supporter, but I do covet the support of the Trump voters and the R's cannot win without them - the key to leading is to get people to follow you. This divide and demonize is what the left does. I believe that many conservatives and republicans are too desperate and are reacting versus preparing.

You are free to disagree with my analysis.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Mike, I do understand the dynamics of the coverage Trump has received from the media as it relates to ratings/revenues, etc. They're in the business to make money (just like the rest of us). I get that.

My problem with Hannity, Rush, Coulter, O'Reilly, et al., is that they always seem to rationalize and "explain away" Trump's constant gaffes/irrational behavior--rather than take him to task by asking him tough questions.

Hannity, for example, has pretty much been the face of conservatism (along with Rush) for the past 15-20 years. However, during last night's townhall meeting where he interviewed Trump, he continually lobbed softball question after softball question. Further, Hannity has become agitated and defensive while interviewing others who question Trump.

Conversely, during Cruz's townhall meeting/interview last night with host Megyn Kelly, Cruz was asked about whether or not he'd had affairs, etc. Obvious double standard in play here.

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Both Hannity and O'Reilly are to Trump as MSNBC loons, like Rachel Maddow, are to Obama. No matter how much evidence you show them that is critical of Trump, they still want to defend him and deny what every rational person says about Trump. Last night on The Factor, O'Reilly tried to tell Krauthammer that Trump will change his demeanor once he wins the nomination. When he asked Krauthammer if there were enough angry white men to elect Trump and Krauthammer told him no, O'Reilly continued to be in denial trying to somehow convince Krauthammer and the viewers that Trump could actually win the general election despite having the highest unfavorable ratings as any political figure in modern history. This just proves the Trump cult is just as bad, if not worse, than the Obama cult.

 

[bigbadjohn45]

Both Hannity and O'Reilly are to Trump as MSNBC loons, like Rachel Maddow, are to Obama. No matter how much evidence you show them that is critical of Trump, they still want to defend him and deny what every rational person says about Trump. Last night on The Factor, O'Reilly tried to tell Krauthammer that Trump will change his demeanor once he wins the nomination. When he asked Krauthammer if there were enough angry white men to elect Trump and Krauthammer told him no, O'Reilly continued to be in denial trying to somehow convince Krauthammer and the viewers that Trump could actually win the general election despite having the highest unfavorable ratings as any political figure in modern history. This just proves the Trump cult is just as bad, if not worse, than the Obama cult.

View embedded media

O'Reilly and Hannity's allegiance to Trump is truly pathetic. I might could understand this with O'Reilly, but it saddens me to see Hannity sell his soul for Trump as he has.