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FOOTBALL ESPN FPI Predictions for each MTSU game...

Matt Dossett

All American
Staff
May 14, 2016
3,127
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Monmouth: 90.3 percent chance of victory

@ Virginia Tech: 7 percent chance of victory

@UTSA: 27.1 percent chance of victory

@ Charlotte: 40.9 percent chance of victory

Marshall: 34.9 percent chance of victory

@ Liberty: 20.5 percent chance of victory

@ UCONN: 78.7 percent chance of victory

Southern Miss: 54,1 percent chance of victory

@WKU: 40.7 percent chance of victory

Florida International: 62.8 percent chance of victory

ODU: 85 percent chance of victory

@ FAU: 23.2 percent chance of victory
 
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Southern Miss @ 30-1 is a steal. I don't think MT at 30-1 is a bad bet either. Tons of value there IMO. If my book posts these odds I'm definitely gonna put $50 on Southern Miss and MT.

UAB is the clear-cut favorite but the clear-cut favorite in these G5 conferences never seems to work out. They're gonna have a huge target on their back every game they play. It would be quite the impressive feat if they can win it all despite all that.

Speaking of UAB, it makes me sad that a program that was once literally dead, was revived and already is running laps around our program.

It makes me doubly sad that the Sun Belt is far superior to CUSA now and it's not even close. Who would have ever thought Coastal Carolina, Appy St., and Louisiana would become power house G5 programs?

Sometimes it just feels like it's not in the cards for us. Well, all the time actually.
 
Ok. The question I have is do you guys think we will be better this year? I feel good at QB and OL but that is it. I have no feel for anything else. Help these sore eyes and ears out.
 
Ok. The question I have is do you guys think we will be better this year? I feel good at QB and OL but that is it. I have no feel for anything else. Help these sore eyes and ears out.
Why do you feel good at QB? Still shaky at the backup position, Hockman stats are no better than O'hara. I can see the OL on paper being better, but won't know until live action.
 
Southern Miss @ 30-1 is a steal. I don't think MT at 30-1 is a bad bet either. Tons of value there IMO. If my book posts these odds I'm definitely gonna put $50 on Southern Miss and MT.

UAB is the clear-cut favorite but the clear-cut favorite in these G5 conferences never seems to work out. They're gonna have a huge target on their back every game they play. It would be quite the impressive feat if they can win it all despite all that.

Speaking of UAB, it makes me sad that a program that was once literally dead, was revived and already is running laps around our program.

It makes me doubly sad that the Sun Belt is far superior to CUSA now and it's not even close. Who would have ever thought Coastal Carolina, Appy St., and Louisiana would become power house G5 programs?

Sometimes it just feels like it's not in the cards for us. Well, all the time actually.
This is the one area you can actually get an advantage is G5 bets. Both basketball and football.

Of course the Sun Belt is better if its a football decision and Massaro made it...it's wrong.
 
So 5-7. Im getting a bit optimistic and thinking they upset someone to go 6-6 and get throttled in the Buc-Ees Gopher Bowl sponsored by Swift Logistics.
 
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Ok. The question I have is do you guys think we will be better this year? I feel good at QB and OL but that is it. I have no feel for anything else. Help these sore eyes and ears out.

Defense will be improved too. We have the best safety duo in G5 football + an All American FCS back-up safety in Tra Fluellen. Our DB's are very good too especially Quincy Riley. I think Jalen Jackson makes a name for himself this year too. He is so shifty and quick back there. Up front we are younger but I guarantee visibly better than last year if we stay healthy. Defense is going to be improved, possibly significantly.

Offensively we have so much talent and depth at WR it feels criminal. I'm hoping Dearmon does work in more 4 receiver sets even though I know he likes the 3 WR with 1 TE formations. We don't really have any stand out TE's at the moment which is mildly concerning, but I'm sure he will find a way to adjust. We can be great offensively if Hockman is a player for us and stays healthy. There is a big drop off at the QB position if Hockman goes down.

Special teams is probably my biggest concern. At PK it looks like Alex Usry and Zeke Rankin will battle it out but they're both unknown and unproven commodities at this point. Kyle Ulbrich is back for us and so I will assume he's the starting punter. He's about average across CUSA, maybe slightly above average. Special teams over the last 2 years just hasn't been very good for us though. Looking at Phil Steele's STR (Special Teams Rankings) we were #122 in 2019 and #88 in 2020. Special teams is so often overlooked. If you look at the top teams in conference, you see just how important special teams is. It's no coincidence they have Top 50 units. Looking at last years numbers, UAB was #42, UTSA #57, Marshall #38, even WKU #31. UTSA returns probably the best PK/Punter duo in G5. When you've got two pretty evenly matched teams (which is what you see in most CUSA conference games), special teams is often the deciding factor. We have to make significant improvements in the special teams department if we have any desire to be champions. We are not even close to being good enough to overcome missed FG's, poor punts, crappy kick-off coverage, etc.

Over the last 6 years our special teams has only broke the Top 50 once. Every other year we were bottom 1/3rd. Then you look at a team like Marshall over the last 6 years, and they've only been in the bottom 1/3rd once. They've been in the top 50 4 of the last 6 years. We desperately need someone with some knowledge and passion to take over and run our special teams unit. Over the last 6 years MT has had some of the worst special teams in the conference, if not THE worst. Teams with some of the worst special teams rankings in CUSA along with MT are: UTEP, Rice, Charlotte. Do these teams win a lot of games?

Special teams must improve, significantly.
 
Defense will be improved too. We have the best safety duo in G5 football + an All American FCS back-up safety in Tra Fluellen. Our DB's are very good too especially Quincy Riley. I think Jalen Jackson makes a name for himself this year too. He is so shifty and quick back there. Up front we are younger but I guarantee visibly better than last year if we stay healthy. Defense is going to be improved, possibly significantly.

Offensively we have so much talent and depth at WR it feels criminal. I'm hoping Dearmon does work in more 4 receiver sets even though I know he likes the 3 WR with 1 TE formations. We don't really have any stand out TE's at the moment which is mildly concerning, but I'm sure he will find a way to adjust. We can be great offensively if Hockman is a player for us and stays healthy. There is a big drop off at the QB position if Hockman goes down.

Special teams is probably my biggest concern. At PK it looks like Alex Usry and Zeke Rankin will battle it out but they're both unknown and unproven commodities at this point. Kyle Ulbrich is back for us and so I will assume he's the starting punter. He's about average across CUSA, maybe slightly above average. Special teams over the last 2 years just hasn't been very good for us though. Looking at Phil Steele's STR (Special Teams Rankings) we were #122 in 2019 and #88 in 2020. Special teams is so often overlooked. If you look at the top teams in conference, you see just how important special teams is. It's no coincidence they have Top 50 units. Looking at last years numbers, UAB was #42, UTSA #57, Marshall #38, even WKU #31. UTSA returns probably the best PK/Punter duo in G5. When you've got two pretty evenly matched teams (which is what you see in most CUSA conference games), special teams is often the deciding factor. We have to make significant improvements in the special teams department if we have any desire to be champions. We are not even close to being good enough to overcome missed FG's, poor punts, crappy kick-off coverage, etc.

Over the last 6 years our special teams has only broke the Top 50 once. Every other year we were bottom 1/3rd. Then you look at a team like Marshall over the last 6 years, and they've only been in the bottom 1/3rd once. They've been in the top 50 4 of the last 6 years. We desperately need someone with some knowledge and passion to take over and run our special teams unit. Over the last 6 years MT has had some of the worst special teams in the conference, if not THE worst. Teams with some of the worst special teams rankings in CUSA along with MT are: UTEP, Rice, Charlotte. Do these teams win a lot of games?

Special teams must improve, significantly.

Dang Wiley. You are way more optimistic than I am. Thanks for the hope.
 
Dang Wiley. You are way more optimistic than I am. Thanks for the hope.


I was more optimistic 2-3 months ago. Getting Phil Steele's magazine really tempered my expectations. I went from thinking 8-9 wins to 6 or 7, assuming Hockman is a player for us and remains healthy.

Our football team is going to be vastly improved this year. They will be a much better team across the board, outside maybe special teams.

Here's the problem. Everyone else took advantage of the covid waivers and new transfer rules too, so our opponents will be much better too outside of maybe ODU &Uconn.

If you go and read my predictions thread I discuss each and every game and talk what we'll be up against. UTSA returns nearly every player on their roster, WKU brought in basically all transfers including NFL prospect QB Bailey Zappe. FAU returns a ton of talent + some big time QB transfers. And so on and so forth.

So yes, we will be better, but everyone else got better too.
 
I was more optimistic 2-3 months ago. Getting Phil Steele's magazine really tempered my expectations. I went from thinking 8-9 wins to 6 or 7, assuming Hockman is a player for us and remains healthy.

Our football team is going to be vastly improved this year. They will be a much better team across the board, outside maybe special teams.

Here's the problem. Everyone else took advantage of the covid waivers and new transfer rules too, so our opponents will be much better too outside of maybe ODU &Uconn.

If you go and read my predictions thread I discuss each and every game and talk what we'll be up against. UTSA returns nearly every player on their roster, WKU brought in basically all transfers including NFL prospect QB Bailey Zappe. FAU returns a ton of talent + some big time QB transfers. And so on and so forth.

So yes, we will be better, but everyone else got better too.
I told you that my guy. They will be better, but everyone else will as well.
 
I told you that my guy. They will be better, but everyone else will as well.
This.

And honestly, I still don’t have much confidence in this staff or the Head Coach. Even the two newest hires came from bad losing programs last year. Like I’ve stated earlier, I’ve seen nothing other than the same old preseason hype.
 
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