Poll: Utah would vote for a Democrat for president over Trump

[nashvillegoldenflash]

SALT LAKE CITY — If Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party's nominee, Utahns would vote for a Democrat for president in November for the first time in more than 50 years, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.

"I believe Donald Trump could lose Utah. If you lose Utah as a Republican, there is no hope," said former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, a top campaign adviser to the GOP's 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney.

The poll found that may well be true. Utah voters said they would reject Trump, the GOP frontrunner, whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is the Democratic candidate on the general election ballot.

While Clinton was only slightly ahead of Trump — 38 percent to 36 percent — Sanders, a self-declared Democratic socialist, holds a substantial lead — 48 percent to 37 percent over the billionaire businessman and reality TV star among likely Utah voters.

"Wow. Wow. That's surprising," said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. "Any matchup in which Democrats are competitive in the state of Utah is shocking."

Also surprising is the number of Utahns who said they wouldn't vote if Trump were on the ballot. Sixteen percent said they'd skip the election if Trump and Clinton were their ballot choices, while 9 percent said they wouldn't vote if it was a Trump-Sanders matchup.

Both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich would beat either Democratic candidate in Utah, the poll found. Sanders came closest against Cruz, with 39 percent of Utahns backing Sanders to 53 percent for Cruz.






The Democratic candidates fare even better against Trump among Utah's many unaffiliated voters. Clinton would win Utah by 17 points, the poll found, while Sanders would see a 36-point victory if the election were held today. The margin of error for unaffiliated voters is nearly 7 percent.

The poll was conducted for the Desert News and KSL on March 8-15 by Dan Jones & Associates of 500 registered voters statewide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percent, so the Clinton-Trump results fall within that margin.

Utah hasn't voted for a Democratic candidate for president in a general election since then-President Lyndon Johnson was running against Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964.

But Karpowitz said Republicans better be paying attention to Trump's lack of support in a state long considered a GOP stronghold if they expect to reclaim the White House this year.

"I know it is early and these things can change," Karpowitz said. "But the fact that a Donald Trump matchup with either Clinton or Sanders is a competitive race is a canary in a coal mine for Republicans."

The BYU political science professor said the poll makes it clear that if the GOP nominates Trump, "they may have trouble, serious trouble, in reliably Republican states like Utah" let alone the rest of the country.

https://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=481&sid=38970451

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

Speaking before one of his smallest crowds this campaign season, Donald Trump declared Friday night at a rally in Salt Lake City that he loves the Mormons.

The feeling does not appear to be mutual.

So far in 2016, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints have proven to be one of the most stubbornly anti-Trump constituencies in the Republican Party — a dynamic that will likely manifest itself in Utah’s presidential caucuses next week.

National polling data focused on Mormons voters is hard to come by, but the election results speak for themselves. Even as Trump has steamrolled his way through the GOP primaries, he has repeatedly been trounced in places with large LDS populations.

In Wyoming, the third-most heavily Mormon state in the country, Trump was able to muster just 70 votes in the low-turnout Republican caucuses there — losing to Ted Cruz by a whopping 59 points.

In Idaho, the country’s second most Mormon state, Trump lost the primary by 18 points.

And in the Mormon mecca of Utah, the most recent primary poll has Trump in third place — more than 40 points behind Cruz, and 18 points behind Kasich.

The pattern holds at the county level, as well. As New York Times data journalist Nate Cohn illustrated, the larger the proportion of Mormons in a given county, the worse Trump has generally performed in the primary contest there.

This dynamic was perhaps most vividly demonstrated earlier this month in the deeply conservative Madison County — home to Brigham Young University-Idaho, and a population that’s estimated to be upward of 95% Mormon. Cruz won the county with 57% of the vote; Rubio came in second with 27%. Trump won a total of 539 votes — less than 8% of the county electorate, and just barely enough to squeak by fourth-place Kasich.

If Trump is wiped out in Tuesday’s Utah caucuses as expected, many will no doubt credit Mitt Romney, who has spent recent weeks on a high-profile crusade to stop the billionaire. But LDS voters’ skepticism of the billionaire — which, polls suggest, predates Romney’s emergence as an anti-Trump champion — is rooted more deeply in Mormon culture and politics.

That’s because while Mormons make up the most reliably Republican religious group in the country, they differ from the party’s base in key ways that work against Trump.

On immigration, for example, the hard-line proposals that have rallied Trump’s fans — like building a massive wall along the country’s southern border to keep immigrants out — are considerably less likely to fire up conservative Latter-day Saints. The LDS Church has spent years lobbying for “compassionate” immigration reform. In 2011, church leaders offered a full-throated endorsement of “the Utah Compact,” a state legislative initiative that discouraged deporting otherwise law-abiding undocumented immigrants, and offered a path to residency for families that would be separated by deportation.

These pro-immigrant attitudes are common among rank-and-file believers, many of whom have served missions in Latin-American countries. Mormons are more than twice as likely as evangelicals to say they support “more immigration” to the United States, according to Notre Dame political scientist David Campbell. And a 2012 Pew survey found that Mormons were more likely to say immigrants “strengthen” the country than they were to call immigrants an overall “burden.” When Romney ran for president in 2012 on a restrictionist immigration platform, his views were widelynoted in LDS circles for being at odds with his church.

Many Mormon voters are similarly wary of another Trump campaign hallmark: Muslim-bashing.

Last year, when the billionaire proposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States in the wake of the San Bernardino terrorist attack, Trump became the only candidate in either party this election cycle to elicit a response from LDS church leadership.

“The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is neutral in regard to party politics and election campaigns. However, it is not neutral in relation to religious freedom,” the statement read, before proceeding to quote the faith’s 19th-century founder, Joseph Smith, saying he would “die in defending the rights of … any other denomination who may be unpopular and too weak to defend themselves.” (In case the message wasn’t clear enough, the church-owned Deseret News went on to publish a story highlighting the growing alliance and solidarity between Mormon and Muslim leaders.)

During last year’s debate over the potential national security threat posed by Syrian refugees coming to the United State, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert was the only Republican governor in the country to say refugees were welcome in his state.

Trump is off-putting to Mormons for more predictable reasons as well. His blatant religious illiteracy, his penchant for onstage cursing, his habit of flinging crude insults at women, his less-than-virtuous personal life, and widely chronicled marital failures — all of this is anathema to the wholesome, family-first lifestyle that Mormonism promotes. And demographically speaking, Mormons tend to reside outside Trump’s base of support anyway. They have higher-than-average education levels, whereas Trump does best among voters without any college education; they are more likely to be weekly churchgoers, while Trump performs better with Christians who attend services infrequently.

LDS voters are not a political monolith — just ask BYU’s Bernie Sanders fan club — and Trump will no doubt be cheered on by a noisy minority of supporters in the Beehive State Tuesday. But it’s difficult to imagine a Republican presidential nominee more naturally repellant to Mormons than The Donald.

In fact, a poll released Saturday by Y2 Analytics asked likely Republican caucus-goers in Utah how they would vote in the general election if Trump won the GOP nomination. Only 29% of these die-hard Republicans said they would pull the lever for Trump; 25% said they would write in another candidate, 15% said they would vote third-party, 8% said they would not cast a vote for president at all, and 7% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

If anti-Trump Republicans are serious about backing a third-party ticket in the general election, they would do well to schedule some campaign stops in Provo.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppin...-dont-like-donald-trump-heres-why#.utzBqb7yky

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

For you Trump supporters who say losing Utah is not a big deal because Trump would win New York, think again. The new Emerson College poll for New York shows in the general election Hillary and Bernie would defeat Trump by 19 points and 17 points respectively.

 

[nashvillegoldenflash]

For several months now, Donald Trump and his supporters have claimed that they would put states in play for the GOP that have never been in play before. I have repeatedly been dismissive of their claims. But new polling shows that, in fact, Trump and his supporters are right. Donald Trump will put states in play for the GOP that have never been in play before.

Utah, the most Republican of all the Republican states, would go to Hillary Clinton according to new polling. If Trump is the nominee, the state that has always voted for a Republican Presidential nominee will suddenly go Democrat.

Trump and his supporters are right! They do put states in play that have never been put in play before.

By the way, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all still go to Hillary, according to the polling.

http://theresurgent.com/i-owe-donald-trump-and-his-supporters-an-apology/

 

[bigbadjohn45]

For several months now, Donald Trump and his supporters have claimed that they would put states in play for the GOP that have never been in play before. I have repeatedly been dismissive of their claims. But new polling shows that, in fact, Trump and his supporters are right. Donald Trump will put states in play for the GOP that have never been in play before.

Utah, the most Republican of all the Republican states, would go to Hillary Clinton according to new polling. If Trump is the nominee, the state that has always voted for a Republican Presidential nominee will suddenly go Democrat.

Trump and his supporters are right! They do put states in play that have never been put in play before.

By the way, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all still go to Hillary, according to the polling.

http://theresurgent.com/i-owe-donald-trump-and-his-supporters-an-apology/

Exactly right. The polling has consistently shown Trump losing to Hillary head-to-head, whereas Cruz has consistently beaten her. It is indeed a false narrative to claim Trump "flips" many traditionally "blue" states to the GOP column....