After obtaining a copy of Phil Steele's new magazine and thoroughly reviewing it I wanted to discuss our upcoming season a bit further. College football is fast approaching with a 1pm kickoff on August 28th featuring Nebraska (-8.5) @ Illinois. I love Illinois in that one, by the way. This will be a two part post. First will be 6 games then I'll discuss the other 6 at a later time.
Let's jump right to it.
Middle Tennessee hosting Monmouth - No line has been posted yet but I am expecting something between 7 and 10 points here. Monmouth is a very legit FCS program that has won their conference two years in a row. They have an explosive offense averaging over 40 points per game last season. We are going to find out really fast if our D is improved or not. This team played a spring season going 3-1 and losing to eventual FCS National Champion Sam Houston State by 6 points, 21-15. They are the #12 ranked preseason FCS team entering this fall per Athlon sports. It's hard to find a ton of info on their program coming into this fall but I believe they return nearly every starter on both sides of the ball. This game is going to be an absolute war and our players better be prepared. What concerns me is Stockstill teams have traditionally played very poorly early in the season. I honestly cannot tell you the last time I watched our Blue Raiders play a Week 1 game and came away impressed. This is an honest coin flip in my eyes. I'm going to go with the home team here simply because we should win, but this is absolutely a game that we can lose as Monmouth will be rolling in here and laying it all on the line for an upset bid. If MT brings it's usual asleep-at-the-wheel Week 1 performance that we've been accustomed to in the past, Monmouth wins this game. I'm hopeful and optimistic that doesn't happen this time. Dearmon and Hockman will find a way to win as Shafer's defense pulls just enough stops to eek this one out. This is going to be a super exciting game to watch despite this being an FCS opponent. If you live in Murfreesboro or the surrounding areas and are debating on making our Week 1 game, you should go. It's gonna be a good one.
Win
MT 42
Monmouth 36
Middle Tennessee @ Virginia Tech - This is a tough game to read because I believe a lot will depend on how we fare in Week 1. Since I predicted a W I'm going to assume MT will be rolling in here with a bit of confidence. Virginia Tech gets an extended week here as they will play North Carolina on a Friday the previous week, so they get 1 extra day to prepare. They return 8 players on offense and 7 on defense which normally would be a lot of returning starters, but is actually fewer than most teams due to covid waivers. By comparison, MT returns 9 players on offense and 10 on defense. Virginia Tech will likely start Burmeister at QB who is an Oregon transfer and a true dual threat. Much like MT at the QB position, it will be an enigma early in the season as Burmeister didn't play much last year after being benched for Hendon Hooker who finished the year out and is now gone. This is actually a winnable game as Va. Tech has shown to be a vulnerable program to G5 programs. Liberty beat them last year, Furman nearly beat them in 2019, and Old Dominion ran wild on them in 2018. I think we'll at least get a competitive first half but ultimately it's too tough to predict a W here for our Blue Raiders.
Loss
MT 24
VT 40
Middle Tennessee @ UTSA - UTSA has become somewhat of a pre-season darling as they return tons of talent from last year's mildly successful squad. Phil has UTSA picked second in the West behind only league primadonna UAB. UTSA returns 21 total starters which is just crazy but you will see is a reoccuring theme for most teams this year due to covid waivers. 10 return on offense and 11 on defense. Key weapons Frank Harris (QB) and Sincere McCormick (RB) will form one of the most potent QB/RB duo's in the conference. Defensively they are a big, attacking defense with more talent than meets the eye. LB Harmanson will be playing on Sundays without a doubt and will lead UTSA's defense as one of the best in the league in my opinion. What swings this game for me, unfortunately, will be special teams. UTSA returns K Duplessis (1st team CUSA) and one of the best punters in the country in Lucas Dean. I believe this will be a tooth & nail, hard fought scrappy game. This will be both teams first conference game and goes down to the wire. It's 100% a swing game and really could go either way in my opinion. This will be a great game to watch between two very evenly matched teams, but home field advantage will tip the scales just enough. For some reason we are playing in San Antonio 2 years in a row which is BS. UTSA kicks the winning field goal as time expires, delivering MT football and it's fans a major gut punch.
Loss
MT 27
UTSA 29
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte - This becomes a must-win game after the debacle in San Antonio. Our game with Charlotte will be played on a Friday night, so look for national TV to be in the picture. Will Healy returns a paltry 13 starters, 8 on offense and 5 on defense. Notably, Chris Reynolds Jr is back at QB so they will have some stability at QB. RB appears to be a free-for-all but Iowa State transfer Shadrick Byrd likely has the upper hand to start. We had previously beaten Charlotte 4 years in a row until they finally beat us in 2019 for their first win over MT football. I think that victory will be short lived as I do have the Blue Raiders winning this one and looking good doing so. I foresee a coming out party for our offense here as Charlotte looks a little small upfront. I think Dearmon gets them on tilt with the run/pass game and the Blue Raiders pile up the points here. MT returns home here 1-1 in the conference in preparation for a huge date with Marshall at home.
Win
MT 38
Charlotte 27
Middle Tennessee hosting Marshall - MT is 6-1 straight up in CUSA home openers. We do tend to play well for our first home conference game of the season, and we traditionally also play well when hosting Marshall. They return 15 total starters, 7 on offense and 8 on defense. Grant Wells is back at QB after tearing us a new a-hole last year. Marshall traditionally is very difficult to run the ball on and this year their defensive line will be the strength of their defense. They return 3 starters + Penn St. transfer Shane Simmons who will be hell up front to handle. Marshall is as always loaded with talent and looking to make a push for the CUSA crown. Big X factor here is new head coach Charles Huff who replaced Doc Holliday after he was railroaded out of town. Marshall gets Appy St. on a Thursday the week prior to our game so they will have extra time to prep for MT here. We all know what our games with Marshall like are at home. Usually one possession, back and forth, down to the knitty gritty. Whichever team makes the fewest mistakes will win here. This is yet again another coin flip as CUSA really does have some great parity throughout the league. I'm hopeful we will be ready to roll after winning @ Charlotte, and I'm going to tip this game our way because of home field, but this could just as easily be a loss as a win. Redshirt Freshman QB Grant Wells makes 1 too many mistakes for his team to overcome.
Win
MT 35
Marshall 24
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty - What a fun match up. In theory this should be a fun, close game that MT should eek out. But ever since Liberty brought in Hugh Freeze they have resembled more of an SEC team than a G5 program. This year will be no different. Liberty returns dark horse Heisman contender Malik Willis Jr at QB (Auburn transfer). Willis ran for a Liberty QB record 944 yards last season along with 14 rushing TD's, and he didn't even play every game due to injury! He boasted a 20-6 TD/INT ratio through the air with 64.2% completion percentage. He is truly a complete dual threat QB that forces you to cover every inch of the field. I do not envy Shafer's job and game plan for this one. This will be the ultimate test for our defense and our athletic secondary and linebackers. As a team Liberty returns 20 total starters including all 11 starters back on their offense which accounted for 38.1 points per game and 482 yards per game last year. Hugh Freeze has done a remarkable job at Liberty and will be considered as a Coach of the Year candidate after the 2021 season and surely off to a better gig. Liberty has a legit chance at going undefeated this year with their toughest games being @ Ole Miss and @ UAB. As much as I would love to see our Blue Raiders win here, I just can't do it. I'm hopeful that we can be this year's Liberty with Hockman and Amir Rasul having breakout years, but that's more the homer in me talking and wishing vs. what's likely to happen. I do think this will be closer than most expect it.
Loss
MT 37
Liberty 45
To be continued....
Let's jump right to it.
Middle Tennessee hosting Monmouth - No line has been posted yet but I am expecting something between 7 and 10 points here. Monmouth is a very legit FCS program that has won their conference two years in a row. They have an explosive offense averaging over 40 points per game last season. We are going to find out really fast if our D is improved or not. This team played a spring season going 3-1 and losing to eventual FCS National Champion Sam Houston State by 6 points, 21-15. They are the #12 ranked preseason FCS team entering this fall per Athlon sports. It's hard to find a ton of info on their program coming into this fall but I believe they return nearly every starter on both sides of the ball. This game is going to be an absolute war and our players better be prepared. What concerns me is Stockstill teams have traditionally played very poorly early in the season. I honestly cannot tell you the last time I watched our Blue Raiders play a Week 1 game and came away impressed. This is an honest coin flip in my eyes. I'm going to go with the home team here simply because we should win, but this is absolutely a game that we can lose as Monmouth will be rolling in here and laying it all on the line for an upset bid. If MT brings it's usual asleep-at-the-wheel Week 1 performance that we've been accustomed to in the past, Monmouth wins this game. I'm hopeful and optimistic that doesn't happen this time. Dearmon and Hockman will find a way to win as Shafer's defense pulls just enough stops to eek this one out. This is going to be a super exciting game to watch despite this being an FCS opponent. If you live in Murfreesboro or the surrounding areas and are debating on making our Week 1 game, you should go. It's gonna be a good one.
Win
MT 42
Monmouth 36
Middle Tennessee @ Virginia Tech - This is a tough game to read because I believe a lot will depend on how we fare in Week 1. Since I predicted a W I'm going to assume MT will be rolling in here with a bit of confidence. Virginia Tech gets an extended week here as they will play North Carolina on a Friday the previous week, so they get 1 extra day to prepare. They return 8 players on offense and 7 on defense which normally would be a lot of returning starters, but is actually fewer than most teams due to covid waivers. By comparison, MT returns 9 players on offense and 10 on defense. Virginia Tech will likely start Burmeister at QB who is an Oregon transfer and a true dual threat. Much like MT at the QB position, it will be an enigma early in the season as Burmeister didn't play much last year after being benched for Hendon Hooker who finished the year out and is now gone. This is actually a winnable game as Va. Tech has shown to be a vulnerable program to G5 programs. Liberty beat them last year, Furman nearly beat them in 2019, and Old Dominion ran wild on them in 2018. I think we'll at least get a competitive first half but ultimately it's too tough to predict a W here for our Blue Raiders.
Loss
MT 24
VT 40
Middle Tennessee @ UTSA - UTSA has become somewhat of a pre-season darling as they return tons of talent from last year's mildly successful squad. Phil has UTSA picked second in the West behind only league primadonna UAB. UTSA returns 21 total starters which is just crazy but you will see is a reoccuring theme for most teams this year due to covid waivers. 10 return on offense and 11 on defense. Key weapons Frank Harris (QB) and Sincere McCormick (RB) will form one of the most potent QB/RB duo's in the conference. Defensively they are a big, attacking defense with more talent than meets the eye. LB Harmanson will be playing on Sundays without a doubt and will lead UTSA's defense as one of the best in the league in my opinion. What swings this game for me, unfortunately, will be special teams. UTSA returns K Duplessis (1st team CUSA) and one of the best punters in the country in Lucas Dean. I believe this will be a tooth & nail, hard fought scrappy game. This will be both teams first conference game and goes down to the wire. It's 100% a swing game and really could go either way in my opinion. This will be a great game to watch between two very evenly matched teams, but home field advantage will tip the scales just enough. For some reason we are playing in San Antonio 2 years in a row which is BS. UTSA kicks the winning field goal as time expires, delivering MT football and it's fans a major gut punch.
Loss
MT 27
UTSA 29
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte - This becomes a must-win game after the debacle in San Antonio. Our game with Charlotte will be played on a Friday night, so look for national TV to be in the picture. Will Healy returns a paltry 13 starters, 8 on offense and 5 on defense. Notably, Chris Reynolds Jr is back at QB so they will have some stability at QB. RB appears to be a free-for-all but Iowa State transfer Shadrick Byrd likely has the upper hand to start. We had previously beaten Charlotte 4 years in a row until they finally beat us in 2019 for their first win over MT football. I think that victory will be short lived as I do have the Blue Raiders winning this one and looking good doing so. I foresee a coming out party for our offense here as Charlotte looks a little small upfront. I think Dearmon gets them on tilt with the run/pass game and the Blue Raiders pile up the points here. MT returns home here 1-1 in the conference in preparation for a huge date with Marshall at home.
Win
MT 38
Charlotte 27
Middle Tennessee hosting Marshall - MT is 6-1 straight up in CUSA home openers. We do tend to play well for our first home conference game of the season, and we traditionally also play well when hosting Marshall. They return 15 total starters, 7 on offense and 8 on defense. Grant Wells is back at QB after tearing us a new a-hole last year. Marshall traditionally is very difficult to run the ball on and this year their defensive line will be the strength of their defense. They return 3 starters + Penn St. transfer Shane Simmons who will be hell up front to handle. Marshall is as always loaded with talent and looking to make a push for the CUSA crown. Big X factor here is new head coach Charles Huff who replaced Doc Holliday after he was railroaded out of town. Marshall gets Appy St. on a Thursday the week prior to our game so they will have extra time to prep for MT here. We all know what our games with Marshall like are at home. Usually one possession, back and forth, down to the knitty gritty. Whichever team makes the fewest mistakes will win here. This is yet again another coin flip as CUSA really does have some great parity throughout the league. I'm hopeful we will be ready to roll after winning @ Charlotte, and I'm going to tip this game our way because of home field, but this could just as easily be a loss as a win. Redshirt Freshman QB Grant Wells makes 1 too many mistakes for his team to overcome.
Win
MT 35
Marshall 24
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty - What a fun match up. In theory this should be a fun, close game that MT should eek out. But ever since Liberty brought in Hugh Freeze they have resembled more of an SEC team than a G5 program. This year will be no different. Liberty returns dark horse Heisman contender Malik Willis Jr at QB (Auburn transfer). Willis ran for a Liberty QB record 944 yards last season along with 14 rushing TD's, and he didn't even play every game due to injury! He boasted a 20-6 TD/INT ratio through the air with 64.2% completion percentage. He is truly a complete dual threat QB that forces you to cover every inch of the field. I do not envy Shafer's job and game plan for this one. This will be the ultimate test for our defense and our athletic secondary and linebackers. As a team Liberty returns 20 total starters including all 11 starters back on their offense which accounted for 38.1 points per game and 482 yards per game last year. Hugh Freeze has done a remarkable job at Liberty and will be considered as a Coach of the Year candidate after the 2021 season and surely off to a better gig. Liberty has a legit chance at going undefeated this year with their toughest games being @ Ole Miss and @ UAB. As much as I would love to see our Blue Raiders win here, I just can't do it. I'm hopeful that we can be this year's Liberty with Hockman and Amir Rasul having breakout years, but that's more the homer in me talking and wishing vs. what's likely to happen. I do think this will be closer than most expect it.
Loss
MT 37
Liberty 45
To be continued....
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