My thoughts on the season: C-USA, Sun Belt, OVC are three conferences MT has been a member of in my lifetime. What do they all have in common? All are historically one-bid leagues in men's basketball despite "artificial perceptions" that one conference is clearly better than others. They are really not. At larges are granted in very unusual and rare circumstances. A team's season in these conferences is ultimately judged on two factors: Can said team win regular season title for postseason play? and Can said team win conference tournament and auto NCAA bid? Really comes down to winning three games in three days (unless conference has the lifesaver double bye).
Today, Marshall and Southern Miss lost their conference Quarterfinals game having 24 and 25 wins, respectively. Morehead State lost yesterday at 21 wins. Observations note Southern Miss to NIT (regular season guarantee), but Marshall and Morehead being done short of the CBI or The Basketball Classic or "pay to play" if you will. Florida Atlantic barely won 76-72 tonight at La Tech to close out regular season making them 28-3 to date. They are probably in, should be solidly in, but not ranked today. Realistically, they needed that win to stay afloat in "at large" conversation. Maybe they will be back at 24 or 25 in the polls come Monday. Maybe FAU can afford an opening round C-USA loss next week and open the door for a second C-USA team to enhance revenue sharing (and possibly allowing MT to be the one getting there). But, I wouldn't bank on it given history of what happened to MT in Kermit's last season being ranked and then losing. Conversely, look at Tennessee taking another loss to Auburn-no one is challenging their NCAA tournament selection, in fact they may still keep their ranking well inside the top 25. Vanderbilt may even work into the conversation if they make a deep SEC tournament run and be able to steal a bid on a tight bubble. Margins for error in each of the three aforementioned leagues are practically at zero tolerance if the NCAA's are the desired expectation and standard to achieve. The issue of fairness between P5 and "mid major" in getting multiple bids is another subject for another day.
I say this to emphasize conference tournament means everything when judging success or failure of a season. That's why OVC Tournament almost always is very competitive and very close games because players know the road always ends abruptly if they lose no matter what their season record may be. Psychology and mental toughness are imperative more so than physicality and skill. Little things like missed free throws, extra passes leading to more efficient scoring opportunities/better looks, quickness in steps to force turnovers. Next thing one knows is game gets from a 2,3,4 point margin out to 9,10,11,13, etc. and players have to learn the smarter decisions and have premium effort. Likewise, coaches must diligently focus on teaching players how to think situations and anticipate their best opportunities. How many chances do teams get in competing and winning for a championship? Well for SEMO its going back to "NCAA dance" after 23 years, while Tenn. Tech is at year 60 without a date to the dance. That's why bids means a lot: it brings exposure, alumni back into the fold, and instills excellence and excitement for the team, coaches, and families. One Shining Moment!
Skill sets for those in the game rotation are similar enough this time of year...or should be if team is remotely competitive. I don't see MT mens' team being consistent enough to make a championship happen this year. We're a good 20 to 25-minute team but not 35 and 40. Hopefully we get hot enough and/or a few breaks to make noise and surprise in Texas. We're more likely to win one game and bow out the next. This past road trip was obviously disappointing.
We'll see. It's always fun when tournament week starts. Go Blue Raiders!
