I’m not going to call out anyone specifically, but I’ve seen it multiple times people say AAC or SBC chances in the future are virtually zero. What do you all base this on? It amazes me that when I suggest that funds distributed from forfeited revenue by leaving programs is make believe but then it’s gospel that the MAC is the last ever opportunity. Fascinating. I mean really y’all??
MWC has strengthened. They will probably add again. More importantly, P5 moves aren’t done. Why would anyone think only the SEC is going to do something in this decade?? The ACC and Big 10 are right now at this moment pondering what they can do to close a gap that just got massive. They have to do something. The SEC which was already better just created separation by orders of magnitude. They won’t be able to do nothing.
My guess is the Big 10 is going to weigh options between schools like Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado, and Georgia Tech. Why these schools? They are the only institutions that can bring either AAU membership, a new media market, or both. They won’t be able to match SEC football but could steal media market share and enhance their basketball profile even more. Now that C-USA is going to survive staying until whatever happens next is our best course of action. It is certainly not squandering our future options and throwing them in the trash by signing a lengthy GOR agreement, because it is just an asinine decisions to pay money to go to a conference that isn’t going to be any better in any pecking order vs staying and receiving the benefits from the leaving schools forfeited revenues for two years. If college athletics is a business we really are operating like the Kmart of college sports. But whatever. Every fact I’ve offered has been ignored (like the false pretense that the MAC travel will be better) so I doubt my instincts on these issues will be listened to either.
IMHO, I don’t believe there are that many moves coming in the near future.
There is little appetite for B10 expansion. That’s a football driven league and there is little football value in Iowa State (they already have Iowa), Kansas, etc. They're not going to expand because the SEC did - they have to have programs of value - it has to make the pie bigger. The ACC has a near ironclad GoR, so no one is leaving them, and they’re not expanding because of ND.
The SEC didn't expand because it has some evil plan to dominate college football and hoard all the good programs. They're not going to go get Clemson or FSU. I know internet goobers and twitter-ers were all about those rumors - but the SEC saw 2 programs that enhanced it's brand and increased the size of the pie - pretty much the only 2 programs that could possibly do so, so they jumped.
TV dollars are driving this, but there's a finite # of prime TV slots to fill. Once you have them filled, adding more teams just shunts people down the totem pole until you get to ESPN THE OCHO or whatever. There's diminishing returns to ever expanding your conference.
I think the B12 will pick up Boise and Memphis when Texas and OU leave, and the AAC will backfill with someone. Maybe that sets off a domino that reaches us.
But then, I don’t believe we’re anywhere close to being a desirable program in the state we’re in.
I don’t think we’re just a few facility improvements from the promised land. We have no fans. We have not capitalized on any inroads into the Nashville market that got us into CUSA last time. We have a pathetic record of success in the major sports. We have no dynamic or visionary leadership to drive this forward and sell the program. This isn't turning around in the next 12 or 24 months.
I really think we’d be behind about a dozen schools before we even get a maybe phone call.
So, how do we get to where we want to be?
Frankly, I don’t think we ever will with McPhee in charge. For whatever reason, he’s not interested in athletic success, and that’s not going to change until he’s gone and hopefully we can get some leadership that does place some emphasis on athletics.
So, we have to somehow survive until then. And then rebuilding athletics can take place. That might take every bit of 10+ years.
The MAC offers us a home until we can get our house in order and get into a better place. It’s not only a home, it’s a place we can win. Even in our present state, we’ve got built in advantages over many of the MAC schools - recruiting, budget, even our meh-facilities are better than average in the MAC.
If we want to be attractive to bigger conferences - lets win a bunch of fun MAC-tion games on ESPN, maybe win a few conference titles, and see if we can't generate some momentum that way.
CUSA offers nothing but continued slow death. Their leadership is trash. Their TV deal is awful, and going to get worse. They just pulled in a fake university with toxic values. They added a couple of meh-sounding FCS teams with little to no brand or Q-rating. They're spread out across 75% of the continent across 3 time zones. I've already shown you why the travel is far worse in CUSA than in the MAC (it's not just mileage or # of flights), even though you refuse to believe it. If the AAC/Belt pick anyone else, it's very likely to be someone like FIU or WKU, and causing us to pick up more FCS garbage and stranding us more on an island. Then, we watch the program slowly bleed to death.
It's survivable for a couple of years. Then the money runs out and and then what? Keeping our fingers crossed and hoping that something somewhere pops up in 3 years is not a workable plan.