I don't guess it matters to reveal this now since it no longer exists, but the former BRZ board had a private forum that couldn't be accessed without it being granted. For anyone here who was there at that time they will remember something I wrote about a couple of years ago. I got my MBA from MT but they didn't teach me this there. I've studied it since then. Business cycles. Just like there are short term seasonal cycles in business there are also larger macro economic cycles that occur that sometimes take years - even decades to recycle. I wondered if you could do that with sports. And you can. It's more accurate with pro sports, because there are less unfixed variables but you can still do it with college sports.
And that forecast I made a couple of years ago is basically that we're going to look back in a few years and be begging for our traditional mediocre results. I wrote (back in early 2017) that beginning in the 2019 calendar year MT would begin to experience significant decline in the two major sports. Cycles don't necessarily tell you why. I didn't know Kermit would be leaving then, but it is very clear that this is already taking shape in basketball. Our 2019 final record might be one of the worst seasons we've ever had in basketball. And I'm telling you now for all you sunshine pumpers that there is a very good probability that football is going to be awful next year. Some of y'all just a few days ago were talking about the defense will be good next year. Well, you saw in New Orleans that a) it may not be as good as you think and b) you also see what happens when you have an offense that craps out and its effect on the defense. Just trying to help manage expectations. For those that don't care and choose to walk blindly into the night so be it. Carry on.
I thought that it was somewhat interesting that the cycle told me both sports would decline at the same time. And the only thing I could think of there is that you have the same upper management running both. So, take it for what its worth. I know there are some on this board that will say we'll be fine even as the nukes are being dropped but anyone wanting to be realistic you don't have to see a model to realize things are already falling apart at the seams.
And that forecast I made a couple of years ago is basically that we're going to look back in a few years and be begging for our traditional mediocre results. I wrote (back in early 2017) that beginning in the 2019 calendar year MT would begin to experience significant decline in the two major sports. Cycles don't necessarily tell you why. I didn't know Kermit would be leaving then, but it is very clear that this is already taking shape in basketball. Our 2019 final record might be one of the worst seasons we've ever had in basketball. And I'm telling you now for all you sunshine pumpers that there is a very good probability that football is going to be awful next year. Some of y'all just a few days ago were talking about the defense will be good next year. Well, you saw in New Orleans that a) it may not be as good as you think and b) you also see what happens when you have an offense that craps out and its effect on the defense. Just trying to help manage expectations. For those that don't care and choose to walk blindly into the night so be it. Carry on.
I thought that it was somewhat interesting that the cycle told me both sports would decline at the same time. And the only thing I could think of there is that you have the same upper management running both. So, take it for what its worth. I know there are some on this board that will say we'll be fine even as the nukes are being dropped but anyone wanting to be realistic you don't have to see a model to realize things are already falling apart at the seams.
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