In the MT/WK series this year
Score of game one first half: 38-38
G2 1H: 36-34 (WKU)
G2 2H: 40-36 (MTSU)
G1 2H: 50-27 (WKU)
So what happened in that second half on Feb 3rd that cannot happen again today?
3-point shooting is certainly a large part of these results. In the first grouping MT shot a collective 18/48 from 3 (37.5%) to WK's 7/29 (24.1%). However in G1 2H, Toppers shot 6/10 (60%) from behind the arc, while the Raiders very much struggled: 3/22 (13.6%)
This insert was from my column previewing the first matchup between teams. Updating the criteria: WKU is a stellar 17-1 when they finish with a higher 3p% than opponents. 4-10 otherwise. As said before, the Raiders having the better game beyond the arc will be essential.
The other major variance in the groupings is free throw rate. In the first grouping Middle had a 37.8% FTr (36 FTAs/95 FGAs). Western's was a similar 41%. In G1 2H, WKU's FTr slightly increased to 45.1%, while MT's dropped dramatically to 17.6%
It looks as though in G1 2H, MT panicked and started jacking up bad shots from 3, which played right into WKs hands. Western remains the fastest pace team in the country. They are going to take advantage any mistakes a team has with bad shots and turnovers. Middle MUST stay composed all 40 mins, limit possessions, make sound decisions, & keep this a halfcourt game.
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