Assuming MT has a stellar record that is. IMO you need some resume building wins. @ Ole Miss and @ VCU would go a long way. Then there is Vanderbilt at home, @ Belmont
BASKETBALL What are the chances MT can get an at-large NCAAT bid without winning C-USA Tourney
- Thread starter Matt Dossett
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Yes...those would go a long way to helping us get an at large bid. We also need our conference to do well in non-conference play as well. 50% chance at this point in time. LT played
LT played South Carolina tough but did not win. Has anybody in our conference beaten someone they shouldn't of?
Vagas has VU by 7 tonight IIRC. Since we lost to TSU and catch the Dores next week I think I'll just enjoy the game tonight and not have a favorite.
Been watching a lot of hoops and IMHO, at this time, VCU is our toughest OOC opponent. C-USA, so far, a huge disappointment.
Been watching a lot of hoops and IMHO, at this time, VCU is our toughest OOC opponent. C-USA, so far, a huge disappointment.
IMO, an at large bid is not worth thinking about unless we hit February with only 3 or 4 losses, which is highly unlikely.
C-USA in OOC play has fared better than last year so far. There is still a long way to go, but so far C-USA is 36-33 in OOC competition (.522 win %). Last year, C-USA was 70-96 in OOC play (.422 win%). So far this season, C-USA is 1-0 against the Big East, 2-0 against the AAC, 2-1 against the A-10, 4-1 against against the Colonial, 1-0 against the MVC, and 3-0 against the MAC (total of 13-2 against those 6 leagues). Against those same 6 leagues last year, C-USA was 9-32.
C-USA in OOC play has fared better than last year so far. There is still a long way to go, but so far C-USA is 36-33 in OOC competition (.522 win %). Last year, C-USA was 70-96 in OOC play (.422 win%). So far this season, C-USA is 1-0 against the Big East, 2-0 against the AAC, 2-1 against the A-10, 4-1 against against the Colonial, 1-0 against the MVC, and 3-0 against the MAC (total of 13-2 against those 6 leagues). Against those same 6 leagues last year, C-USA was 9-32.
There are no true headline grabbing wins by the league at this point, but there is a good group of solid wins, as outlined in my post above. The early numbers are more encouraging than a year ago, but the conference needs to back it up with a good December, and we need to see some signs of life from a couple of the bottom feeders. Based on results to date and remaining games, I'm currently estimating C-USA's final OOC record to be at worst 71-84 (.458) and at best 79-76 (.510). Either result is an improvement on last year, but obviously I am hoping for > .500
I should add my OOC numbers referenced in this post (or any other post for that matter) only count games against Division 1 opponents)
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I don't trust the selection committee very well. If Murray State can get left out of the NCAA's by winning 25 in a row two years ago, we need to repeat our feat last year in Birmingham. For consideration, we need a perfect December followed by a maximum of three losses in conference play. A loss in tournament makes five losses. We could perhaps afford a sixth, if one of those was a top 3 in conference (we'd definitely be sweating at 6 total losses if we lost in tournament). Really comes down to winning the tournament in March!!
No big C-USA ooc wins are coming to mind so far this season. A few teams at top of the conf standings are doing a decent job. The bottom 1/4 or 1/3 of the conf is pretty bad. It seems to be hurting the conference overall. From top to bottom, the conference needs much more improvement.
The conf RPI really needs improvement.
I think it is possible MT could get an at-large, but it would take an exceptional amount of success with only a couple/few more losses the rest of the season. Those limited losses would need to happen vs really good teams where the team's RPI wouldn't take much of a hit for the loss.
The conf RPI really needs improvement.
I think it is possible MT could get an at-large, but it would take an exceptional amount of success with only a couple/few more losses the rest of the season. Those limited losses would need to happen vs really good teams where the team's RPI wouldn't take much of a hit for the loss.
Some more data on C-USA: There is still improvement to be made, but overall this year so far has shown an improving trend.
Comparing ending 2016 Pomeroy ratings with ratings so far for this season, 9 of the 14 C-USA teams are so far ranked ahead of where they were last year (Rice, FAU, UTSA, USM, UAB, Marshall, La Tech, MT, Charlotte). Only 4 teams are ranked worse so far than where they finished last year (North Texas, UTEP, FIU, WKU). Old Dominion finished 100th last year, and it is ranked 100th currently, so ODU is a net zero so far this season.
In total, C-USA teams are ranked an average of 17.7 spots higher so far this season than where they finished last season in the Pomeroy ratings.
Rice appears to be the most improved team in the league this season.
Comparing ending 2016 Pomeroy ratings with ratings so far for this season, 9 of the 14 C-USA teams are so far ranked ahead of where they were last year (Rice, FAU, UTSA, USM, UAB, Marshall, La Tech, MT, Charlotte). Only 4 teams are ranked worse so far than where they finished last year (North Texas, UTEP, FIU, WKU). Old Dominion finished 100th last year, and it is ranked 100th currently, so ODU is a net zero so far this season.
In total, C-USA teams are ranked an average of 17.7 spots higher so far this season than where they finished last season in the Pomeroy ratings.
Rice appears to be the most improved team in the league this season.
Rice appears to be climbing in the overall standings as well. I've noticed them winning a few games. It almost seems UTEP is going in the opposite direction. It's still early in the going though.
I don't know how accurate or old CBS Sports rankings page might be, but when I checked it in the last day or two it showed C-USA ranked around 24 in overall conference RPI. That's as bad or worse than last year. Then again, CBS Sports may not be accurate or updated at this point???
I do hope you are right in that C-USA is at least modestly improving. Last season was pretty pathetic for the conference as a whole.
I don't know how accurate or old CBS Sports rankings page might be, but when I checked it in the last day or two it showed C-USA ranked around 24 in overall conference RPI. That's as bad or worse than last year. Then again, CBS Sports may not be accurate or updated at this point???
I do hope you are right in that C-USA is at least modestly improving. Last season was pretty pathetic for the conference as a whole.
FAU was a 4 point dog in that game on the road. UT-Martin hit a 3 at the buzzer to win the game. Definitely a bummer.
Louisiana Tech and Cal are in overtime in Berkeley. Bulldogs were an 11 point dog on the road. Would be a great win for the conference if they can pull it out.
EDIT: Cal wins it 66-59. Too bad
EDIT: Cal wins it 66-59. Too bad
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How much this will effect the committee going forward, I do not know. It seems that shortly after MT got an at-large bid in the OVC in the late 80s, the committee pretty much seemed to relegate the OVC to the auto bid only. The aforementioned Murray St season has been a good example of that. The SunBelt still appears to be a conference capable of an at-large bid as evidenced by MT just a few years ago. South Alabama had received an at-large bid just a few seasons before MT did. Certainly, C-USA is a conf with enough cachet to get at-large bids. Especially with all the conference shake ups over the last 5 years, C-USA will most likely have to demonstrate it's quality in general to aid in getting an at large bid. That is unless 2 C-USA teams go wild and are both ranked in the top 25 at the end of the season. IMO, the bottom half has to improve and bring up the conf RPI ranking to help with the top teams maintaining good RPIs & SOSs even after playing through the conference season.
It seems someone in the conference admin needs to ask FIU & FAU if they are really serious about competing at this level in C-USA athletics. Clearly they were chosen for the media market. Maybe for the Florida recruiting connection. Those two programs seem to be hurting the conference in major sports almost every season.
It seems someone in the conference admin needs to ask FIU & FAU if they are really serious about competing at this level in C-USA athletics. Clearly they were chosen for the media market. Maybe for the Florida recruiting connection. Those two programs seem to be hurting the conference in major sports almost every season.
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