It's been 235 days since I got in the car in St. Louis and drove back to Murfreesboro following the Raiders' 2nd round loss to Syracuse, and it's time to tip off a new season. Pardon the upcoming ramble, but here are some of my general thoughts on this year's team, expectations, and C-USA as a whole:
This year's team
My expectations for this season are somewhat tempered for a couple of reasons:
1) It's tempting to think of last year's team and associate it primarily with the Michigan State win (and rightly so), but that does not necessarily translate into expecting dominance this season. Last year's team gave little indication of what kind of special run they were about to go on when in late February, we were all wringing our hands after the home debacles against UAB and WKU. Then when Simpson went down in Birmingham, I certainly was not overly optimistic about our chances. It just goes to show that the season itself is a long ride. There will be ups and downs, and I would caution against anybody expecting a regular season approaching 30 wins.
2) While we return outstanding veteran pieces in Upshaw and Potts, we lost huge components from last year's team that made the March run possible. Darnell Harris was a huge difference maker because of his ability to stretch defenses and play away from the basket. Perrin Buford was one of the most athletic matchups for opponents last season because of his ability to slash and rebound from all places on the floor. These two guys will be missed and it remains to be seen if newcomers or returning players can fill these types of roles on a consistent basis. We have some talented pieces to be optimistic about, but the team chemistry and flow of the on-court action are something that will have to be re-created with new ingredients. It's far from a guarantee.
3) I worry about the team's ability to properly support what Potts provides from behind the 3-point line. We need another one or two guys that can consistently be counted on to demand defense's respect on the perimeter. I know we have guys that can make 3-pointers and can sometimes make them in flurries, but in my opinion there is no one besides Potts on the roster that has proven the ability to be a game-in and game-out threat. Simpson is the closest in my opinion. Upshaw can shoot from out there, but I see him as a guy that will hit from deep in quick bursts. He was 0 for his last 11 on 3-point attempts before catching fire against Michigan State, for example. If one or two additional players don't grow into reliable 3-point shooting options on a daily basis, there will be a couple of ugly losses. Harris was invaluable last year because you could do so much with him and Potts either on the same side of the floor together or opposite one another. Defenses were stretched to cover both of them, and rarely were they able to do it.
I absolutely think this can be a great season and a special team, and my expectations are high. However, there are personnel question marks and the schedule is the toughest it has ever been (albeit somewhat more friendly than years past from a game location standpoint).
Aside from free throw shooting (obviously), one key area we must improve this year is offensive rebounding. Last year's team was statistically the worst offensive rebounding team under Davis, but we made up for it with better than average shooting and a low turnover rate. I hope adding Williams and Walters to the front line along with Upshaw's athleticism will bring the rebounding back to where we have been accustomed to seeing it. To last year's team's credit, they did get some key offensive rebounds at the most important times. Upshaw tied the C-USA Championship game 53-53 with a minute remaining on an offensive putback, and there were multiple borderline miraculous second chance baskets scored against Michigan State (one of the nation's most vaunted rebounding programs).
C-USA
The league desperately needs a better non-conference performance this year than what it did last year.
Here's a breakdown of the schedule:
There are 146 known OOC games for C-USA teams (there will be some additional games against opponents that are TBA because of holiday tournaments with bracketed formats). Of the games that we know for sure now, 70 (47.9%) will be home games for the C-USA team and an additional 17 games (11.6%) will be at neutral sites. In total, that means close to 60% of C-USA's OOC games will be either home games or neutral site games. There are 59 true road games that are set in stone. I don't have the data to know how that stacks up to prior years, but on the surface I view that as a good percentage breakdown of game sites (although it would be nice to have >50% be true home games).
C-USA teams will have a total of 12 OOC home games against teams that ranked in the final KenPom top 125 last season. Two of these 12 are against Power 5 conference opponents (MT vs. Vanderbilt on 12/8 and Charlotte vs. Oregon State on 12/3). There are an additional 12 games slated for neutral sites in which C-USA teams will face a team ranked in the top 125 or better last season. 7 of these 12 games are against Power 5 opponents (UTEP plays Wake Forest, UAB plays Kansas, ODU plays Louisville, WKU plays Washington, Charlotte plays Florida and Maryland, and Southern Miss gets a crack at Mississippi State).
Those combined 24 games at home and neutral sites will go a long way toward determining the success or failure of C-USA this season. There are 34 true road games for C-USA teams against top 125 competition from a year ago. MT has two such games (at VCU and at Ole Miss). Belmont nearly made the cut as they were 129th last year, but that is certainly a tough road game as well.
There are an additional 59 games against teams that were ranked outside the top 200 last year. 40 of these 59 games are home games for C-USA teams (67.8%). The conference needs to dominate this category and pick off enough of the 24 home/neutral games against high quality opponents mentioned above, in order to move up the pecking order of conferences.
It all starts tomorrow with a full slate of games, some more exciting than others. Let's have a great season and GBR!
This year's team
My expectations for this season are somewhat tempered for a couple of reasons:
1) It's tempting to think of last year's team and associate it primarily with the Michigan State win (and rightly so), but that does not necessarily translate into expecting dominance this season. Last year's team gave little indication of what kind of special run they were about to go on when in late February, we were all wringing our hands after the home debacles against UAB and WKU. Then when Simpson went down in Birmingham, I certainly was not overly optimistic about our chances. It just goes to show that the season itself is a long ride. There will be ups and downs, and I would caution against anybody expecting a regular season approaching 30 wins.
2) While we return outstanding veteran pieces in Upshaw and Potts, we lost huge components from last year's team that made the March run possible. Darnell Harris was a huge difference maker because of his ability to stretch defenses and play away from the basket. Perrin Buford was one of the most athletic matchups for opponents last season because of his ability to slash and rebound from all places on the floor. These two guys will be missed and it remains to be seen if newcomers or returning players can fill these types of roles on a consistent basis. We have some talented pieces to be optimistic about, but the team chemistry and flow of the on-court action are something that will have to be re-created with new ingredients. It's far from a guarantee.
3) I worry about the team's ability to properly support what Potts provides from behind the 3-point line. We need another one or two guys that can consistently be counted on to demand defense's respect on the perimeter. I know we have guys that can make 3-pointers and can sometimes make them in flurries, but in my opinion there is no one besides Potts on the roster that has proven the ability to be a game-in and game-out threat. Simpson is the closest in my opinion. Upshaw can shoot from out there, but I see him as a guy that will hit from deep in quick bursts. He was 0 for his last 11 on 3-point attempts before catching fire against Michigan State, for example. If one or two additional players don't grow into reliable 3-point shooting options on a daily basis, there will be a couple of ugly losses. Harris was invaluable last year because you could do so much with him and Potts either on the same side of the floor together or opposite one another. Defenses were stretched to cover both of them, and rarely were they able to do it.
I absolutely think this can be a great season and a special team, and my expectations are high. However, there are personnel question marks and the schedule is the toughest it has ever been (albeit somewhat more friendly than years past from a game location standpoint).
Aside from free throw shooting (obviously), one key area we must improve this year is offensive rebounding. Last year's team was statistically the worst offensive rebounding team under Davis, but we made up for it with better than average shooting and a low turnover rate. I hope adding Williams and Walters to the front line along with Upshaw's athleticism will bring the rebounding back to where we have been accustomed to seeing it. To last year's team's credit, they did get some key offensive rebounds at the most important times. Upshaw tied the C-USA Championship game 53-53 with a minute remaining on an offensive putback, and there were multiple borderline miraculous second chance baskets scored against Michigan State (one of the nation's most vaunted rebounding programs).
C-USA
The league desperately needs a better non-conference performance this year than what it did last year.
Here's a breakdown of the schedule:
There are 146 known OOC games for C-USA teams (there will be some additional games against opponents that are TBA because of holiday tournaments with bracketed formats). Of the games that we know for sure now, 70 (47.9%) will be home games for the C-USA team and an additional 17 games (11.6%) will be at neutral sites. In total, that means close to 60% of C-USA's OOC games will be either home games or neutral site games. There are 59 true road games that are set in stone. I don't have the data to know how that stacks up to prior years, but on the surface I view that as a good percentage breakdown of game sites (although it would be nice to have >50% be true home games).
C-USA teams will have a total of 12 OOC home games against teams that ranked in the final KenPom top 125 last season. Two of these 12 are against Power 5 conference opponents (MT vs. Vanderbilt on 12/8 and Charlotte vs. Oregon State on 12/3). There are an additional 12 games slated for neutral sites in which C-USA teams will face a team ranked in the top 125 or better last season. 7 of these 12 games are against Power 5 opponents (UTEP plays Wake Forest, UAB plays Kansas, ODU plays Louisville, WKU plays Washington, Charlotte plays Florida and Maryland, and Southern Miss gets a crack at Mississippi State).
Those combined 24 games at home and neutral sites will go a long way toward determining the success or failure of C-USA this season. There are 34 true road games for C-USA teams against top 125 competition from a year ago. MT has two such games (at VCU and at Ole Miss). Belmont nearly made the cut as they were 129th last year, but that is certainly a tough road game as well.
There are an additional 59 games against teams that were ranked outside the top 200 last year. 40 of these 59 games are home games for C-USA teams (67.8%). The conference needs to dominate this category and pick off enough of the 24 home/neutral games against high quality opponents mentioned above, in order to move up the pecking order of conferences.
It all starts tomorrow with a full slate of games, some more exciting than others. Let's have a great season and GBR!
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