BASKETBALL Solid Preview of CUSA
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excerpts from this guy's preview of ovc
1. Belmont- If you were drafting mid-major basketball coaches, Rick Byrd would be the No. 1 pick, without hesitation. I've gone on and on about Rick Byrd and the dynasty he's built in Nashville over on my personal blog, so I'll keep it light here: Rick Byrd is a genius and the best mid-major coach in the game. The Bruins haven't had a losing conference season since 2001-02, and his beautiful spread pick and roll/drag screen transition offense has ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency five of the past seven years; it's also been the best 2PT% offense in the entire nation four of the past five years (Belmont was third the one "off" year). And his sweater vest game is impeccable. This year Byrd has to replace beyond ultra-efficient Evan Bradds as the primary "roll man" in his offense, as well as Taylor Barnette, from a team that nearly ran the OVC table last year before being upset by Jacksonville State in the OVC tournament. But as I mentioned before, Byrd just simply doesn't rebuild, he just restocks with his constantly developing roster. A healthy Mack Mercer and Amanze Ekegeze can more than replicate Bradds' production, and they even add some perimeter shooting to the mix in that role. If Mercer can stay healthy, he's capable of being an elite rim protector and rebounder in the OVC as well. In the backcourt, Austin Luke returns as a pitch perfect distributor in Byrd's offense, as he posted the eighth-highest assist rate in the country last year. His turnover rate can run exceedingly high, and his jumper is streaky at best, but he's a senior point guard who knows the offense in and out; he's as essential of a player as there is in the league. Off the ball, Dylan Windler and Michael Benkert will be the key scorers, with Windler returning as one of the best shooters in the country and an effective defender 2-4. Freshmen Pedro Bradshaw, Grayson Murphy and Nick Hopkins will all factor into Byrd's rotation this year, with Bradshaw and Murphy coming in as three-star recruits. Defensively, Byrd almost always tailors his scheme around personnel (so many coaches do the opposite, and Byrd wisely recognizes that a mid-major program doesn't have that luxury), and thus Belmont's numbers vary wildly from year to year. Some of Byrd's best teams extended pressure, and he had two tournament teams that ranked second and ninth nationally in defensive turnover rate. Last year's team was 314th. With and influx of wing/backcourt talent, Byrd might try to return to some ball pressure. Belmont won't be as dominant as they were last year, but I also doubt they shoot 34 percent again from 3, which was the lowest number for Byrd's prolific 3-point offense in the last 16 years. Until otherwise informed, Belmont is still the class of the OVC.
2. Murray State- Matt McMahon spent the offseason loading up on defenders to buoy a Racers defense that was ninth in efficiency rating last year and was particularly inept at defending at the rim. However, most of McMahon's additions are in the backcourt and on the wing, so I wouldn't be shocked if the Racers amp up the pressure on the ball with all the new athleticism. The backcourt is led by Jonathan Stark, and the mega scoring point guard had a massive first season in Murray after transferring from Tulane. Stark was a lethally efficient high-volume shooter, and he's one of the elite scorers in the entire country. With Towson transfer Byron Hawkins and freshman Ja Morant expected to log serious minutes on the ball, Stark could be in line to lead the country in scoring. If McMahon chooses to play all three point guards at the same time in his spread pick and roll, the Racers are going to put up some huge numbers. However, shoring up the defense has to be the priority, which means long two guard Shaq Buchanan could see a lot of run off the ball, as could freshmen Tevin Brown and Brion Whitley. Whitley was recruited by Kevin Keatts at UNCW originally as a perfect fit in his pressure defense. At 6-foot-8, Terrell Miller is a matchup nightmare as a 43 percent 3-point shooter who can also attack off the dribble. He's an excellent rebounder but was totally lost defensively in the paint. McMahon didn't do much to help the interior defense, so a massive sophomore leap from Jalen Dupree will be imperative. Dupree was a lackluster rebounder and meh rim protector in his freshman season. Veteran Brion Sanchious is a big-bodied lane clogger and capable post scorer, but also a slow-footed defender in the paint. With Stark and Miller, the Murray State offense should be capable of outscoring anyone in the league, but the defense has to improve mightily, especially at the rim. Whether that involves a big leap from Dupree or McMahon opting to extend pressure with his influx of wing athletes remains to be seen.
5. Tennessee State- The Tigers were one of the more disappointing teams in mid-major basketball last year, especially after a nonconference performance that saw them win the Cable Car Classic, beat a very good MTSU team on the road, lose in OT at NC State and have a second-half lead at Duke. Part of me feels like they never recovered from a second-half meltdown at Murray State (to be fair, the officiating was horrific in that game) to open the OVC season. Regardless, an 8-8 season with a dominant frontcourt and an outstanding senior point guard was a major disappointment for Dana Ford's squad. Ford loses a lot of talent this year, but perhaps some chemistry issues will be resolved, and he still has four solid veterans as the team's nucleus. Armani Chaney will take over as the full-time point guard in Tahj McCall's stead, and while he's not the same level scorer or penetrator, he's a key cog defensively in Ford's scheme that pressures ball handlers but sags down in the paint and undercuts screens to force jump shots and crash the defensive glass. His running mate is Delano Spencer, one of Ford's only jump shooters. Darreon Reddick returns on the wing, but his inefficient shooting could lead to a minutes reduction, especially with two key transfers coming in - AC Reid from Liberty and three-star JUCO Kamar McKnight. Ford's frontcourt should once again be a strength for the Tigers, as Christian Mekowulu is a full year removed from an ACL tear and should be one of the league's premier rim protectors and rebounders, with an increased role in the post as well. Ken'Darrius Hamilton at the 4 offers more solid interior defense in Ford's super compact scheme, and he has a burgeoning floor-stretching game on the other end. Ford bolstered the frontcourt depth with a slew of JUCOs this year, and they'll be needed given TSU's likely high foul rate again. Turnovers, mental mistakes and fouls were essentially the undoing of what should have been a potential OVC title team last year. The good news is that those are all correctable issues and not talent related.
1. Belmont- If you were drafting mid-major basketball coaches, Rick Byrd would be the No. 1 pick, without hesitation. I've gone on and on about Rick Byrd and the dynasty he's built in Nashville over on my personal blog, so I'll keep it light here: Rick Byrd is a genius and the best mid-major coach in the game. The Bruins haven't had a losing conference season since 2001-02, and his beautiful spread pick and roll/drag screen transition offense has ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency five of the past seven years; it's also been the best 2PT% offense in the entire nation four of the past five years (Belmont was third the one "off" year). And his sweater vest game is impeccable. This year Byrd has to replace beyond ultra-efficient Evan Bradds as the primary "roll man" in his offense, as well as Taylor Barnette, from a team that nearly ran the OVC table last year before being upset by Jacksonville State in the OVC tournament. But as I mentioned before, Byrd just simply doesn't rebuild, he just restocks with his constantly developing roster. A healthy Mack Mercer and Amanze Ekegeze can more than replicate Bradds' production, and they even add some perimeter shooting to the mix in that role. If Mercer can stay healthy, he's capable of being an elite rim protector and rebounder in the OVC as well. In the backcourt, Austin Luke returns as a pitch perfect distributor in Byrd's offense, as he posted the eighth-highest assist rate in the country last year. His turnover rate can run exceedingly high, and his jumper is streaky at best, but he's a senior point guard who knows the offense in and out; he's as essential of a player as there is in the league. Off the ball, Dylan Windler and Michael Benkert will be the key scorers, with Windler returning as one of the best shooters in the country and an effective defender 2-4. Freshmen Pedro Bradshaw, Grayson Murphy and Nick Hopkins will all factor into Byrd's rotation this year, with Bradshaw and Murphy coming in as three-star recruits. Defensively, Byrd almost always tailors his scheme around personnel (so many coaches do the opposite, and Byrd wisely recognizes that a mid-major program doesn't have that luxury), and thus Belmont's numbers vary wildly from year to year. Some of Byrd's best teams extended pressure, and he had two tournament teams that ranked second and ninth nationally in defensive turnover rate. Last year's team was 314th. With and influx of wing/backcourt talent, Byrd might try to return to some ball pressure. Belmont won't be as dominant as they were last year, but I also doubt they shoot 34 percent again from 3, which was the lowest number for Byrd's prolific 3-point offense in the last 16 years. Until otherwise informed, Belmont is still the class of the OVC.
2. Murray State- Matt McMahon spent the offseason loading up on defenders to buoy a Racers defense that was ninth in efficiency rating last year and was particularly inept at defending at the rim. However, most of McMahon's additions are in the backcourt and on the wing, so I wouldn't be shocked if the Racers amp up the pressure on the ball with all the new athleticism. The backcourt is led by Jonathan Stark, and the mega scoring point guard had a massive first season in Murray after transferring from Tulane. Stark was a lethally efficient high-volume shooter, and he's one of the elite scorers in the entire country. With Towson transfer Byron Hawkins and freshman Ja Morant expected to log serious minutes on the ball, Stark could be in line to lead the country in scoring. If McMahon chooses to play all three point guards at the same time in his spread pick and roll, the Racers are going to put up some huge numbers. However, shoring up the defense has to be the priority, which means long two guard Shaq Buchanan could see a lot of run off the ball, as could freshmen Tevin Brown and Brion Whitley. Whitley was recruited by Kevin Keatts at UNCW originally as a perfect fit in his pressure defense. At 6-foot-8, Terrell Miller is a matchup nightmare as a 43 percent 3-point shooter who can also attack off the dribble. He's an excellent rebounder but was totally lost defensively in the paint. McMahon didn't do much to help the interior defense, so a massive sophomore leap from Jalen Dupree will be imperative. Dupree was a lackluster rebounder and meh rim protector in his freshman season. Veteran Brion Sanchious is a big-bodied lane clogger and capable post scorer, but also a slow-footed defender in the paint. With Stark and Miller, the Murray State offense should be capable of outscoring anyone in the league, but the defense has to improve mightily, especially at the rim. Whether that involves a big leap from Dupree or McMahon opting to extend pressure with his influx of wing athletes remains to be seen.
5. Tennessee State- The Tigers were one of the more disappointing teams in mid-major basketball last year, especially after a nonconference performance that saw them win the Cable Car Classic, beat a very good MTSU team on the road, lose in OT at NC State and have a second-half lead at Duke. Part of me feels like they never recovered from a second-half meltdown at Murray State (to be fair, the officiating was horrific in that game) to open the OVC season. Regardless, an 8-8 season with a dominant frontcourt and an outstanding senior point guard was a major disappointment for Dana Ford's squad. Ford loses a lot of talent this year, but perhaps some chemistry issues will be resolved, and he still has four solid veterans as the team's nucleus. Armani Chaney will take over as the full-time point guard in Tahj McCall's stead, and while he's not the same level scorer or penetrator, he's a key cog defensively in Ford's scheme that pressures ball handlers but sags down in the paint and undercuts screens to force jump shots and crash the defensive glass. His running mate is Delano Spencer, one of Ford's only jump shooters. Darreon Reddick returns on the wing, but his inefficient shooting could lead to a minutes reduction, especially with two key transfers coming in - AC Reid from Liberty and three-star JUCO Kamar McKnight. Ford's frontcourt should once again be a strength for the Tigers, as Christian Mekowulu is a full year removed from an ACL tear and should be one of the league's premier rim protectors and rebounders, with an increased role in the post as well. Ken'Darrius Hamilton at the 4 offers more solid interior defense in Ford's super compact scheme, and he has a burgeoning floor-stretching game on the other end. Ford bolstered the frontcourt depth with a slew of JUCOs this year, and they'll be needed given TSU's likely high foul rate again. Turnovers, mental mistakes and fouls were essentially the undoing of what should have been a potential OVC title team last year. The good news is that those are all correctable issues and not talent related.
this guy's write up of Princeton out of the Ivy League:
3. Princeton- Clearly the Tigers aren't going to run the table again this year, but the dropoff shouldn't be as significant as some prognosticators seem to think. Mitch Henderson still doesn't have a proven frontcourt, but he was just fine with a five-guard lineup for much of last season, especially since a defender like Myles Stephens (the reigning Ivy Defensive Player of the Year) makes up for a lot of the perceived lack of height. While Henderson still very much utilizes the traditional Princeton offense, he's added a wrinkle where his versatile cadre of perimeter shooters quickly exploit any defensive switching mismatches by putting the ball on the floor. That said, the Tigers still led the league in 3-point attempt rate, of course. While Stephens returns along side lethal shooter Devin Cannady and instant energy Amir Bell (who really embraced a bench role last year), the losses of Spencer Weisz and Steven Cook are quite significant. Talented freshmen Jerome Desrosiers and Sebastian Much will be relied on sooner rather than later to fill those voids. The frontcourt of Alec Brennan and Will Gladson is solid if unspectacular, but they know the offense and are comfortable with their roles.
3. Princeton- Clearly the Tigers aren't going to run the table again this year, but the dropoff shouldn't be as significant as some prognosticators seem to think. Mitch Henderson still doesn't have a proven frontcourt, but he was just fine with a five-guard lineup for much of last season, especially since a defender like Myles Stephens (the reigning Ivy Defensive Player of the Year) makes up for a lot of the perceived lack of height. While Henderson still very much utilizes the traditional Princeton offense, he's added a wrinkle where his versatile cadre of perimeter shooters quickly exploit any defensive switching mismatches by putting the ball on the floor. That said, the Tigers still led the league in 3-point attempt rate, of course. While Stephens returns along side lethal shooter Devin Cannady and instant energy Amir Bell (who really embraced a bench role last year), the losses of Spencer Weisz and Steven Cook are quite significant. Talented freshmen Jerome Desrosiers and Sebastian Much will be relied on sooner rather than later to fill those voids. The frontcourt of Alec Brennan and Will Gladson is solid if unspectacular, but they know the offense and are comfortable with their roles.
Good stuff. Going to be a great year with tons of competition. Not many easy wins this year. My heart about exploded last year. Yikes!
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