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FOOTBALL Middle Tennessee (1-1) vs WKU (1-1) (ESPN+), 6PM, Saturday, September 14, 2024

If anyone read Phil Steele’s magazine this summer he predicted us to be second to last in our conference. I kind of figured we would end up being 3-9 or 4-8 this year. WKU was going to be a hard game to win. Even though they have a lot of new players they probably still had a good core that had chemistry and experience. It’s pretty evident we don’t have either. It’s just going to take time.
 
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Nothing went right for the MTSU today and part of that was the internet being out in the pressbox for the whole game for us so that is why there was no board postings from us tonight. Offense was alright but they ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO start finishing drives. Defense ABSOLUTELY HAS TO tackle in space. A LOT of things to be cleaned up. They are knocking themselves out of games with not doing the little things right
 
Plenty of teams out there that are young with lots of turnover and new faces that are playing well. That excuse doesn't fly anymore
Name a coach who has beaten arguably the best team in their conference for years in a new coaches third game? I get the point of quick turnarounds but expecting to see a ton out of these first 5 games is really putting CDM in a tough spot. I would have expected the game to be more competitive but I am not shocked with where we are.
 
The Good: We ran up some yards - offense looks like it needs a tune up (learn how to punch it in) rather than an overhaul. Still looks like a FBS team from a size/speed perspective. I never felt like we had bad body language or there was any real quit in the guys.

Bad: Defense. You would need to study the film to see whether or not it was a scheme issue or a talent/athlete issue. I kind of feel like guys were in the area, or covering the right guy, but just a step behind/slow. But that could be anything from a recognition issue, to WKU just has more and better horses, - hopefully Mason figures it out.

Ugly: This is the reality of a rebuild. Like I said before, teams that change coaching staffs and come out flying are the exception, not the rule (only 3 of 16 G5 new staffs started 2-0).

With Duke and Memphis up next, it's going to get harder - In the immortal words of the legendary warrior poet Rodney Atkins - when you're going through hell, keep on going.
 
Name a coach who has beaten arguably the best team in their conference for years in a new coaches third game? I get the point of quick turnarounds but expecting to see a ton out of these first 5 games is really putting CDM in a tough spot. I would have expected the game to be more competitive but I am not shocked with where we are.

Huh? I’m learning you’re one of those. Just the facts here…

1) Western hasn’t won this league in seven years. 2) In spite of DM doing and saying all the right things in the offseason this program is in shambles.

For those of us who have been around this thing since the beginning it’s a pretty tough pill to swallow while you watch your one rival keep taking your lunch and making us say thank you for the privilege. Whether DM is the person to resurrect this program or not I do not know. And frankly there may not be any saving this program. Under our university’s leadership we’ve become ULM or an Idaho (or maybe even Pacific). I would say there is better than a 50% chance MT ends up dropping down or dropping football altogether. These clowns have destroyed our athletics dept that significantly.
 
Ok. Now that I've slept on it, here are my thoughts.

I'm very much a knee jersey reaction guy, which is why I could never be an AD. I'm not patient by any means. Ask my wife how I drive and she will tell you.

But in reality, this will take time. Did I think we could win, yes, mostly. My blue goggles think we should've beat Ole Miss. But this really was the first true chance to see how we are vs our peers, our conference. And Lord there is work to do. But I'm willing to give CDM a chance. I predicted 5-7, so we will see. Like said before, let's see if there is improvement over the season (open field tackling doesn't need a new recruit to get fixed). I'm not gonna abandon ship on a first year head coach. Did I think we'd be more competitive, yes. I was hoping for 2-3 going into the bye. I don't know if that will happen now.

One thing I do know is when a game turns like last night, I'm no longer putting my 45yr old high blood pressure self through the stress and I'm changing the channel. Sometimes I wonder if i should avoid the board and Twitter too. 🤣
 
Understand both sides opinion. Saying to myself I'm willing to give this coach & staff support this year. Even during this tough transition period. But if we end up 1-11 or 2-10 at end of year I honestly can't say I'll feel the same. I know a lot of you fellows are in your 20's to 40's & can hang in there a while. I'm not, seen mediocrity for a long time & ready to start seeing some improvement. Hopefully it will start developing by the 2nd half of the year.
 

 
CDM had some good commentary. Even this is a breath of fresh air. Took complete ownership of it, said there were injuries but everyone deals with that, pretty much just said no excuses. I think he will get it straightened out. Also eluded to he will be making some changes to people playing. It will be an uncomfortable week for the players I feel.
 
CDM had some good commentary. Even this is a breath of fresh air. Took complete ownership of it, said there were injuries but everyone deals with that, pretty much just said no excuses. I think he will get it straightened out. Also eluded to he will be making some changes to people playing. It will be an uncomfortable week for the players I feel.

I don't know man. There's something about DM that gives me a fake-it-till-you-make-it kind of vibe. Dude has a catchy saying for everything. That shit doesn't win games or mean anything. Can he actually coach and lead a program to a championship?

When is the last time he actually had success as a coach in CFB? What work exists out there to really give us any hope as fans? I don't see any. He has bombed out of the last three jobs he has had, and some might argue the success Stanford had while he was there really didn't have anything to do with him. Did Mason win ANYWHERE else besides Stanford?

Both coordinators are clear downgrades. Like, CLEAR downgrades. Not even up for debate. Mitch Stewart and Scott Shafer would eat these guys for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and dessert. The team as a whole is clearly a downgrade at nearly every position group vs. previous years. Yeah it's year one but this wasn't a rebuild (DM's words, not mine). This program has good bones I thought? We needed heroics to beat a bad Tenn Tech team with their backup QB....

I've got a bad, bad feeling about how Mason's tenure is going to play out here. And once again, we've picked a terrible time to be a doormat.
 
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I’m not buying anymore talk. Talk is cheap. This defense couldn’t stop Tennessee Tech. Last night’s game was, for all practical purposes, over at halftime. Definitely by the 3rd Qtr. It was like watching the Bowling Green Beatdown from 10 years ago all over again. The conference schedule will not be kind to this football team. The Memphis game will be even uglier.

Why the same people who make the decisions for this Athletic Dept. are still employed after 20 years is beyond my comprehension.
 
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I’m not buying anymore talk. Talk is cheap. This defense couldn’t stop Tennessee Tech. Last night’s game was, for all practical purposes, over at halftime. Definitely by the 3rd Qtr. It was like watching the Bowling Green Beatdown from 10 years ago all over again. The conference schedule will not be kind to this football team. The Memphis game will be even uglier.

Why the same people who make the decisions for this Athletic Dept. are still employed after 20 years is beyond my comprehension.
I said before we only got rid of a third of our problem. Until the other two are gone they will continue to make bad decisions.
 
I’m not buying anymore talk. Talk is cheap. This defense couldn’t stop Tennessee Tech. Last night’s game was, for all practical purposes, over at halftime. Definitely by the 3rd Qtr. It was like watching the Bowling Green Beatdown from 10 years ago all over again. The conference schedule will not be kind to this football team. The Memphis game will be even uglier.
I'm not sure why the struggles against Ole Miss & WKU (and presumably Duke / Memphis) are a surprise to folks.

It's two P5 programs (Ole Miss / Duke), one of the better G5 programs, and a conference rival that's had MT's number for a bit. The season opening stretch was going to be ugly with Stock or without Stock. With Mason or without Mason. There are few coaches that could have navigated the first 5 games & come out 3-2. Sure, the competitor in every coach wants to win every game, but the reality is, the first 5 games are hard.

I'm not cutting CDM slack either. Defense (injuries or no injuries) needs to play better. Offense needs to take advantage of trips inside the redzone.

There is a reason there was a job opening. The program wasn't in good shape (you can blame Stock, Massaro, McPhee or the easter bunny for that), but this is a rebuild complete with a scheme overhaul on both sides of the ball. It's a process & it's going to take time. You're probably looking at 2026 before we see what a CDM MT FB team looks like.

That's because MT Is/was behind. Facilities. NIL funding. And they're not going to catch up in 9 months b/c of a coaching hire (unless, of course, Nick Saban suddenly decided he wanted to live in the Boro).
 
I'm not sure why the struggles against Ole Miss & WKU (and presumably Duke / Memphis) are a surprise to folks.

It's two P5 programs (Ole Miss / Duke), one of the better G5 programs, and a conference rival that's had MT's number for a bit. The season opening stretch was going to be ugly with Stock or without Stock. With Mason or without Mason. There are few coaches that could have navigated the first 5 games & come out 3-2. Sure, the competitor in every coach wants to win every game, but the reality is, the first 5 games are hard.

I'm not cutting CDM slack either. Defense (injuries or no injuries) needs to play better. Offense needs to take advantage of trips inside the redzone.

There is a reason there was a job opening. The program wasn't in good shape (you can blame Stock, Massaro, McPhee or the easter bunny for that), but this is a rebuild complete with a scheme overhaul on both sides of the ball. It's a process & it's going to take time. You're probably looking at 2026 before we see what a CDM MT FB team looks like.

That's because MT Is/was behind. Facilities. NIL funding. And they're not going to catch up in 9 months b/c of a coaching hire (unless, of course, Nick Saban suddenly decided he wanted to live in the Boro).
FWIW, Mason wasn't the guy I would have targeted. I wanted someone from the veer and shoot / Briles / Kiffin family. Feel like that would have been similar enough schematically / personnel wise that MT would have to overhaul the roster. And, that offense is just fun to watch. Could have led to some fun with #AirRaiders (or similar) branding.

Going with a "pro-style" guy like CDM required a scheme overhaul and that extends the rebuild b/c it takes time to get those guys in & familiar with the system.
 
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Both coordinators are clear downgrades. Like, CLEAR downgrades. Not even up for debate. Mitch Stewart and Scott Shafer would eat these guys for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and dessert.
The same Mitch Stewart that had a red zone TD% of 54% last year? His offense was known for getting inside the 10 and throwing their playbook away.

It’s too early to make a call on Reeder, the offense has shown it’s capable of putting up yards. Poor execution under center and a bad pass/luck is why they didn’t score in those two drives. The run game could be better, but relative to Stewart, this offense looks way better.
 
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FWIW, Mason wasn't the guy I would have targeted. I wanted someone from the veer and shoot / Briles / Kiffin family. Feel like that would have been similar enough schematically / personnel wise that MT would have to overhaul the roster. And, that offense is just fun to watch. Could have led to some fun with #AirRaiders (or similar) branding.

Going with a "pro-style" guy like CDM required a scheme overhaul and that extends the rebuild b/c it takes time to get those guys in & familiar with the system.

Just a thought - it's long been said that the way for talent deficient teams to win vs higher talent was to run those spread, high tempo, get guys in space and make things happen. The smaller programs and G5 have led the way there, but it's now pretty much the defacto offense even amongst the biggest teams - Tennessee, Bama, Ohio State, Oregon.

What if we're seeing the pendulum swing back? Controlling the clock, run the ball, keep it away from those offenses. Also, maybe you portal proof yourself a little bit - if you're successful with another system, maybe your players aren't looked at as a farm team by the bigger fish?

I'm not saying we're going back to 1985 pro-style, but it's not the worst idea in the world to zig when everyone else zags.

Yeah, might be playing 4D chess here, but it is an idea that popped up to me.
 
The same Mitch Stewart that had a red zone TD% of 54% last year? His offense was known for getting inside the 10 and throwing their playbook away.

It’s too early to make a call on Reeder, the offense has shown it’s capable of putting up yards. Poor execution under center and a bad pass/luck is why they didn’t score in those two drives. The run game could be better, but relative to Stewart, this offense looks way better.

When you put up 500+ yards of offense, it's hard to say that the offense was THE problem. Yes, we stubbed our toe and didn't put the #'s on the scoreboard that the stats would indicate that we should have, but to be honest, watching that game I never felt that the offense was the limiting factor.

We need to fine tune on offense, clean and tighten it up, but it's not broken.
 
FWIW, Mason wasn't the guy I would have targeted. I wanted someone from the veer and shoot / Briles / Kiffin family. Feel like that would have been similar enough schematically / personnel wise that MT would have to overhaul the roster. And, that offense is just fun to watch. Could have led to some fun with #AirRaiders (or similar) branding.

Going with a "pro-style" guy like CDM required a scheme overhaul and that extends the rebuild b/c it takes time to get those guys in & familiar with the system.
It also doesn’t work in G5 circles unless you’re Boise and can recruit men. There’s a bit of reality slapping folks in the face right now. I personally don’t see this style working here and have said that from the beginning. But unlike basketball where I 100% knew his style wouldn’t work here I’m only about 75% confident with the football situation, because there are more dynamics at play. That said, I also want to believe Mason is different and it’s not all just catchy one liners and win the media days. I want to believe there is substance behind his persona and that he can recruit and develop the type of people needed to match his philosophy, but that’s a)going to require recruiting unlike we’ve ever seen or been able to do here and b) definitely going to take time to figure out. Time we don’t really have. And that’s kind of the issue.

This “leadership” chose a really bad time to lock themselves in a near lifetime contract with a .500 coach and it’s now a really bad time to be taking the time to change philosophy. In three or four years most of the rest of what CFB looks like for the next 50 years is going to be coming into focus if not completely set. We just don’t have time for another failed venture from M&M.
 
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When you put up 500+ yards of offense, it's hard to say that the offense was THE problem. Yes, we stubbed our toe and didn't put the #'s on the scoreboard that the stats would indicate that we should have, but to be honest, watching that game I never felt that the offense was the limiting factor.

We need to fine tune on offense, clean and tighten it up, but it's not broken.
Part of this is because it was pretty clear they just said F it at half time and they decided to call the plays that these guys are used to running. They still couldn’t run the ball. It was an acknowledgment that they can’t run what Mason wants to run right now. It will be interesting to see what they do rest of the way. I don’t know how much air raid stuff Bodie has in his playbook but that’s probably where they need to go for the remainder of this season if they want to have any chance at winning another game. Aside from better tackling I’m not sure what can be done with defense. We’re going to have to outscore opponents.
 
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The same Mitch Stewart that had a red zone TD% of 54% last year? His offense was known for getting inside the 10 and throwing their playbook away.

It’s too early to make a call on Reeder, the offense has shown it’s capable of putting up yards. Poor execution under center and a bad pass/luck is why they didn’t score in those two drives. The run game could be better, but relative to Stewart, this offense looks way better.
The same Mitch Stewart who is now an Offensive Analyst at Memphis and went head to head with his old boss on Saturday. 😂😂
“Stuckstill”
 
Just a thought - it's long been said that the way for talent deficient teams to win vs higher talent was to run those spread, high tempo, get guys in space and make things happen. The smaller programs and G5 have led the way there, but it's now pretty much the defacto offense even amongst the biggest teams - Tennessee, Bama, Ohio State, Oregon.

What if we're seeing the pendulum swing back? Controlling the clock, run the ball, keep it away from those offenses. Also, maybe you portal proof yourself a little bit - if you're successful with another system, maybe your players aren't looked at as a farm team by the bigger fish?

I'm not saying we're going back to 1985 pro-style, but it's not the worst idea in the world to zig when everyone else zags.

Yeah, might be playing 4D chess here, but it is an idea that popped up to me.
I've wondered the same (with Titans & MT)...But I think you still need to be dynamic & explosive. It's just too hard to go on a 10 play, 75 yard drive in football.

You don't have to run the latest offense (veer and shoot), but you do need to find a way to be explosive / dynamic within the confines of a pro-style offense.
 
It also doesn’t work in G5 circles unless you’re Boise and can recruit men. There’s a bit of reality slapping folks in the face right now. I personally don’t see this style working here and have said that from the beginning. But unlike basketball where I 100% knew his style wouldn’t work here I’m only about 75% confident with the football situation, because there are more dynamics at play. That said, I also want to believe Mason is different and it’s not all just catchy one liners and win the media days. I want to believe there is substance behind his persona and that he can recruit and develop the type of people needed to match his philosophy, but that’s a)going to require recruiting unlike we’ve ever seen or been able to do here and b) definitely going to take time to figure out. Time we don’t really have. And that’s kind of the issue.
Other schools have successfully ran pro-style / pro-style hybrid offenses (WKU did with Brohm).

Recruiting the DUDES for the OL is hard.
 
Other schools have successfully ran pro-style / pro-style hybrid offenses (WKU did with Brohm).

Recruiting the DUDES for the OL is hard.
You’re mixing terms. If you want to call what Brohm did “pro style” ok that’s fine. But he wasn’t lining up with two and three tight ends very often. Brohm used tight ends effectively but mostly by spreading everyone out and throwing the ball 70% of the time. That’s not what Mason is talking about doing here.
 
You’re mixing terms. If you want to call what Brohm did “pro style” ok that’s fine. But he wasn’t lining up with two and three tight ends very often. Brohm used tight ends effectively but mostly by spreading everyone out and throwing the ball 70% of the time. That’s not what Mason is talking about doing here.
I don't think I am.

I'm not just dealing with personnel packages, but with concepts, formations, etc. The whole package.

And yes, the Brohm offense is pro-style (conceptually) with influences mixed in to create this hybrid attack.
 
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You’re mixing terms. If you want to call what Brohm did “pro style” ok that’s fine. But he wasn’t lining up with two and three tight ends very often. Brohm used tight ends effectively but mostly by spreading everyone out and throwing the ball 70% of the time. That’s not what Mason is talking about doing here.
FWIW, "pro-style" doesn't necessarily mean 2/3 TE packages.

And yes, Mason's offense - or what he wants the offense to be (as he talks about it) - is a bit concerning. I'm not sure you can win at MT running what Stanford (high use of 12 / 13 / 21 personnel) ran when Mason was DC. Even his buddy Harbaugh diversified & was a lot of in the last few years with more 11 personnel groups.

But again, it's also HOW you use the personnel. Do you see the TE as another run blocker or a chess piece.
 
Brohm's offense is a modified Air Raid masquerading as a quasi pro-style or using some pro concepts (at best), but the preponderance of the offense isn't using pro concepts. You can call it that all day but at the end of the day, it's a version of the Air Raid.

Pro-style is generally going to use a full back and be under center more than shotgun. This is not Jeff Brohm's offense. Louisville and Purdue before that were 10 and 11 personnel in shotgun almost the entire game each week.
 
When you put up 500+ yards of offense, it's hard to say that the offense was THE problem. Yes, we stubbed our toe and didn't put the #'s on the scoreboard that the stats would indicate that we should have, but to be honest, watching that game I never felt that the offense was the limiting factor.

We need to fine tune on offense, clean and tighten it up, but it's not broken.

Stats are for losers. WKU was playing off and giving us free underneath routes all second half. We racked up a free 50 yards before half time on a bogus play with 3 seconds left that never had any chance of scoring. We hit a few over the top of them too but that's because their secondary has been suspect at best this year. Blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion if you will.

Again, stats are for losers. It's always the losing team looking for silver linings with the box score. You can say we put up 500 yards but there is so much context and nuance in football. The offense failed and couldn't get it done when the chips were on the table. That's what matters. When the game was close we didn't do much, and it wasn't close for very long because of a total failure on defense and mostly failure on offense.
 
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Brohm's offense is a modified Air Raid masquerading as a quasi pro-style or using some pro concepts (at best), but the preponderance of the offense isn't using pro concepts. You can call it that all day but at the end of the day, it's a version of the Air Raid.
Let me be a little blunt.

I am pretty familiar with the origins of Brohm's offense. They watched NFL film when they were working on it. To be sure, there are some spread / AirRaid ideas in there (fwiw, there are AirRaid concepts in pro offenses and pro concepts in the AirRaid).
Pro-style is generally going to use a full back and be under center more than shotgun. This is not Jeff Brohm's offense. Louisville and Purdue before that were 10 and 11 personnel in shotgun almost the entire game each week.
Modern NFL offense was in the gun 66% of the time in 2023.

And 24 of 32 NFL offenses (if I counted right) were in 11p 50% of the time or more in 2021 (the most recent I could find quickly)

The NFL / pro-style offense has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Again, pro-style isn't just about having a FB and under center, but it's conceptual too.
 
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Let me be a little blunt.

I am pretty familiar with the origins of Brohm's offense. They watched NFL film when they were working on it. To be sure, there are some spread / AirRaid ideas in there (fwiw, there are AirRaid concepts in pro offenses and pro concepts in the AirRaid).

Modern NFL offense was in the gun 66% of the time in 2023.

And 24 of 32 NFL offenses (if I counted right) were in 11p 50% of the time or more in 2021 (the most recent I could find quickly)

The NFL / pro-style offense has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Again, pro-style isn't just about having a FB and under center, but it's conceptual too.

A bit of semantics. The NFL has essentially stolen the offensive playbook from CFB and modified it a bit to include some traditional concepts. I'm sure when people are describing something as a "pro-style offense" they are doing so with a traditional connotation (I formation, under center, multiple TE's on the LOS, FB's, etc).

There's little to no difference these days with NFL and the majority of CFB Offenses. A few outliers sure but vast majority all run the same stuff. This is a huge factor that has allowed rookies to come in and be superstars across the board at all positions.
 
A bit of semantics. The NFL has essentially stolen the offensive playbook from CFB and modified it a bit to include some traditional concepts. I'm sure when people are describing something as a "pro-style offense" they are doing so with a traditional connotation (I formation, under center, multiple TE's on the LOS, FB's, etc).

There's little to no difference these days with NFL and the majority of CFB Offenses. A few outliers sure but vast majority all run the same stuff. This is a huge factor that has allowed rookies to come in and be superstars across the board at all positions.
Fair points.

one of the biggest difference between the two (that crosses all boundaries) is complexity. NFL teams carry A LOT more (traditionally)
 
It also doesn’t work in G5 circles unless you’re Boise and can recruit men. There’s a bit of reality slapping folks in the face right now. I personally don’t see this style working here and have said that from the beginning. But unlike basketball where I 100% knew his style wouldn’t work here I’m only about 75% confident with the football situation, because there are more dynamics at play. That said, I also want to believe Mason is different and it’s not all just catchy one liners and win the media days. I want to believe there is substance behind his persona and that he can recruit and develop the type of people needed to match his philosophy, but that’s a)going to require recruiting unlike we’ve ever seen or been able to do here and b) definitely going to take time to figure out. Time we don’t really have. And that’s kind of the issue.

This “leadership” chose a really bad time to lock themselves in a near lifetime contract with a .500 coach and it’s now a really bad time to be taking the time to change philosophy. In three or four years most of the rest of what CFB looks like for the next 50 years is going to be coming into focus if not completely set. We just don’t have time for another failed venture from M&M.
You and I don’t agree much but I don’t disagree with much here. I will say, I don’t think realignment is even close to being done though. I’ve said for a long time Bama and Michigan are going to get tired of getting the same money Vandy and Northwestern get. They will eventually blow everything up. Hopefully we have things ironed out by then but who knows if we do or do not.
 
You and I don’t agree much but I don’t disagree with much here. I will say, I don’t think realignment is even close to being done though. I’ve said for a long time Bama and Michigan are going to get tired of getting the same money Vandy and Northwestern get. They will eventually blow everything up. Hopefully we have things ironed out by then but who knows if we do or do not.
It's 100000% not close to being done. I agree totally there will be a split. Who knows when, I think within the next decade, but it will happen.

CM has always said he wants us in the 2nd level. Right now that is G5. And we are absolutely the bottom conference right now of that 2nd tier. We will stay in that 2nd level unless FBS somehow splits into three. I don't see that happening, but yeah. It is possible.
I wanted MAC. Looking back I realize it was best to stay in CUSA. Without it we'd still have Stock. But I have to admit. There is a lot of me that would feel better right now if we were in a stable conference (and no one is more stable than the MAC) not filled with recent FCS jumps. Not that that is a total bad thing, but I can see conferences like CUSA being the first to be cut if it does become three levels.

So much is up in the air right now. Lawsuits, settlements, CFP. Then you've got the PAC 12 trying to make it G6 a-la P4 lite. Which they 100% are on track to being the best 2nd tier conference. How will that affect the CFP, no one knows. Are the good things we are doing too little too late? Who knows.

I would love for CM and Lee to have a sit down town hall with fans to discuss all this mess. Shine some light on their thoughts. True thoughts, not PR BS. Because MT01 is right. We don't have time to fail again. Our window is small to get FB, MBB, and other things fixed. We have it in pieces like facilities upgrades and NIL, but can't offer the whole package yet.
 
With revenue sharing coming in the next one to two years, that’s gonna be a game changer for a lot of schools and cause a lot more realignment.
 
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You and I don’t agree much but I don’t disagree with much here. I will say, I don’t think realignment is even close to being done though. I’ve said for a long time Bama and Michigan are going to get tired of getting the same money Vandy and Northwestern get. They will eventually blow everything up. Hopefully we have things ironed out by then but who knows if we do or do not.

Glen, one thing you probably haven't learned about me the rest of the board may have figured out is I see the painting on the wall differently. While most everyone else sees oh well x happened, so y must happen next I don't always restrict my thinking to that.

To me the issue is not what's the Pac going to do or ooh Air Force might be going to the AAC or whatever combination someone wants to come up with. What I see is this. 1) No one really knows if there's going to be a split, but I lean toward it not happening especially if the House settlement goes through. Primarily because its the hardest path to take and look how long it took us just to get a playoff. That took decades. 2) If the settlement falls through then all bets are off. Probably ends the NCAA and we some sort of major split.

So, this issue for me isn't about whether realignment is over or not. And as I have said for 20 years it's not really realignment or expansion it's contraction. So, where's the contraction going to happen? Well, it's been happening before our very eyes and the next moves are too difficult to predict, but let's say settlement is reached. That is the most likely as it is status quo. In that scenario, the first thing is schools like Vandy and NW won't be kicked out of their leagues. Not a viable option because the power schools in the power conferences are accepting the NCAA as the structure for the governing body. Second, schools will have to decide how much they want to pay players and conferences are probably going to have to agree to some degree of consistency. I mean you can't really have one school in a conference paying the full amount while another pays a fraction of that.

I'm not saying this is going to happen but its very easy for me to see something like four power leagues and four non-power leagues. In such a scenario C-USA and the MWC probably don't exist anymore. If you're stuck in this league at that moment in time - which is very plausible for us you're kicked out of FBS. And I can legitimately see western getting inside and us being left on the outside because of the awful mismanagement of this university. This is why I'm concerned. That or something like that happening. So, you can talk about more moves happening, but that's not really issue and the presumed opportunity may not develop, because of the prospect that contraction opens up better options just like the ACC adding western teams instead of Memphis or USF or AAC inviting Air Force instead of somone like us or from the SBC. Make no mistake this is a game of musical chairs and some schools aren't going to have one when the music stops. If that happens tomorrow there's a 99% chance MT is f'd. And there most certainly isn't a lot of time to course correct.

So, to your point no one has any confidence in this administration having things ironed out. They've had 20 years and even the move to C-USA was bothced.
 
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