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BASKETBALL If it comes down to MT vying for an At-large bid...?

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Matt Dossett

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May 14, 2016
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Who are the other bubble watch teams that MT will be jockeying with..?IYO obviously...

I think Vanderbilt CAN play their way into contention if they make a run in the SEC tournament. Lunardi has them first team out. Surely the committee would do the eye test and see that MT wrecked them.

Who after that?
 
It's really too early to know. Tournament results will play a huge factor. Keep an eye on the MVC. Illinois State and Wichita State are both tourney quality teams but many pundits don't know how the MVC can get two bids. I don't see how the committee could leave either team out personally. Both Illinois State and Wichita State are amazing teams.

Vermont is another one with an incredible record that would be on the bubble if they lose in conference tournament. I feel like the NCAA would screw them just because they know they can, however; if Vermont can't win the pathetic American East conference tournament, do they really belong in the NCAA tournament?? VCU looks safe right now but could easily find themselves on the bubble with an early loss in the tournament. Rhode Island is doing everything they can to make a case right now, but will probably still need to win tournament.

There's also a whole host of Power 5 teams who could play their way in. Too many to name. The Blue Bloods (Syracuse, Mich St., etc.) always seem to do just enough to get in when on the bubble (or at least the committee always finds a way to justify their inclusion), so we'll see. Still a ton of basketball to be played.

At the end of the day, we need to focus on us. In reality, if we can't win the CUSA tournament (one of the crappiest leagues in D-1 basketball), do we really deserve to be in the NCAA tournament? The competition is much steeper in the NCAA tournament, so why even bother if we can't win CUSA tournament? That's how I look at it.
 
sWiley said:
It's really too early to know. Tournament results will play a huge factor. Keep an eye on the MVC. Illinois State and Wichita State are both tourney quality teams but many pundits don't know how the MVC can get two bids. I don't see how the committee could leave either team out personally. Both Illinois State and Wichita State are amazing teams.

Vermont is another one with an incredible record that would be on the bubble if they lose in conference tournament. I feel like the NCAA would screw them just because they know they can, however; if Vermont can't win the pathetic American East conference tournament, do they really belong in the NCAA tournament?? VCU looks safe right now but could easily find themselves on the bubble with an early loss in the tournament. Rhode Island is doing everything they can to make a case right now, but will probably still need to win tournament.

There's also a whole host of Power 5 teams who could play their way in. Too many to name. The Blue Bloods (Syracuse, Mich St., etc.) always seem to do just enough to get in when on the bubble (or at least the committee always finds a way to justify their inclusion), so we'll see. Still a ton of basketball to be played.

At the end of the day, we need to focus on us. In reality, if we can't win the CUSA tournament (one of the crappiest leagues in D-1 basketball), do we really deserve to be in the NCAA tournament? The competition is much steeper in the NCAA tournament, so why even bother if we can't win CUSA tournament? That's how I look at it.
Click to expand...
Good stuff! Very in depth!
 
Good teams can still fumble. The tournament is always a place for at least a couple upsets and the CUSA tourney is no exception. In fact, I don't expect that MT will go through Birmingham unscathed. We are a great team, no doubt, but we aren't immune to losing when you have THE target on your back.

It would be unfortunate if we were to win out the rest of the season and slip up in a tournament. It makes the regular season irrelevant. But it would be terrible if we were left out of the Dance. UTEP is strong. La Tech is strong. Do we really want to go against UAB again?

I have coached 0-10 teams that somehow knock off a powerhouse. I have been on the other side of that too where you are matched against a team with a losing record and you have a powerhouse of a team, only to have a dry day coupled with a whole lot of luck. Easily humbled. It happens.

Our body of work has spoken. It shouldn't depend on the tournament.

sWiley said:
It's really too early to know. Tournament results will play a huge factor. Keep an eye on the MVC. Illinois State and Wichita State are both tourney quality teams but many pundits don't know how the MVC can get two bids. I don't see how the committee could leave either team out personally. Both Illinois State and Wichita State are amazing teams.

Vermont is another one with an incredible record that would be on the bubble if they lose in conference tournament. I feel like the NCAA would screw them just because they know they can, however; if Vermont can't win the pathetic American East conference tournament, do they really belong in the NCAA tournament?? VCU looks safe right now but could easily find themselves on the bubble with an early loss in the tournament. Rhode Island is doing everything they can to make a case right now, but will probably still need to win tournament.

There's also a whole host of Power 5 teams who could play their way in. Too many to name. The Blue Bloods (Syracuse, Mich St., etc.) always seem to do just enough to get in when on the bubble (or at least the committee always finds a way to justify their inclusion), so we'll see. Still a ton of basketball to be played.

At the end of the day, we need to focus on us. In reality, if we can't win the CUSA tournament (one of the crappiest leagues in D-1 basketball), do we really deserve to be in the NCAA tournament? The competition is much steeper in the NCAA tournament, so why even bother if we can't win CUSA tournament? That's how I look at it.
Click to expand...
 
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I agree johndavidblue. Bball is like that a lot more than football. I think we have done enough if we lose in the championship game.
 
subkyle said:
I agree johndavidblue. Bball is like that a lot more than football. I think we have done enough if we lose in the championship game.
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I think MT definitely deserves to be in if they lose in conference title. There will be a ton of tension waiting for the committee to decide MT's fate. Seems they tend to lean with the fringe teams in the bigger conferences
 
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Exactly Space. This time of the year, it's all about momentum and getting hot and getting on a roll. Teams that do well in the NCAA tournament are teams that come in hot and with big win streaks.

If we don't win the CUSA tournament but still somehow manage a bid, I guarantee it'll be a play-in game and we'll get our tails whipped in it for the same reason we lost in the CUSA tournament (because we weren't hot).

If the Blue Raiders are going to make any noise in the NCAA tournament, it's going to start with winning the CUSA tournament.
 
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Obviously we have to aim to cut the nets in Birmingham. My worry is that with all of the at large bid discussion among fans and pundits is that the "what if they lose in the conference tournament?" talk ultimately becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It will be up to the team to look past all of that and block out the noise.

Let's win this weekend first and then tourney talk will be full steam ahead.
 
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I think we're all hoping to win the next 11 games, but I'm guessing we get in if we get to the championship game in CUSA.

Something is telling me we will be ready when we get to the big dance. I feel like Upshaw is the piece that keeps the team focused. He has that super competitive yet even keel personality.
 
I think you guys should get at large bid as long as you don't lose to a really terrible team which C-USA is full of. Can't lose the last regular season game and my god if you had lost the last game it been over. You guys are a nice 4-1 vs top 100 RPI but a few bad losses is hurting you. Winning over Vandy and at Ole Miss should be feathers in your cap and if it came down to you and Vandy you should get in I think.

Vandy loses to Florida they are done in fact they might be done anyway. No team has ever got an at large bid with 15 losses and Vandy has 14 right now so they will end the year with either 15 or 16 losses if they are to be at large bid.

They could be the first 15 loss team I guess if they sweep Florida and win the 1st SEC game. I don't know but their non conf SOS is carrying them.

Syracuse vs Ga Teach is a double bubble game. Winner might be in loser might be out.

Illinois is back in the discussion now with a win over MSU.

Wake Forest win over Louisville puts them right there.

USC and Cal are on bubble USC likely in and Cal likely out as of today.

Illinois St has less chance to get at large then Wichita St so root for Wichita St

Rhode Island is right there and Iowa might be if they win this weekend.

Kansas St and TCU I think both should be out if they don't make deep runs.
 
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I think the bubble will change a lot in the next week. With the money conferences playing their tournaments, a lot of teams will be allowed to "play their way in."
 
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Vandy winning today has to both help and hurt MT chances. Helps since you beat them hurts since it keeps them alive.
 
Win the CUSA automatic bid and all is well. Lose in B'ham, expect a play in bid with St. Mary's in Dayton. It is what it is. The power conference pigs are gonna feed at the trough and have the juice to get it all their way,
 
St. Mary's won't be in no play-in game this year. They're gonna get a great seed.
 
So, MT cracks Top 25. If P5 team is Top 25, bubble would most likely not even be a discussion.

Looking at P5 teams who are 24 25 or 26 in Coaches & AP polls, most projections rightly have those teams around 6 or 7 seeds. Then there's MT at same ranking with a consensus projection of 11 seed.

I'm not going to be down on the Blue Raiders for losing one game every once in a blue moon. I will be down on the bogus system that is stacked against the Blue Raiders and similarly situated teams and conferences. There is little doubt of a rigged system when it comes to the P5 and most others.

Of course I'm hoping the Blue Raiders are red hot and dominate the conf tourney to remove all doubt.
 
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