FIU doesn't need to lose twice. We could enter a three way tie with FIU and either one of FAU or Marshall.
I do not know what all the ins and outs of the tiebreakers and don't care to research it, because I don't believe we'll win out.
Theoretically we shouldn't need Brent to get to through Charlotte, ODU, Western and UTEP, but a win over UAB without Brent seems unlikely.
At any rate, if we hosted the CCG, I would expect no more than 15k in attendance.