ESPN CUSA Projections

[ewglenn]

A couple of breaks away from a run:​

Middle Tennessee State University

Head coach: Derek Mason (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 125th in SP+ (130th offense, 109th defense), 5.3 average wins, 3.5 conference wins

In a word, Derek Mason's first year succeeding Rick Stockstill at MTSU was horrendous. The Blue Raiders ranked 131st in SP+ (131st on offense, 122nd on defense) and only finished 3-9 because they won all three of their games that were decided by single digits. Their nine losses came by an average score of 41-17. The passing game was decent, the defense was sporadically able to bend without breaking, and lots of freshmen got experience, especially in the trenches. But Mason, the former Vanderbilt head coach, wasn't able to come up with many answers, even if MTSU did operate pretty well in the rare tight game. (Vandy was decent in those situations under Mason, too.) Things felt mostly hopeless.

I'm admittedly not making this sound like a "couple of breaks away" team, am I? Well, that probably says something about how many particularly iffy teams CUSA seems to have this season. But it also says something about what MTSU returns. In a conference full of poor returning production numbers, the Blue Raiders rank a solid 46th nationally, and fourth in CUSA, behind only a team with a new head coach (Kennesaw State) and the two FBS newcomers. Mason brought back both coordinators -- Bodie Reeder on offense, Brian Stewart on defense -- and the Blue Raiders return a solid and experienced quarterback (Nicholas Vattiato), a pair of disruptive defensive tackles (Shakai Woods and Damonte Smith, who combined for 11.5 TFLs and 20 run stops), and a potential all-conference safety in John Howse IV. Mason also found some potential portal gems in running back Rickey Hunt Jr. (Ohio), receiver Amorion Walker (Michigan) and 6-foot-7 tackle Jacob Otts(Rhode Island).

Defensively, I honestly expected a few more transfers. Mason brought in three transfers and two JUCOs in the secondary but mostly let it ride with the front six. Maybe that will pay off if Woods and another promising sophomore, end Anthony Bynum, keep developing. But if a unit takes a bit step forward in 2025, I'm guessing it will be the offense. Regardless, MTSU has a level of continuity and experience that others in the CUSA don't have; maybe that pays off.

Conference USA preview: Liberty is early favorite but contenders abound

The Flames are the team to beat, but Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State (among others) can't be counted out.

www.espn.com

 

[RaiderDoug]

I think we'll have a better 2nd year under Mason that first - not that that would be too hard to do as bad as last year was.

But if you follow the recruiting, we've added talent. We have some continuity on the staff. We have both quality and experience in the games most important position - QB.

It's also not exactly a difficult schedule, no Liberty and the only real conference road heavyweight on the sched will be WKU. The OOC is as soft as I've ever seen with with beatable foes in Marshall (disarray), Nevada (don't know a thing about them) and APSU and even Wisconsin is not the typical P5 juggernaut we usually face.

IMHO, 6-7 wins is the target, along with no blowouts and that will show progress. Continue to stack talent and recruiting/portal classes, and make a title run in 2026.

 

[mtfblue]

A couple of breaks away from a run:​

Middle Tennessee State University

Head coach: Derek Mason (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 125th in SP+ (130th offense, 109th defense), 5.3 average wins, 3.5 conference wins

In a word, Derek Mason's first year succeeding Rick Stockstill at MTSU was horrendous. The Blue Raiders ranked 131st in SP+ (131st on offense, 122nd on defense) and only finished 3-9 because they won all three of their games that were decided by single digits. Their nine losses came by an average score of 41-17. The passing game was decent, the defense was sporadically able to bend without breaking, and lots of freshmen got experience, especially in the trenches. But Mason, the former Vanderbilt head coach, wasn't able to come up with many answers, even if MTSU did operate pretty well in the rare tight game. (Vandy was decent in those situations under Mason, too.) Things felt mostly hopeless.

I'm admittedly not making this sound like a "couple of breaks away" team, am I? Well, that probably says something about how many particularly iffy teams CUSA seems to have this season. But it also says something about what MTSU returns. In a conference full of poor returning production numbers, the Blue Raiders rank a solid 46th nationally, and fourth in CUSA, behind only a team with a new head coach (Kennesaw State) and the two FBS newcomers. Mason brought back both coordinators -- Bodie Reeder on offense, Brian Stewart on defense -- and the Blue Raiders return a solid and experienced quarterback (Nicholas Vattiato), a pair of disruptive defensive tackles (Shakai Woods and Damonte Smith, who combined for 11.5 TFLs and 20 run stops), and a potential all-conference safety in John Howse IV. Mason also found some potential portal gems in running back Rickey Hunt Jr. (Ohio), receiver Amorion Walker (Michigan) and 6-foot-7 tackle Jacob Otts(Rhode Island).

Defensively, I honestly expected a few more transfers. Mason brought in three transfers and two JUCOs in the secondary but mostly let it ride with the front six. Maybe that will pay off if Woods and another promising sophomore, end Anthony Bynum, keep developing. But if a unit takes a bit step forward in 2025, I'm guessing it will be the offense. Regardless, MTSU has a level of continuity and experience that others in the CUSA don't have; maybe that pays off.

Conference USA preview: Liberty is early favorite but contenders abound

The Flames are the team to beat, but Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State (among others) can't be counted out.

www.espn.com

T

They could bring in more defensive help, there are still guys in the portal.

 

[RaiderDoug]

They could bring in more defensive help, there are still guys in the portal.

There's a ton of names still in the portal.

Some of those guys might be waiting for a spot to open up somewhere bigger (maybe they're hoping some kid at Alabama pops a knee) or something like that, but they will eventually need some place to play.

It would be smart if we kept 3-4 spots open for guys like this.