Could Ted Cruz win both Iowa and New Hampshire?
Mark Whittington
Houston Ted Cruz Examiner
January 4, 2016 5:25 AM MST
Republican presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz officially filed the paperwork to run in the New Hampshire primary on Thursday. He's the first of three candidates expected to file papers on Thursday, ahead of a November 20th deadline.
With Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas seemingly assured of winning the Iowa Caucuses, his campaign for president has turned its attention to a state where hitherto he had not been expected to do well in, New Hampshire, according to a Sunday story on CBS News. The campaign is using the same strategy, ground game organization backed by scientific analysis to boost that candidate’s chances in a state that often punishes the winner in Iowa. Political observers suggest that a close second in New Hampshire would be spectacular for Cruz. A victory, due to unique circumstances now shaping up, is not outside the realm of possibility.
Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images
“It might seem implausible that the Iowa frontrunner -- a conservative firebrand with strong support among evangelicals -- is stepping up his efforts in the mostly secular, moderate-leaning state of New Hampshire, where establishment candidates like Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are planting their flags.
“But a unique set of circumstances -- the splintering of establishment support during a time of populist fervor -- has paved the way for Cruz to possibly steal a higher than expected finish in New Hampshire, a prospect that seemed unthinkable at the outset of the campaign. And conservatives have been dropping in the polls and leaving the race, so Cruz is hoping there's an opening on the right for him.”
The scenario is based on the idea that if Cruz beats Trump in Iowa, as the polls suggest that he will, the air will be let out of the mercurial businessman’s campaign. Then the New Hampshire contest will be a matter of Cruz vs. establishment candidates such as Bush, Christie, and Marco Rubio. With the moderate vote split between two or more candidates, Cruz could do well.
Of course, as the Dallas Morning News suggests, all this depends on winning Iowa. A loss to Trump or even a narrow win would likely have a detrimental effect on Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.
On the other hand, a big win in Iowa followed by a good showing or even a win in New Hampshire might make Cruz unstoppable. The primary contests that follow occur in a lot of southern states, where the Cruz campaign has already done a lot of battlefield preparation. Then, as Cruz once predicted, it might all be over by March.
Mark Whittington
Houston Ted Cruz Examiner
January 4, 2016 5:25 AM MST
Republican presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz officially filed the paperwork to run in the New Hampshire primary on Thursday. He's the first of three candidates expected to file papers on Thursday, ahead of a November 20th deadline.
With Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas seemingly assured of winning the Iowa Caucuses, his campaign for president has turned its attention to a state where hitherto he had not been expected to do well in, New Hampshire, according to a Sunday story on CBS News. The campaign is using the same strategy, ground game organization backed by scientific analysis to boost that candidate’s chances in a state that often punishes the winner in Iowa. Political observers suggest that a close second in New Hampshire would be spectacular for Cruz. A victory, due to unique circumstances now shaping up, is not outside the realm of possibility.
Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images
“It might seem implausible that the Iowa frontrunner -- a conservative firebrand with strong support among evangelicals -- is stepping up his efforts in the mostly secular, moderate-leaning state of New Hampshire, where establishment candidates like Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are planting their flags.
“But a unique set of circumstances -- the splintering of establishment support during a time of populist fervor -- has paved the way for Cruz to possibly steal a higher than expected finish in New Hampshire, a prospect that seemed unthinkable at the outset of the campaign. And conservatives have been dropping in the polls and leaving the race, so Cruz is hoping there's an opening on the right for him.”
The scenario is based on the idea that if Cruz beats Trump in Iowa, as the polls suggest that he will, the air will be let out of the mercurial businessman’s campaign. Then the New Hampshire contest will be a matter of Cruz vs. establishment candidates such as Bush, Christie, and Marco Rubio. With the moderate vote split between two or more candidates, Cruz could do well.
Of course, as the Dallas Morning News suggests, all this depends on winning Iowa. A loss to Trump or even a narrow win would likely have a detrimental effect on Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.
On the other hand, a big win in Iowa followed by a good showing or even a win in New Hampshire might make Cruz unstoppable. The primary contests that follow occur in a lot of southern states, where the Cruz campaign has already done a lot of battlefield preparation. Then, as Cruz once predicted, it might all be over by March.
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