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BASKETBALL College Basketball 5-Year Rolling Average Rankings (Updated for 2017)

RandallThomason

Blue Raider Legend
Jan 1, 2005
20,990
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Last year I began tracking a 5-year weighted rolling average to rank all Division 1 college basketball teams to try to get a picture of our overall standing in the sport with a wider lens to look through than just the most recently completed season.

Essentially, the formula I use ranks teams based on their regular season performance in each of the past five seasons, and then applies bonus points based on NCAA/NIT appearances and results. The most recently completed season is weighted the highest, with descending weights applied for each season in the last five years. Total max score is 240 (virtually impossible to obtain). For this rankings period, the oldest season under consideration is the 2012-13 season.

At the end of last year, for the 5-year window spanning the 2011-12 season through the 2015-16 season, we ranked 71st nationally. For this most recent 5-year rankings period, our 2012 NIT team is no longer under consideration and we have stacked in its place a second season featuring an NCAA Tournament win. That allowed us to climb 20 spots to 51st nationally in this most recent 5-year rankings period.

Below are some excerpts of the rankings. I always like to measure us against other C-USA schools, other G-5 conference schools (i.e. non-Power conference schools that also play FBS football), and other schools in the state of Tennessee.

Here is the breakdown:

National Top 25 (2012-2016 Rank in Parentheses):
1) North Carolina (5)
2) Kentucky (1)
3) Gonzaga (14)
4) Wisconsin (2)
5) Villanova (6)
6) Duke (3)
7) Oregon (19)
8) Kansas (8)
9) Louisville (4)
10) Michigan State (7)
11) Arizona (10)
12) Florida (15)
13) Virginia (13)
14) Wichita State (12)
15) Syracuse (9)
16) Michigan (17)
17) Oklahoma (11)
18) Notre Dame (18)
19) Xavier (24)
20) Iowa State (21)
21) Baylor (23)
22) Connecticut (16)
23) West Virginia (32)
24) UCLA (30)
25) Butler (39)

MT ranks 51st nationally, just ahead of Georgetown and just behind Texas A&M.

C-USA rankings (national ranking in parentheses):
1) Middle Tennessee (51)
2) Louisiana Tech (106)
3) UAB (120)
4) Old Dominion (139)
5) UTEP (165)
6) Western Kentucky (167)
7) Charlotte (193)
8) Marshall (210)
9) FIU (252)
10) Southern Miss (259)
11) Rice (266)
12) FAU (298)
13) UTSA (299)
14) North Texas (302)

State of Tennessee Rankings (National ranking in parentheses):
1) Middle Tennessee (51)
2) Vanderbilt (54)
3) Tennessee (66)
4) Memphis (70)
5) Belmont (84)
6) East Tennessee State (137)
7) Chattanooga (151)
8) Tennessee State (241)
9) Tennessee Tech (251)
10) Austin Peay (253)
11) UT-Martin (257)
12) Lipscomb (269)

G-5 Top 20 Rankings (National ranking in parentheses):
1) Connecticut (22)
2) Cincinnati (28)
3) San Diego State (37)
4) SMU (40)
5) Middle Tennessee (51)
6) BYU (55)
7) New Mexico State (58)
8) Memphis (70)
9) Temple (75)
10) Boise State (79)
11) Tulsa (80)
12) Colorado State (87)
13) New Mexico (90)
14) Buffalo (93)
15) Georgia State (102)
16) Akron (105)
17) Louisiana Tech (106)
18) Houston (111)
19) Fresno State (113)
20) Nevada (114)
 
A few other tidbits of analysis from these rankings:

Much has been discussed on the board regarding the status of C-USA hoops. It's no secret the league has declined in recent years, but I wanted to try to quantify it somehow on an individual school level. I took the current C-USA membership and compared each school's standing in the 2008-2012 rankings period and the 2013-2017 rankings period to see comparative rankings that span the last 10 years.

Team (2008-2012 ranking, 2013-2017 ranking, +/- ranking positions)

Louisiana Tech (215, 106, +109)
Middle Tennessee (132, 51, +81)
FIU (280, 252, +28)
Charlotte (161, 193, -32)
Rice (228, 266, -38)
UAB (76, 120, -44)
FAU (225, 298, -73)
ODU (64, 139, -75)
UTEP (88, 165, -77)
Marshall (119, 210, -91)
WKU (69, 167, -98)
UTSA (166, 299, -133)
North Texas (144, 302, -158)
Southern Miss (87, 259, -172)

So individual C-USA schools declined by an average 55 ranking spots over the last 5 seasons. Only Louisiana Tech, MT, and FIU improved their position over the last 5 years, and FIU's "improvement" basically can be summed up by going from "dreadful" to "slightly less dreadful". UAB, ODU, UTEP, WKU, and Southern Miss all have left the ranks of the top 100 programs.

If you compare just the rankings from the 2012-16 rankings period to the 2013-2017 rankings period, only 2 C-USA teams improved their position with their performance this past season (MT improved by 20 spots and Rice improved by 14 spots). All other schools declined, and four of them declined by more than 20 spots.
 
I'm not sure what to take from that, except MT and CKD took advantage of the momentum he built in the last years of the Sun Belt and took a step ahead of the field in entering CUSA. Those that there were left behind when memphis, and others left suffered from the lack of association with the better known programs that left, because they had benefitted from being in the same conference with better known basketball programs.

Not sure what the reason is for UAB's drop is, maybe coaching changes. UTEP is a mystery as well. It appears Tim Floyd is just not a good match for the program and needs to move on. He recruits well, but I don't think he pays attention to character and coachability as Kermit has learned to do.
 
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