Defense has been okay despite some bad fouls and lapses. They have to get the PNR defense with Mostafa figured out. He's not dropping and the help isnt down low so idk what the strategy is there. Ohio is 43% from the floor and 20% from 3. I would not expect that to sustain.

Like that they are trying to lean on Porter as an offensive force. 8 FGAs when no other Raider has more than 4 feels about right. Mostafa's rebounding came along late in the 1st, will need more in the 2nd.

Say what you will with all the bad baggage that Weston brings, but he leads the team in +/- with +6. No one else is better than +2. Cam has a first step and creativity with the ball that is pretty special for this level. Yea the out-of-control episodes, the bad body language, the defensive lapses, etc brings him back to this level, but Nick's either refusal or inability to bring in another player that looks to pass as much as Weston does remains the problem. I like Counter, and I liked that he started over Weston today, but hes the long lost floor general we have been looking for since Donovan Sims graduated.

Missed too many close up shots, but a much better overall effort. Played a ton of different players in first half.

Team Comparison

Half

32-31 MT leads

MT has 6 fouls to Ohio's none at 11:40 mark

Counter starting, not Weston?

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OliverLBaltz said:

HC Jeff Boals' worst opponent 3p% ranking in his 5-career is 192nd. While I imagine their 3-point defense hasnt been good, I think their current 364th rank is a lot more likely to be a product of small sample size, as well as the volatility and variance (dumb luck) that can come with 3-point shooting at the college level.

Even if my thought is inaccurate, Middle is 26% from 3 on the year (22% vs D1s, 358th in the country). They are 25% from 3 the 2 times they have played Ohio in these thanksgiving tournaments. They are 28% from 3 in McDevitt's tenure when playing in MTEs. If there is data suggesting a weakness for Ohio, there is a lot more data suggesting they are not equipped to exploit it. I think Middle is a better shooting team than they have shot so far but by golly they have to prove it.

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I’d say my thoughts of making it a key to the game is more of an indictment on our poor 3 point shooting. Small sample size for both teams, agreed. In my eyes, something has to give.

I’d also add that since 2020, over 40% of our shot attempts have come from 3 (except 36% in 2023). Through 4 games, we’re at 30% — would be the lowest in McD’s tenure. That would imply we’re not shooting the three enough… Oglesby can’t get healthy fast enough.

HC Jeff Boals' worst opponent 3p% ranking in his 5-career is 192nd. While I imagine their 3-point defense hasnt been good, I think their current 364th rank is a lot more likely to be a product of small sample size, as well as the volatility and variance (dumb luck) that can come with 3-point shooting at the college level.

Even if my thought is inaccurate, Middle is 26% from 3 on the year (22% vs D1s, 358th in the country). They are 25% from 3 the 2 times they have played Ohio in these thanksgiving tournaments. They are 28% from 3 in McDevitt's tenure when playing in MTEs. If there is data suggesting a weakness for Ohio, there is a lot more data suggesting they are not equipped to exploit it. I think Middle is a better shooting team than they have shot so far but by golly they have to prove it.

I do think a rebounding advantage is more valid data and a clear tangible advantage MTSU can capitalize. Was Ohio's clear weakness last year as well ranking in the bottom 50 of the country. Raiders grabbed 12 ORebs against Evansville, who is a worse team but fits a similar profile to Ohio.

Personally, i dont have a great feeling about the game. Probably not what the fans want to hear but I just think Ohio is going to play very inspired after losing their first 3 of 4. They are the legitimate MAC favorites. Boals has never had below .500 season at Ohio and is coming off a 20-win season in which they return most of their main pieces. I think Middle can win if they play inspired, but i think thats still TBD. I was really impressed with the effort against ACU and then disappointed days later against Evansville. How hard they fight against Ohio after getting embarrassed by Murray State should tell us a lot about how determined this team actually is.

A lot of really good mid-major programs on display at this years’ Myrtle Beach Invitational. CUSA’s Liberty won this tournament last year against a good crop including Furman, Wichita State, and Vermont. There is another healthy amount of Conference favorites in this field, too.

Ohio is the preseason favorite out of the MAC. Although they’ve had a sluggish start to their season (1-3), a big reason is MAC 1st-team Shereef Mitchell has not played the last 2 games for undisclosed reasons. It’s clear the Bobcats are missing his 13 ppg and senior presence at PG.

Sophomore AJ Brown has been a stud (#3, 6’4” G) with 14 ppg on a 61% eFG and 47% 3FG. He has great size at the wing position, but has had a turnover problem in the early season. Iowa State transfer Jackson Paveletzke (#13, 6’2” G) is capable of being a game changer with his 3.3 ast/game but his 1 A/TO would indicate he could also be a liability.

Senior AJ Clayton (#23, 6’8” C) is their best big and will play a lot of minutes at the five. I believe the duo of Loofe and Mostafa could hopefully wear down their thin front court.

Ohio has been very bad defensively, the worst 3P FG defense in the country in fact. They’re also the 4th worst in eFG% defense in the country. Admittedly a small sample size but they’ve played 3 teams that are considered “underdogs” and won just 1 (82-76 vs UNC-Asheville). They are also a very bad rebounding team. Bottom 100 in total boards through 4 games because of the thin front court (Clayton and Aidan Hadaway #10, 6’8” are the only two significant minutes played at the 4/5). First key: will somebody hit threes?! We are going to get many opportunities. Every game this season Ohio has allowed double-digit 3PM. We have not made more than 6 against a D1 opponent and are one of the worst in the country in 3PM. Secondly, dominant the boards like you’re supposed to. We are one of the better rebounding teams in the tournament and you’re going against the worst in your first matchup. Set a tone and limit extra possessions (that means turnovers too, which is always a key for this team).

TrueBlue147 said:

I'm not sure he has won a single game in one of these tournaments.

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Baha Mar Hoops Nassau (2023): 1-2

Northern Classic (2022): 3-0

Cancun Classic (2021): 2-1

Gulf Coast Showcase (2020): 0-2

Myrtle Beach Invitational (2019): 0-3

Battle 4 Atlantis (2018): 0-3

altshauf said:

Jekyl and Hyde is how it seemed against Murray State. Make no mistake, up until the last half against MSU we have looked good this season. I’m not totally off the bandwagon just yet. Counter has looked really good consistently. Mustafa has really caused problems with his size and strength until MSU also, but was exposed due to their athleticism. With Porter and Westin I’m not ready to throw in the towel. I’m not saying I’m 100% on board or off. I’m just saying it’s too early.

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Huh? Down by 14 at the half and gave up almost half a hundred (in both halves). They played ok for about the first 10 minutes in this game and then got dominated and exposed for what they really are.

How could you have ever been on the bandwagon going into this after all the evidence you have over the past six years?

Jekyl and Hyde is how it seemed against Murray State. Make no mistake, up until the last half against MSU we have looked good this season. I’m not totally off the bandwagon just yet. Counter has looked really good consistently. Mustafa has really caused problems with his size and strength until MSU also, but was exposed due to their athleticism. With Porter and Westin I’m not ready to throw in the towel. I’m not saying I’m 100% on board or off. I’m just saying it’s too early.

MTFAN61 said:

Great win for UNI. They shot the lights out. Kudo's for Iowa St agreeing to a home & home with a quality mid-major program.

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Props to them. Bet this won’t help MTSU chances with trying to get teams back to the Boro tho 😅😅

sWiley said:

37% against a 1-3 MAC team

Man. This program truly has collapsed. Every ounce of credibility and respect that Kermit Davis brought to MT Basketball has vanished. Poof. Gone.

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Ohio -1.5

surprised it is not much more.

Shayne_Pickering said:

Top-10 Iowa State has been upset by Northern Iowa. Matchup against MTSU coming soon

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Great win for UNI. They shot the lights out. Kudo's for Iowa St agreeing to a home & home with a quality mid-major program.

sWiley said:

I was talking about how thin he is. He looks extremely underweight to play FBS football. Watch his HUDL and look how thin he is. Maybe 155 pounds dripping wet.

Good height and he can play ball but I don't think coaches look for developmental guys like him much anymore. They want players who could potentially play right away or maybe 1 year away max. It's interesting how quickly the landscape has changed. Nobody wants developmental guys anymore.

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Especially in the situation this team is in, yep. True freshman Jackson Lowe is the only outside corner that is on the roster right now that is eligible to be here past 2025 season

Shayne_Pickering said:

He's 6'3 with a 6'8 wingspan. he is definitely light if you mean that but I think he would've been a developmental guy either way. They do have a need for guys that contribute the year after next tho so I could see that coming into play for sure

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I was talking about how thin he is. He looks extremely underweight to play FBS football. Watch his HUDL and look how thin he is. Maybe 155 pounds dripping wet.

Good height and he can play ball but I don't think coaches look for developmental guys like him much anymore. They want players who could potentially play right away or maybe 1 year away max. It's interesting how quickly the landscape has changed. Nobody wants developmental guys anymore.