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Realignment...here we go again

MidTennMtneer

MidTennMtneer

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Nov 13, 2013
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This doesn't surprise me. Last I read the P12 couldn't get a deal and schools are becoming restless. B12 is ready to jump, Stanford doesn't care, OU and UW want B10 but probably won't happen with Warren gone.

If this story is accurate I'm really surprised some of the current P12 schools are ok with half their games being streamed only.

P12 commish already visited SDSU (brand new stadium mind you) and is visiting SMU today. AAC was actually thinking ahead taking Rice and UNT. Lose Houston and SMU and still keep the same markets. (Not that that matters much anymore)

www.cbssports.com

Pac-12 expansion with San Diego State, SMU may be necessary before league inks new media rights deal

The Aztecs and Mustangs are in the Pac-12's sights as their top expansion contenders
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
Just to illuminate how inept our leadership has been, there have been at least seven G5 schools move up to P5 in the past 10 to 15 years, and we aren't even on the radar for going back to the Sun Belt. We've been passed over multiple times and gotten one invite that turned out to be fools gold.

I count Utah, Louisville, TCU, BYU, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati. If you add SDSU and SMU that's nine schools living the dream.
 
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MT01 said:
Just to illuminate how inept our leadership has been, there have been at least seven G5 schools move up to P5 in the past 10 to 15 years, and we aren't even on the radar for going back to the Sun Belt. We've been past over multiple times and gotten one invite that turned out to be fools gold.

I count Utah, Louisville, TCU, BYU, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati. If you add SDSU and SMU that's nine schools living the dream.
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I'd throw in the P6 argument too. Yeah it's P5 (I hate that term) but $ wise AAC is a huge jump.

We have an $800k per year media deal. On par (in some instances better) than MAC and SBC. The AAC is at over $6m per year.

So add UNCC, UNT, Rice, UAB, UTSA, and FAU that have passed us over too.

And it isn't like SMU is a huge school. Old stadium and I didn't know they don't play baseball either.
 
MidTennMtneer said:
I'd throw in the P6 argument too. Yeah it's P5 (I hate that term) but $ wise AAC is a huge jump.

We have an $800k per year media deal. On par (in some instances better) than MAC and SBC. The AAC is at over $6m per year.

So add UNCC, UNT, Rice, UAB, UTSA, and FAU that have passed us over too.

And it isn't like SMU is a huge school. Old stadium and I didn't know they don't play baseball either.
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AAC wont keep that money from payouts, SMU stadium opened in 2000and they are about to remodel and expand. https://www.smu.edu/ignited/news/gifts/weber-end-zone-complex-jan-2022
 
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mtfblue said:
AAC wont keep that money from payouts, SMU stadium opened in 2000and they are about to remodel and expand. https://www.smu.edu/ignited/news/gifts/weber-end-zone-complex-jan-2022
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Good call out on the upgrades at SMU.

No doubt the next AAC deal won't be that. Playoff participants will shape the next deal. If thr AAC holds on to that 6th champ spot like they have the NY6 bowl, then the new deal will still command more than the MAC, SBC, MWC, or CUSA. Current deal is good through 31-32 season.
 
MidTennMtneer said:
Good call out on the upgrades at SMU.

No doubt the next AAC deal won't be that. Playoff participants will shape the next deal. If thr AAC holds on to that 6th champ spot like they have the NY6 bowl, then the new deal will still command more than the MAC, SBC, MWC, or CUSA. Current deal is good through 31-32 season.
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Who will command that spot in the AAC? The new teams will drag them down and be less attractive to TV. Mountain West is right behind them with about 4 million a team. You lose your Top 3 teams that have owned that NY6 spot. I see a one of the other G5's making runs, hopefully Stock gets his stuff together and makes a run.
 
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crposton said:
The Sun Belt may be a better football conference than the new AAC will be.
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I bought (and upgraded) my season tickets to the school in the west last month but not crazy about playing Bethune-Cookman at home. Boise St maybe. The Missouri series return game has been moved to St. Louis.

On the bright side…..facilities upgrades are forthcoming even if the Tigers are renters.
Link:
“Tigers Football and Basketball Facilities Upgrades”
 
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I live in DFW and can tell you that in general college football doesn't get a lot of push around here. It's all high school and Cowboys. Of the schools that get coverage, SMU gets zero There seems to be very little interest in that program at all. I would say it's on par with the interest in North Texas around here, which again is practically nothing. So thy might think they are gaining the DFW market, but I don't think that means much. Same thing for the AAC and North Texas.

I don't get the sense that MT even has a plan for moving up. Is Massaro even thinking about a logical plan to actual achieve anything more than what we have? It sure would be nice to share that with fans. But it feels like we are content to just sit here, run a clean program, go to a no-name bowl each year and watch as the program dwindle into nothing. I hate watching it just slowly turn into nothing. Isn't it obvious that it's slowly going down the drain?
 
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Sommy said:
I don't get the sense that MT even has a plan for moving up. Is Massaro even thinking about a logical plan to actual achieve anything more than what we have? It sure would be nice to share that with fans. But it feels like we are content to just sit here, run a clean program, go to a no-name bowl each year and watch as the program dwindle into nothing. I hate watching it just slowly turn into nothing. Isn't it obvious that it's slowly going down the drain?
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That's why it's beyond important for BuildBlue now and to keep winning those no name bowl games now.

Once the CFP 12 team starts, those no name bowls will be even worse. No one will be paying attention. We've got to take advantage of the momentum we have, win champs now, build now to be ready for the next round of realignment. I really really really hope McP especially sees the importance of the next few years.
Otherwise, you think we are behind now...
 
Generally agree with all of this, however the highest ranked G5 gets a spot in the playoff. Western, Liberty and we will be the big dogs in the new CUSA. If we can dominate the rest of the conference and pick off our OOC, then I think our chances of getting into the playoff are better here than the AAC or Sunbelt.

Otherwise what is the end game if we even do want to get into a "better" conference? We're not going P5, so part of me thinks stand pat and dominate where you are.

That being said, if we got a lifeboat other than the MAC.....I would be for going.
 
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I think AAC HAS to be the goal. PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC will likely look to poach teams from the AAC soon to boost their own conferences. That will open some spots in the AAC that we really should be pushing to get into.

The challenge is, are we working on an in depth plan to actually have a pathway to get a look by the AAC?
 
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Sommy said:
I think AAC HAS to be the goal. PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC will likely look to poach teams from the AAC soon to boost their own conferences. That will open some spots in the AAC that we really should be pushing to get into.

The challenge is, are we working on an in depth plan to actually have a pathway to get a look by the AAC?
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the problem is there are no more teams in the AAC worthy of P5, Memphis is probably the closest. After that there is a fall off. the MWC will have more teams poached as they have better all around athletic departments and will probably lose schools to the PAC12, especially if the B12 comes in snatches AZ/AZst and Utah/Colorado. USF may get a look because of Florida, but that's it
 
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Us getting to the AAC won't be easy. It has been said Memphis would say no to us, and they aren't going anywhere without some major ACC in 2035 or so craziness when that deal is up. The new B12 media deal allows for $ to stay the same per school for expansion...if it is a P5 school. Adding Memphis would lower the $ per school. They aren't gonna agree to that. Plus Yormark has said he wants the B12 to be in all 4 timezones.

If the new P12 media deal sucks, I could see the B12 pulling more than the 4 corners and the P12 being forced to merge with the MWC making 9 conferences until the new WAC/ASC makes it 10 again.

I see the line of thought that we are ok where we are at. BUT the thing is we can't assume the above will happen. Did anyone see UCLA/USC going B1G? SMU could wind up P12 and their closest school is CU at 820 miles.
We have to consistently commit to facilities improvements and program improvements otherwise we will get caught with our pants down which no matter what our admin says, I 1000000% belive McP especially didn't see any of the past two years of realignment happening. Nothing he has done shows that he did.
 
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MidTennMtneer said:
We have to consistently commit to facilities improvements and program improvements otherwise we will get caught with our pants down which no matter what our admin says, I 1000000% belive McP especially didn't see any of the past two years of realignment happening. Nothing he has done shows that he did.
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Stooge mcphee has demonstrated that his concerns are sucking up to the CCP, polishing his 7-wood, and developing programs for tsu. Football means nothing to him.

The fact that he has been at the at school for so long leads me to believe that he has under-the-table benefits that he does not want to give up.
 
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I’ll say it now, if SMU and SDSU leave to go to the P12 I hope we don’t go to the AAC. You’ve got to think that Memphis and ECU will consider the SBC. Do we really want to tie ourselves to the CUSA6 and what’s left? Temple might call it a day and bolt. I feel like they might implode and be a bigger train wreck than us.
 
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ewglenn said:
I’ll say it now, if SMU and SDSU leave to go to the P12 I hope we don’t go to the AAC. You’ve got to think that Memphis and ECU will consider the SBC. Do we really want to tie ourselves to the CUSA6 and what’s left? Temple might call it a day and bolt. I feel like they might implode and be a bigger train wreck than us.
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I can 100% see that argument. I truly think long term the SBC, MAC, and MWC (even if they merge with the PAC) are the most stable. And why? Similarity in schools and geography. They found their niche and stuck with it.

CUSA and the AAC are all over the place.

We really have no idea what is going to happen around us which is 100% reason to be prepared for anything and NOT be content. I absolutely think we belong in the Belt. But that ship has most likely sailed. But again, when we left them, we were "moving up" and my how that has changed.
 
IF ECU, NAVY, Temple leaves look for a East Coast Conference adding UCONN, UMass, Delaware, Villanova, Marshall, JMU and ODU join up. With Maybe, App, Coastal and UNCC. ECU always wants to be in a regional conference. That would be a bus ride league minus 2 teams for football.

ewglenn said:
I’ll say it now, if SMU and SDSU leave to go to the P12 I hope we don’t go to the AAC. You’ve got to think that Memphis and ECU will consider the SBC. Do we really want to tie ourselves to the CUSA6 and what’s left? Temple might call it a day and bolt. I feel like they might implode and be a bigger train wreck than us.
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MTLynn said:
Stooge mcphee has demonstrated that his concerns are sucking up to the CCP, polishing his 7-wood, and developing programs for tsu. Football means nothing to him.

The fact that he has been at the at school for so long leads me to believe that he has under-the-table benefits that he does not want to give up.
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I think you forgot one for your McPhee list: loving getting in front of any camera at the devil worshipping grammys.
 
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There's a guy (can't remember his twitter handle) that's seems to be on point / well connected to all this realignment stuff.

My guess (based on his tweets) and a little bit of thought is that you'll see Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and one other school go B12, Stanford / Cal and / or OR & WA go B10, and leave the remaining schools to fend for themselves.

It's funny. A few years ago, I figured the B12 would try to sneak into the TN market (via Memphis State), but they seem to be going west.
 
AustinLewis said:
There's a guy (can't remember his twitter handle) that's seems to be on point / well connected to all this realignment stuff.

My guess (based on his tweets) and a little bit of thought is that you'll see Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and one other school go B12, Stanford / Cal and / or OR & WA go B10, and leave the remaining schools to fend for themselves.

It's funny. A few years ago, I figured the B12 would try to sneak into the TN market (via Memphis State), but they seem to be going west.
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It's crazy how all this is working. The B12 is currently #3 in media revenue. Yormark is a marketing business genius, but man he makes it tough. He wants to be the first conference with teams in all four timezones so essentially there will be 12 full hours of B12 football on Saturdays. Until the ACC implodes in a decade and the B12 picks up who SEC/B1G don't, the B12 will be more central/western.

The disadvantage to that was pointed out in a Q&A by Wren Baker last week, now WVU's AD. WVU is bottom in overall revenue but top in travel expenses in the league. Adding western schools will just increase that. He's changing how seating is, adding in box seats at venues, and developing rental plans for parties etc. to generate income. But what choice does WVU have? Drop down? Yeah, that ain't happening.

All these crazy non-regional conferences just make it harder for schools that aren't like Texas with $160m in athletic revenue in 2021. (For reference in WVU was $72m, MTSU was $31m) It's spreading the gap farther even within their own conferences.
 
MidTennMtneer said:
It's crazy how all this is working. The B12 is currently #3 in media revenue. Yormark is a marketing business genius, but man he makes it tough. He wants to be the first conference with teams in all four timezones so essentially there will be 12 full hours of B12 football on Saturdays. Until the ACC implodes in a decade and the B12 picks up who SEC/B1G don't, the B12 will be more central/western.

The disadvantage to that was pointed out in a Q&A by Wren Baker last week, now WVU's AD. WVU is bottom in overall revenue but top in travel expenses in the league. Adding western schools will just increase that. He's changing how seating is, adding in box seats at venues, and developing rental plans for parties etc. to generate income. But what choice does WVU have? Drop down? Yeah, that ain't happening.

All these crazy non-regional conferences just make it harder for schools that aren't like Texas with $160m in athletic revenue in 2021. (For reference in WVU was $72m, MTSU was $31m) It's spreading the gap farther even within their own conferences.
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That's the problem with the "national" / 3-4 time zone conferences. Only a handful of programs in each conference have the $$$ to pull that off. And the rest are just left to watch.

And, bringing it back around to MT / CUSA, that's the problem with CUSA, SBC, & the A-Sun & WAC alliance : It's too spread out. FIU doesn't have the $$$ to fly the softball team to UTEP / NMSU every year; EKU is going to fly their track team to Utah Tech for meets. For the "non-revenue" sports, that's a lot of $$$ spent on travel

If there was a geographic realignment focused on creating sustainable regional rivalries, the $$$ used for team travel could go toward facilities, recruiting, coaches, etc. IMO, attendance would go up for games because, let's be honest, EKU MBB aren't flying to Utah Tech for a Saturday game, but they would drive down to WKU.

And the $$$ gets larger on the P5 level, WVU doesn't have the budget to compete with B10 (Ohio State, Michigan) and flying non-revenue teams out to Phoenix for a Big 12 conference match against Arizona State adds up FAST.
 
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It'll all break apart again eventually. There's simply not enough dollars outside of the SEC/B10 behemoths to sustain a 4 time zone conference.

It's a shame that egos can't be put aside to re-organize based on geographic lines which is almost inevitable. It's just going to take a lot more time.

As for Memphis, I've been keeping an eye on them as I think we are in at least a position to backfill when they leave - but I'm not sure it's going to happen. From a university and an athletic perspective, they should have gone to the B12 (there's some word that they were the pick until Houston had a mega-booster step up an promise some big $$$$'s if they took Houston instead) and they should be on deck.

But the problem with Memphis is the city of Memphis, and I'm not sure any conference is going to want to step into that. I really like the city - Beale street is great, the food is great, there's a lot of history and culture and it should be a destination city - certainly better than Houston, Cincy, etc.

Every city has it's problems, but I think Memphis has perhaps the worst of them from a PR standpoint. When they have inevitable city issues like crime or whatever, it's just seems to blow up into national headlines and terrible PR - that poor jogger who got kidnapped and murdered, that lunatic who was driving around shooting people on live-streams, those 5 cops that beat that poor kid to death - it just creates such a negative impression that I think conferences would shy away.

Another reason why we need to get our $h!t together as fast as possible - if some conference has a spot and it wants a team in a growing metro area in a growing state in a city that doesn't have bad juju - we could jump Memphis.
 
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RaiderDoug said:
It'll all break apart again eventually. There's simply not enough dollars outside of the SEC/B10 behemoths to sustain a 4 time zone conference.

It's a shame that egos can't be put aside to re-organize based on geographic lines which is almost inevitable. It's just going to take a lot more time.

As for Memphis, I've been keeping an eye on them as I think we are in at least a position to backfill when they leave - but I'm not sure it's going to happen. From a university and an athletic perspective, they should have gone to the B12 (there's some word that they were the pick until Houston had a mega-booster step up an promise some big $$$$'s if they took Houston instead) and they should be on deck.

But the problem with Memphis is the city of Memphis, and I'm not sure any conference is going to want to step into that. I really like the city - Beale street is great, the food is great, there's a lot of history and culture and it should be a destination city - certainly better than Houston, Cincy, etc.

Every city has it's problems, but I think Memphis has perhaps the worst of them from a PR standpoint. When they have inevitable city issues like crime or whatever, it's just seems to blow up into national headlines and terrible PR - that poor jogger who got kidnapped and murdered, that lunatic who was driving around shooting people on live-streams, those 5 cops that beat that poor kid to death - it just creates such a negative impression that I think conferences would shy away.

Another reason why we need to get our $h!t together as fast as possible - if some conference has a spot and it wants a team in a growing metro area in a growing state in a city that doesn't have bad juju - we could jump Memphis.
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I could see EKU as the 14th in the MAC or 11th in CUSA, I don't think the other ASUN/WAC schools are ready to transition. EKU starts next year, did you see the schedule KSU put together for the 1st year of transition? only 9 games and 2 D2 and 1 nonNCAA school. EKU has spent the money to get ready on facilities and are remodeling the Basketball arena now. So if CUSA is being proactive you kill the ASUN/WAC and take CArk and EKU.
 
This is why SBC will be successful. They did it right when we left.

It's a shame that egos can't be put aside to re-organize based on geographic lines which is almost inevitable.
 
We made the move to CUSA and have literally stepped backwards.

These leaders have cornered us into a situation where no one will take us and we are stuck in a joke of a conference. But the main thing is…win the joke of the conference and that ain’t happening with either guy.

SpaceRaider said:
The problem is that there is absolutely a lack of urgency on the part of MT's leadership. It's like they think and have conducted themselves as if they have all the f'n time in the world. That happens when there is no accountability or consequences.
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It almost seems that the athletic and Univ leadership celebrated acceptance into C-USA and concluded there was nothing left to do. It almost seemed like leadership figured MT had arrived and could just now cruise or coast to success in NCAA D1 athletics and C-USA since MT had arrived. It's like they didn't get the memo that C-USA was not the same conference that it was 10 years before. It struck me that perhaps MT being left behind in an eviscerated C-USA might have been the wake up call to leadership. I guess time will tell.
 
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The one thing going for us is that as of right now, most of the CUSA schools have revenue/budgets very similar. B12 revenues have a range of $72m to $152m. CUSA current is $22m-$38m.

For reference the new FCS jumps Jacksonville St is the only one under $20m.

So all CUSA schools are having to pay with it all affecting them the same.

I certainly hope it settles out and becomes regional again. I've said before though if CUSA did add an Arkansas school at least all states would border each other with. Better than some other conferences.

Distance wise our farthest is FIU to NMSU 1,981 miles.
AAC - Temple to UTSA 1,743
SBC - ODU to TX St 1,523
B12 - UCF to BYU 2,334
 
SpaceRaider said:
The problem is that there is absolutely a lack of urgency on the part of MT's leadership. It's like they think and have conducted themselves as if they have all the f'n time in the world. That happens when there is no accountability or consequences.
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The real problem is they (the admins we still have in place) have been extremely well compensated for delivering the product we’ve been stuck with for almost 20 years without having to work towards improving it.
 
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FranklinRaider315 said:
The real problem is they (the admins we still have in place) have been extremely well compensated for delivering the product we’ve been stuck with for almost 20 years without having to work towards improving it.
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Are their salaries higher than our peers? What do McPhee and Massaro make vs WKU’s President and AD?
 
crposton said:
So Mcphee and Massaro make less than all of the ADs and Presidents at those universities. Highly compensated, but on par with peer universities.
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I thought Mcphee got a raise to 500k and Massero was over 350k?
 
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