I think you are pretty much on target. I also agree they will likely beat one of the best teams, but they will likely lose to teams to which they have have no business losing.
Someone on here recently said this is a good team but not a great team. I think that is exactly right. Frustratingly this team has the talent to be a great team, but they just don't put that great performance together consistently night in and night out.
I'm sad to say that for me the malaise, indifference, apathy, and generally directionless university leadership has started to rub off on my overall attitude towards basketball. This has long been the case with football, and I was afraid this attitude would seep into basketball. For me, it has.
MT bball went from bottom of the barrel to a great run last season. I give the coaches and players credit for the turnaround. It was a great run, but not necessarily a great team eg NCAA Tournament type team. With CNM keeping the team together, I had really hoped this team would hit the ground running this season into a great season and great team. Instead, there is too much inconsistency especially marked by a lack of discipline and too many stretches of poor focus and effort.
While I'm not hating on this team, I'm not all fired up expecting great things either. I'm guessing I'll generally keep up with the team this season, but it's just sad and disappointing in that the low energy seemingly indifferent university leadership seems to be effectively seeping into almost all areas of MT life.