FOOTBALL ESPN FPI has probability of a win less than 50% in 7 of first 8 games
- Thread starter SpaceRaider
- Start date
Seems like ESPN is saying that, I think I have said earlier that don't be surprised if MT starts 0-2.
This season reminds me a little of 2002, when we had three power schools and an ovc team on the out of conference portion of the schedule and we started out 0-5 in the season after a record setting QB graduated.
Wes Counts was on the mark in 2001. When we opened at Alabama in 02 we looked incredible, we attended the TN game and I thought we played well.. The SEMO game was definitely a surprise. If I remember correctly we had a juco qb.. Andrico Hines & Rashard Lee was a stud RB.
We did beat Vandy that year! So maybe we beat Duke.
We did beat Vandy that year! So maybe we beat Duke.
ESPN had us losing 75% of our first 8 games last year. We were projected to lose all 3 P5 games and we were slated to lose to Marshall, FAU and FIU. So they thought we'd go 1-7 or 2-6 in those games. So nothing new. We were supposed to lose to UAB in the final home game of the regular season too.
That's not statistically the correct way to interpret FPI. If you notice at the top, they have our projected win total between 5-6. With several of those early games in the high 20s-low 40s win percentage range, FPI expects that we win either one or two of those.
And that's assuming that you think the inputs FPI is using are sound. (I question, for example, only being at 36% to beat WKU). While I understand why so many outlets are projecting a drop-off for us, when I look at the roster and consider our history under Stock, I don't have a difficult time imagining another 6-7-8 win season.
And that's assuming that you think the inputs FPI is using are sound. (I question, for example, only being at 36% to beat WKU). While I understand why so many outlets are projecting a drop-off for us, when I look at the roster and consider our history under Stock, I don't have a difficult time imagining another 6-7-8 win season.
Casey is spot on. We've hit those numbers in the last 8 seasons with different QB's, WR's and even with a much weaker D than we have now. Stock may not be a championship coach but he does seem to know how get a winning season no matter who's on the roster. 2011 was a year where we were depleted all over and had really bad position coaches too along with our OC choking out his girlfriend. This year won't be a 2011 no matter what goes down.
36% chance of beating WKU. LOL.
36% chance of beating WKU. LOL.
Sounds like the same group that was saying we would have a .500 basketball team or better before the season. Replace a 4-yr starting QB is the hardest thing to do in all of sports and that's with a line. We have so many question marks on the OL. This is a four win team. I can get to four but not much more than that.
Correct MT01- but the line has been questionable for some time now. It’s not like we are having to replace a bunch of road-graders. For all we know, could be addition by subtraction. Also- whoever wins the QB job (I have my prediction but who knows) is liable to be more of a dual-threat type than Brent was. He scrambled out of necessity; it wasn’t in his wheelhouse, and he took way too many hits (which caused him to not truly be the four-year starter you described). 2017-2018 Brent was a significant regression from 2015-2016 Brent.
I get where you’re coming from- but as frustrating as so many of these seasons have been, realize that we’ve only been under .500 once in the last decade. And that’s with some teams that I don’t believe were any more talented than this one. This bunch finds a way to win half their games- likely four wins against the dregs, and finding two more somewhere else.
I get where you’re coming from- but as frustrating as so many of these seasons have been, realize that we’ve only been under .500 once in the last decade. And that’s with some teams that I don’t believe were any more talented than this one. This bunch finds a way to win half their games- likely four wins against the dregs, and finding two more somewhere else.
TSU is not that great of a 1aa team. They went 4-5 last year went into OT with UT Martin. If we were playing NDSU, I'd be sweating but if we're scared about TSU, we need to shut the whole thing down now.
Replacing a 4 year starting QB may be a tough task but come on, on our level it ain't that much of a drop off. Brent was statistically great but in win totals, he's not much different than any other QB we've had in the Stock era. Dasher was the only one that got us more than 8 wins. OHara has the tools to do just fine if he's the guy. He has talent and speed. Just needs to work with the 1's longer than 5 minutes. If Johnson can throw and make good reads, he might be a better fit because of his size. 6'5 236lbs is Tebow size.
Replacing a 4 year starting QB may be a tough task but come on, on our level it ain't that much of a drop off. Brent was statistically great but in win totals, he's not much different than any other QB we've had in the Stock era. Dasher was the only one that got us more than 8 wins. OHara has the tools to do just fine if he's the guy. He has talent and speed. Just needs to work with the 1's longer than 5 minutes. If Johnson can throw and make good reads, he might be a better fit because of his size. 6'5 236lbs is Tebow size.
I could see it either way on those toss-up games. As in I could see us winning none and I could see us winning 3.
I agree. But we have more talent now than we did in 12,13, 14, 15, and 16. We certainly have a better defense with better players besides 1 or 2 guys like Byard. Other than that, we have upgraded across the board and with leadership as well.
On Offense, Franklin is better than Buster. We will be just fine. We also have more speed coming in.
I think we win at least 3 of those 5. FIU and Marshall at home gives us a distinct advantage. WKU and FAU are reeling. FAU is gonna have to replace the best RB they've ever had and their QB ain't that great. They have more question marks than we do. The Kiffin effect is starting to take hold down there. UNT is not invulnerable by any means. I think playing 3 P5's make us a tougher ball team than the rest of the conference. It certainly did last year. It will this year. we've played more P5 teams in the last 5 years than any other team in the conference. Playing Michigan will make us better than any other opponent could.
Just gotta see how we gel in the first 3 games.
It all depends on how good O’Hara or Johnson are and if we can run the ball better. Have a lot of freshman Olinemen that are 6’4”-6’6” and over 300 lbs. We recruited well on the oline. All we have to do is block well and I have confidence in the skill players to make the plays. If we can shore up the CB position could be the beat defense we have had in a while.
So you think coming off a Michigan ass whoopin and they are playing Miss Valley the week before at home, you don't think this is a game to worry about?. All then FCS schools have put up points against this team. You are breaking in a new QB, this is the same TSU team that had Vandy beat but let them win. The same Vandy team that whipped MT ass for 5 years. This is the definition of a trap game for MT. This was the same thought process for McNeese, FAU, SEMO and a APSU and UT Martin team that keep coming back. There will be a big crowd at that game, more than likely 50/50 crowd split. TSU doesn't fear MT, they feel they are equals or better than MT.
