According to verbalcommits.com (all I have to go on) MT only offered yesterday, Simons committed immediately, and we were his only offer.
If verbalcommits.com is correct MT has offered and is still "in on" 6 potential freshmen for next years class with an above 2 star rating. Time will tell but I've been hoping that the success last year will show in recruiting: Fewer JUCOs, fewer players with a 2 star rating (which can be anything from someone breathing - potential walkon - to someone with the potential to be a Giddy Potts), and the ability to get "in on" the occasional local high-profile recruit.
This commit, should it hold, does nothing to show fans that Davis has been able to capitalize on the recent success to upgrade recruiting.
I would encourage you to not worry so much about what the "expert" perception is of our recruiting. My guess is VerbalCommits didn't know about Simons until yesterday, and so they put up a profile quickly to show him as a Division I commitment (not criticizing them, just the nature of their business).
In the bigger picture, however, I think the recruiting philosophy we have deployed in the last 5-10 years is ideal for our program.
By my count, below is a list of every player we have signed dating back to the 2010 signing class. I may be missing a couple, but for the most part this should be everybody during that span. For convenience, I am counting Division I transfers as part of the class preceding their first year of eligibility (i.e. Laron Dendy is included with 2011 since he was not eligible to play until the 2011-12 season). I am also giving each player a very simplistic grade of 1 (miss - player didn't make it to campus, didn't pan out, dismissed from the team, etc.), 2 (productive role player - not a star but a significant contributor during career), or 3 (star player or consistently reliable performer):
2010
Kerry Hammonds (High School - 3)
Jason Jones (Division I Transfer - 2)
Jimmy Oden (Division I Transfer - 2)
Shawn Jones (High School - 3)
Jeffrey Simmons (High School - 1)
Melvin Baker (JC - 1)
Kyle Hunt (JC - 1)
2011
Julian Edmondson (High School - 1)
Torin Walker (Division I Transfer - 1)
Marcos Knight (JC - 3)
Bruce Massey (JC - 3)
Ray Cintron (JC - 3)
LaRon Dendy (Division I Transfer - 3)
Jacquez Rozier (High School - 2)
2012
Tweety Knight (JC - 3)
Neiko Hunter (JC - 3)
Phillip Jones (High School - 1)
2013
Jaqawn Raymon (Division I Transfer - 2)
Ronald Ross (JC - 1)
Tharone Chilton (JC - 1)
Tyrek Coger (High School - 1)
Josh Phillips (High School - 1)
Reggie Upshaw (High School - 3)
Marcus Tarrance (JC - 2)
Eric Wortham (High School - 1)
2014
Giddy Potts (High School - 3)
Darnell Harris (JC - 3)
Perrin Buford (JC - 3)
D.J. Jones (JC - 1)
Ed Simpson (High School - 2)
Jacob Ivory (High School - 1)
Xavier Habersham (JC - 2)
Jalen Steele (Division I Transfer - 1)
JaQuel Richmond (High School - 1)
2015
Jalen Perry (High School - 1)
Quay Copeland (JC - ??)
Karl Gamble (High School - ??)
Justin Coleman (JC - 1)
2016
Brandon Walters (JC - ??)
Calvin Davis (JC - ??
Tyrik Dixon (High School - ??)
Davion Thomas (High School - ??)
Antwain Johnson (JC - ??)
Jacorey Williams (Division I Transfer - ??)
2017
Troy Simons (JC - ??)
Donovan Sims (High School - ??)
In summary, since 2010, we have signed 20 JC players, 19 high school players, and 7 Division I transfers. Of that total of 46 players, I have assigned ratings to 36 of them. By a significant margin, the JC players and D-1 transfers have been the more productive players. JC transfers have achieved an average 2.07 rating, D1 transfers have an average 1.83 rating, while HS players have an average 1.67 rating. Obviously, every category has individual players that have been huge successes and huge disappointments.
I conclude from this data that we need to certainly take high school players that we believe have upside and/or that we believe can provide 4-year stability, but the place where we can gain the best supply of upper level talent is in JC and Division I transfers. These players are older and more developed (some of them perhaps late bloomers or players that added needed maturity post-high school), and they are recruited by many of our peers and rivals. If Perrin Buford, Darnell Harris, Neiko Hunter, Marcos Knight, Bruce Massey, etc. aren't playing for us, they will be playing against us (and beating us).
In looking at some of the other premier mid-major programs, we see several following similar "unconventional" recruiting philosophies:
Of Wichita State's 13-man roster last year, 9 players were either Division I transfers, JC transfers, or players that played 1-year of post-graduate basketball in prep school before going to WSU.
Of Stephen F. Austin's 13-man roster last year, 7 players were either JC Transfers or prep school products.
For St. Mary's, 6 of their 13 players last year were from Australia, so they certainly aren't recruiting "conventionally". An additional 2 players came as JC and Division I transfers.
Butler's roster for the upcoming season includes 4 Division I transfers.
That's obviously not an exhaustive look at what other top mid-major programs are doing, but it's incorrect to view our recruiting approach as "patchwork" or "band-aid" and to assume that other top mid-majors are this shining picture of stability with nothing but top quality high school prospects.
I just don't care what ratings services say about our players. I would rather look at the historical data of how our signees perform and learn from the trends. There is not a realistic scenario where we are going to be beating out competitors for top 150 high school talent on a consistent basis, but we can absolutely compete and win prospects that develop into impact players at the mid-to-high major level by gaining experience either in JC or other Division I programs.
